Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - New housing transaction area increased month-on-month, while regulatory policies continue to be relaxed. The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process [5][60] - The land transaction area decreased year-on-year, but the premium rate increased month-on-month. The credit bond issuance scale increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month [5][48] Summary by Sections Sales Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, the transaction area of new homes in 68 major cities was 2.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31% but a month-on-month increase of 11%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date reached 72.96 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [7][30] - The transaction area of second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of +2% [33] Investment Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 22.6 million square meters, with a transaction area of 20.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23%. The premium rate for land transactions was 9% [38] - The Nanjing land auction market was active, successfully selling 13 residential land parcels, with premiums of 54.38%, 33.87%, and 0.17% for three parcels, totaling 6.8915 billion yuan [8][41] Financing Sector - In the 31st week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% but a month-on-month decrease of 74%. The cumulative issuance scale was 228.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8% [48][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [3] - The sales decline is continuing to narrow, with land transaction volumes decreasing, which is suppressing new construction momentum [3] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a preliminary stabilization in sales, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 784.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a cumulative equity sales area of 57.67 million square meters, down 5.0% year-on-year [5] - The average sales price for the top 100 companies was 19,960.6 yuan per square meter [5] - The sales performance among different tiers of companies showed low differentiation, with the top 10, 50, and 100 companies experiencing year-on-year sales declines of 8.4%, 7.1%, and 7.3% respectively [6] Company Insights - Poly Development maintained the highest sales scale in the first quarter, with a total sales amount of 63 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] - China Overseas Property experienced a significant year-on-year sales decline of 22.9% [7] - Companies like Yuexiu Property and Huafa achieved impressive sales growth, with year-on-year increases of 42.0% and 44.8% respectively [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals in urban areas and those capable of capturing the demand from improvement-type customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery include New City Holdings and Longfor Group [8] - The second-hand housing transaction scale and penetration rate are expected to continue rising, indicating a promising outlook for the real estate after-service market [8]