地产板块15日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，衢州发展涨停斩获3连板，信达地产涨超9%，盘中一度涨停； 浙江东日涨超7%，盘中创出新高；特发服务等涨超4%。 国家统计局最新公布数据显示，2025年7月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下 降，同比降幅整体有所收窄。 具体来看，7月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其 中，北京持平，上海上涨0.3%，广州和深圳分别下降0.3%和0.6%。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同 比下降1.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。其中，上海上涨6.1%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降3.6%、 4.6%和2.2%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降2.8%和4.2%，降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.4 个百分点。70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅销售价格同比上涨城市有5个，比上月增加2个。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 光大证券表示，随着前期一揽子房地产政策的持续落地，地方政府楼市调控自主性提升，区域分化和城 市分化进一步加深，部分高能级核心城市将有望获益于城市更新，实现城市结构优化转型和内涵式发 展，逐步实现"止跌企稳"。 开源证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5] Core Insights - New home sales in July 2025 experienced seasonal adjustments, with a month-on-month decline of 38.1% and a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, indicating a weakening market momentum [1] - The report highlights an expected acceleration in the implementation of real estate policies, particularly in first-tier cities and core areas, which may exceed expectations [1] - The sales threshold for the top 10 real estate companies increased significantly, while sales amounts for various tiers of companies showed a month-on-month decline [2] - The concentration of top real estate companies has increased, with the top 10 companies accounting for 52.8% of total sales among the top 100 companies, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3] - Overall market activity in the real estate sector has declined, suggesting a traditional off-season, with a recommendation to focus on companies with advantages in core city layouts [4] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - In July 2025, new home sales saw a month-on-month decrease of 38.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, with cumulative sales from January to July down 14.4% year-on-year [1] Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 real estate companies were 616 billion, 217 billion, 147 billion, 77 billion, and 25 billion respectively, with the top 10 showing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2] Company Concentration - The top 10 companies' sales accounted for 52.8% of the total sales of the top 100 companies, indicating a slight increase in concentration compared to the previous year [3] Market Activity - The market activity for new and second-hand homes in 44 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 34.4% and 28.2% respectively, indicating a seasonal downturn [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate developers with strong credit, good city locations, and quality products, as well as top property management companies and REITs benefiting from asset revaluation in Hong Kong [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing mixed trends, with some cities seeing price increases while others face declines, particularly in first-tier cities. The overall market shows signs of recovery, but challenges remain. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, new home prices in Shanghai and Changsha increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while prices in Ningbo and Zhanjiang rose by 0.3% [1] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3% in new home prices, with Shanghai being an exception with a 0.4% increase [3] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new home prices rose by 6%, leading the 70 cities, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3] Group 2: Second-hand Housing Market - In June, second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing declines of 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [5] - Only Xining saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand home prices, with a rise of 0.1% [6] Group 3: Market Activity and Investment - From January to June, national real estate development investment totaled 46,658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% [9] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with residential sales area down by 3.7% [9] - The construction area of real estate projects fell by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in new developments [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a rebound in market activity in the second half of the year, particularly after July, as government policies are implemented to stimulate the market [8] - Core cities are optimizing real estate policies to better meet housing demands, which may stabilize the new home market [10]