摩根大通表示，《求是》杂志的评论文章提振了投资者的希望，认为在去年缺乏任何实质政策之后，该 评论呼吁政策应"一次性给足，不能采取添油战术"，认为官方今年对房地产市场的论述/基调或终于有 所转变。鉴于自去年下半年以来，房价和销售持续恶化，摩通认为政策制定者考虑新的论述/方向是合 乎逻辑的。但认为仅凭该文章尚未足以表明官方立场的改变，而下一个政策时间窗口是3月的"两会"和4 月的政治局会议。 金吾财讯 | 内房股延续升势，截至发稿，龙湖集团(00960)涨4.37%，富力地产(02777)涨3.77%，雅居乐 集团(03383)涨3.57%，中国海外发展(00688)涨3.04%，华润置地(01109)涨3.82%，中国金茂(00817)涨 2.75%，融创中国(01918)涨2.27%。 来源：金吾财讯 摩通表示，自2021年以来，中国房地产板块持续跑输大市。对于今年，在基本情景中(假设没有实质性 政策)，摩通预测下跌趋势将持续(销售额下降7%，房价下跌5%)。但当前市场环境(特别是如果疲弱的房 价拖累消费)增加了今年出现更大力度政策支持的可能性，因此摩通当前的预测存在上行风险。 ...

| BEKE 贝壳 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 16.060 + +0.300 +1.90% | | 收盘价 01/02 15:59 美东 | | 16.850 + 0.790 +4.92% | | 盘前价 01/05 04:03 美东 | | 二 24 4 5 8 9 月 ♥ | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 16.350 | 开盘价 16.180 | 成交量 1200.45万 | | 最低价 15.260 | 昨收价 15.760 | 成交额 1.91亿 | | 平均价 15.938 | 市盈率 M 37.79 | 总市值 187.7亿 (... ) | | 振 幅 6.92% | 市盈率(静) 32.58 | 总股本 11.69亿 | | 换手率 1.77% | 市净率 1.934 | 流通值 109.24亿 | | 52周最高 24.648 | 委 比 -- | 流通股 6.8亿 | | 52周最低 15.260 | 量 比 3.25 | 色 手 1股 | | 历史最高 75.056 | 股息TM 0.368 | 换股比率 3.00 | | 历史最低 6.910 | 股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that a recent commentary in the magazine "Qiushi" has raised investor hopes for a shift in policy regarding the real estate market, suggesting that substantial policy measures are needed rather than incremental changes [1] - Morgan Stanley notes that since the second half of last year, housing prices and sales have continued to decline, making it logical for policymakers to consider a new direction in their approach [1] - The next key policy windows are identified as the March Two Sessions and the April Politburo meeting, indicating that the commentary alone is not sufficient to confirm a change in the official stance [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's preferred stocks in the real estate sector include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, and China Jinmao, indicating a focus on these companies for potential investment opportunities [1] - The report suggests that Longfor Group offers the best risk-reward profile amid the anticipated rebound triggered by policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's stock price surged significantly due to the release of its semi-annual report, which alleviated market concerns regarding the company's debt pressure. The real estate sector is also benefiting from favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][2][3]. Company Performance - On August 25, Vanke's A-shares experienced a strong rally, reaching a peak increase of 9.15% by the end of the trading day, while its H-shares saw a rise of over 15% during the session [1][3]. - Vanke reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -12.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline [4]. - As of June 30, Vanke's net debt ratio stood at 90.4%, an increase of 9.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year, while its asset-liability ratio was 73.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [5]. Debt Management - Vanke has made progress in debt resolution, repaying 24.39 billion yuan of public market debt and has no foreign public debt maturing before 2027. The company has received substantial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, which has provided 23.88 billion yuan in loans [5][6]. - The management expressed confidence in managing upcoming debt pressures through a dual approach of external support and internal operations, including accelerating sales and optimizing asset management [5][6]. Industry Outlook - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing due to supportive policies, with expectations for a recovery in sales and funding as these policies are implemented [2][9]. - Recent policy changes in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and others have included easing purchase restrictions and enhancing financial support for homebuyers, which are expected to stimulate demand [8][9]. - Analysts believe that the combination of government support and improving market conditions will enhance investor sentiment and facilitate a recovery in the real estate sector [8][9].

Group 1: Real Estate Development Support - Fuzhou has issued 16 measures to support real estate project development, focusing on streamlining planning and construction approvals, optimizing floor area ratio calculations, and enhancing project management and acceptance mechanisms [1] - The measures aim to simplify development processes, reduce the burden on enterprises, and improve operational efficiency and capital recovery for local real estate companies [1] Group 2: Green Town's Bond Purchase - Greentown Real Estate Group announced that it has purchased bonds in the secondary market, with a total amount reaching 2.134 billion yuan, showcasing its commitment to maintaining bond value and protecting investor interests [2] - This action is expected to enhance the attractiveness and stability of Greentown's bonds in the market, setting a positive example for other real estate companies [2] Group 3: Longfor's Early Bond Redemption - Longfor Properties has received approval for the early redemption of its 2 billion yuan medium-term notes, demonstrating strong financial management and reduced debt pressure [3] - The early repayment is set to occur approximately three months ahead of schedule, which is likely to boost market confidence in quality private real estate firms [3] Group 4: Yuzhou Group's Restructuring Efforts - Yuzhou Group is accelerating its efforts to meet restructuring conditions, with a target completion date set for August 31, 2025, despite some conditions still pending [4] - Successful restructuring could optimize the company's debt structure, alleviate financial pressure, and enhance market confidence, potentially revitalizing project progress and sales [4] Group 5: Poly Developments' Convertible Bond Adjustment - Poly Developments announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its 8.5 billion yuan convertible bonds, lowering the price from 16.09 yuan to 15.92 yuan per share [5] - This adjustment benefits investors by reducing conversion costs and increasing potential returns, while also potentially alleviating the company's debt burden in the long term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a contraction, with a significant decrease in sales among top companies, indicating a shift in market dynamics and competitive landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 18,364.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.8% [1]. - Only four companies surpassed the 100 billion yuan sales threshold, a reduction of two compared to the previous year, with Poly Developments leading at 145.2 billion yuan [2]. - Despite overall poor performance, June saw a month-on-month sales increase of 14.7% for the top 100 companies, with nearly 60% reporting growth [2][3]. Group 2: Land Acquisition Trends - The focus of real estate companies is shifting towards core cities, with land transaction volumes increasing by 18.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The top 100 companies' total land acquisition amounted to 506.55 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - The structure of land acquisition is improving, with a decrease in local state-owned enterprises' share and an increase in central state-owned and private enterprises' participation [5]. Group 3: Policy Support and Market Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to receive continued policy support, with anticipated positive fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize the industry [6]. - There is potential for further reductions in mortgage rates and easing of purchase restrictions in certain cities to support homebuyers [6].