Core Viewpoint - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, and Shanghai's "Good Housing" regulations have been implemented [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The transaction area of new houses in 68 cities increased by 27% month-on-month, but decreased by 22% year-on-year, totaling 2.45 million square meters in week 39 of 2025 [3] - The cumulative transaction area for new houses in 68 cities from the beginning of the year reached 88.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [3] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 1.88 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [3] Group 2: Land Transactions - The total planned construction area of land launched in 100 major cities was 22.71 million square meters, with a transaction area of 24.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32% [3] - First-tier cities saw a 53% year-on-year increase in land transaction area, totaling 1.19 million square meters [3] - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 7.78 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3] Group 3: Financing Trends - The issuance scale of domestic credit bonds increased by 140% month-on-month, reaching 14.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 203% [4] - The average weighted interest rate for credit bonds was 2.35%, a decrease of 16 basis points [4] - The cumulative issuance scale of credit bonds was 311.55 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [4] Group 4: Policy Initiatives - Shanghai's planning and natural resources bureau introduced 17 specific measures to enhance residential quality, focusing on urban design optimization, community environment improvement, and old community renovations [2] - The central government reported that 21,700 old urban communities were newly started in the first eight months of 2025, achieving 86.8% of the annual target [1][2]

数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 房地产 2025 年 09 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 《新房上海持续领涨，二手房价格同 比降幅缩小 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.16 《8 月销售降幅扩大，宽松政策后一线 新 房 成 交 回 暖 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.15 《新房成交面积同环比下降，主动适 应城市发展阶段新变化—行业周报》 -2025.9.14 新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投资同 比下降 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比增长，1-8 月房地产开发投 ...

Group 1 - The real estate sector showed significant gains on the 15th, with notable stocks like Quzhou Development hitting the limit up for three consecutive days, and Xinda Real Estate rising over 9% [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities experienced a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline narrowed overall [1] - In July, first-tier cities saw a month-on-month price decrease of 0.2%, with Beijing stable, Shanghai up 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen down 0.3% and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that various policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are showing effects, with the market moving towards stabilization, although minor fluctuations in prices may still occur [2] - According to Everbright Securities, the implementation of previous real estate policies has enhanced local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city differentiation, with core cities likely to benefit from urban renewal [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - New housing transaction area increased month-on-month, while regulatory policies continue to be relaxed. The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process [5][60] - The land transaction area decreased year-on-year, but the premium rate increased month-on-month. The credit bond issuance scale increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month [5][48] Summary by Sections Sales Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, the transaction area of new homes in 68 major cities was 2.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31% but a month-on-month increase of 11%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date reached 72.96 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [7][30] - The transaction area of second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of +2% [33] Investment Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 22.6 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. The premium rate for land transactions was 9% [38] - The Nanjing land auction market was active, successfully selling 13 residential land parcels, with premiums of 54.38%, 33.87%, and 0.17% for three parcels, totaling 6.8915 billion yuan [8][41] Financing Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% but a month-on-month decrease of 74%. The cumulative issuance scale was 228.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [48][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [3] - The sales decline is continuing to narrow, with land transaction volumes decreasing, which is suppressing new construction momentum [3] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a preliminary stabilization in sales, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 784.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a cumulative equity sales area of 57.67 million square meters, down 5.0% year-on-year [5] - The average sales price for the top 100 companies was 19,960.6 yuan per square meter [5] - The sales performance among different tiers of companies showed low differentiation, with the top 10, 50, and 100 companies experiencing year-on-year sales declines of 8.4%, 7.1%, and 7.3% respectively [6] Company Insights - Poly Development maintained the highest sales scale in the first quarter, with a total sales amount of 63 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] - China Overseas Property experienced a significant year-on-year sales decline of 22.9% [7] - Companies like Yuexiu Property and Huafa achieved impressive sales growth, with year-on-year increases of 42.0% and 44.8% respectively [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals in urban areas and those capable of capturing the demand from improvement-type customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery include New City Holdings and Longfor Group [8] - The second-hand housing transaction scale and penetration rate are expected to continue rising, indicating a promising outlook for the real estate after-service market [8]