曹德旺的一句话前两年在互联网上掀起过轩然大波。这位著名的玻璃大王曾直言不讳地说过，"房子不就是一堆砖头水泥嘛，有啥值钱 的？"当时很多人觉得他这是在唱反调，甚至有人认为他看不起房地产行业。但现在到了2025年，再看他这些话，似乎真的已经成了现实。 最近一段时间，房地产市场的各种信号都在印证曹德旺这些年的观点。二手房价格连跌21个月，这是一个让人触目惊心的数字。全国房价没 有一个城市上涨，所有城市都在下行。恒大、碧桂园这样曾经的房地产巨头陷入困境，烂尾楼增多，业主维权成了家常便饭。建材市场冷清 得可以拍鬼片，装修公司开始转行，家具城在疯狂促销。这些现象都在说明一件事，房地产的黄金时代确实已经结束了。 而在这场变局中，最受冲击的是那些手握多套房的家庭。根据央行的数据，在有房的家庭中，有41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上的住房。这个数 字背后代表什么呢？代表着几亿人的财富配置结构。这些人中有的是自发的投资者，有的是被迫的持有者。但无论是哪一种，他们现在都面 临着一个共同的问题。 这会带来什么后果呢？供大于求，价格就会下跌。越晚卖越便宜，这已经成了市场的共识。目前广州、南京、重庆等城市的二手房挂牌量已 经分别接近20万套 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chaoyang District in Beijing is set to significantly increase its residential land supply over the next three years, with a total of 30 plots being made available, attracting over 30 major developers and financial institutions [1] Land Supply Plan - Northern Area: Approximately 500,000 square meters, which is relatively low [3] - Eastern Area: About 830,000 square meters [4] - Southern Area: The largest supply at around 1,100,000 square meters, indicating a ratio of supply among the three areas of approximately 2:3:4 [5] Market Implications - Northern Area: Limited land supply may stabilize or even increase property prices, leading to a slower turnover in the second-hand housing market, making it a more exclusive area for high-net-worth individuals [6] - Southern Area: Increased supply may lead to more affordable prices, attracting first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes, along with improved infrastructure such as schools and hospitals [6] - Accelerated Demolition and Relocation: The government plans to speed up demolition and relocation processes, which could lead to a revitalized urban landscape and increased demand for housing as residents receive compensation [6] Broader Context - Recent trends in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen show a rise in "land kings," boosting local real estate confidence, with Chaoyang being a prime candidate for new high-value land sales [7] - The recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasized urban renewal and development of urban clusters, indicating potential future changes in policy that could impact the real estate market [9] Future Outlook - With central government planning and local initiatives, the Beijing real estate market, particularly in Chaoyang, is expected to undergo significant changes in the near future [11]