Group 1 - The real estate sector showed significant gains on the 15th, with notable stocks like Quzhou Development hitting the limit up for three consecutive days, and Xinda Real Estate rising over 9% [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities experienced a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline narrowed overall [1] - In July, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decrease of 0.2%, with Beijing stable, Shanghai up 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen down 0.3% and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are showing effects, with the market moving towards stabilization, although minor fluctuations in prices may still occur [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the implementation of previous real estate policies has enhanced local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city differentiation, with core cities likely to benefit from urban renewal [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5] Core Insights - New home sales in July 2025 experienced seasonal adjustments, with a month-on-month decline of 38.1% and a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, indicating a weakening market momentum [1] - The report highlights an expected acceleration in the implementation of real estate policies, particularly in first-tier cities and core areas, which may exceed expectations [1] - The sales threshold for the top 10 real estate companies increased significantly, while sales amounts for various tiers of companies showed a month-on-month decline [2] - The concentration of top real estate companies has increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.8% of total sales among the top 100 companies, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3] - Overall market activity in the real estate sector has declined, suggesting a traditional off-season, with a recommendation to focus on companies with advantages in core city layouts [4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In July 2025, new home sales saw a month-on-month decrease of 38.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, with cumulative sales from January to July down 14.4% year-on-year [1] Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies were 616 billion, 217 billion, 147 billion, 77 billion, and 25 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2] Company Concentration - The top 10 companies' sales accounted for 52.8% of the total sales of the top 100 companies, indicating a slight increase in concentration compared to the previous year [3] Market Activity - The market activity for new and second-hand homes in 44 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 34.4% and 28.2% respectively, indicating a seasonal downturn [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate developers with strong credit, good city locations, and quality products, as well as top property management companies and REITs benefiting from asset revaluation in Hong Kong [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing mixed trends, with some cities seeing price increases while others face declines, particularly in first-tier cities. The overall market shows signs of recovery, but challenges remain. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, new home prices in Shanghai and Changsha increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while prices in Ningbo and Zhanjiang rose by 0.3% [1] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new home prices, with Shanghai being an exception with a 0.4% increase [3] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new home prices rose by 6%, leading the 70 cities, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Second-hand Housing Market - In June, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing declines of 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [5] - Only Xining saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand home prices, with a rise of 0.1% [6] Group 3: Market Activity and Investment - From January to June, national real estate development investment totaled 46,658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% [9] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with residential sales area down by 3.7% [9] - The construction area of real estate projects fell by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in new developments [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a rebound in market activity in the second half of the year, particularly after July, as government policies are implemented to stimulate the market [8] - Core cities are optimizing real estate policies to better meet housing demands, which may stabilize the new home market [10]