2025年前三季度的宏观经济和房地产数据出来了。 国民经济运行总体平稳，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%。 房地产层面，国房景气持续回落，开发投资、销售同比降幅均在扩大。 具体来看，前三季度商品房销售面积累计降幅5.5%，较上月降幅扩大0.8个百分点；商品房销售金额同比下降7.9%，较上月降幅扩大0.6个百分点；全国房 地产开发投资同比下降13.9%，降幅较1-8月扩大1个百分点。 在楼市去库存的背景下，新房供应约束是下半年以来新房销售降幅进一步扩大的主因，适度的同比下调不必过于担心，保持整体市场的供求平稳，也是房 地产市场止跌回稳的重要标志。 不过，有两个积极的信号，一个是9月新房成交规模环比回升，另一个是9月各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。这意味着，在中央加快 推进城市高质量发展和高品质住房建设的过程中，行业供求关系仍在持续向好改善。 进一步拉长时间线来看，2024年四季度市场进入回稳周期后，前期积压的住房需求已完成入市释放，行业整体库存压力再度凸显，各地稳市场政策逐渐显 现边际效应递减特征，行业回稳仍需蓄力攻坚。 新房成交规模环比季节性回升 前三季度新房累计成交同比降幅持续扩大，前三季度商 ...

华泰证券指出，供需结合来看，房地产行业中长期"止跌回稳"的基础正在构建，但要全面达成仍需要时 间。展望下半年，我们认为政策发力方向可能包括：1、稳定房价预期是第一步；2、更有效地激活购房 需求；3、优化收储发力去库存；4、关注城市更新资金来源。我们更看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市 复苏节奏，继续推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的"三好"地产开发商，分红与业绩稳健的头部 物管公司，以及受益于香港资产重估逻辑的香港本地地产股。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that from January to May 2025, the national new residential property sales area was 35,315 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a sales value of 34,091 billion yuan, down 3.8%. The decline in sales has expanded compared to the previous month, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [5] - The report indicates that the average transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 173.64 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%. However, the average transaction area for first-tier cities showed a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, while second-tier cities experienced a decline of 15% [6][14] - The second-hand housing market saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.4% in transaction area, with 20 cities reporting a transaction area of 228.53 million square meters last week [7][24] - The land market showed that 100 major cities had 51 new residential land supplies and 43 transactions last week, with an average floor price of 6,409 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 5.35% [29] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities was 173.64 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%. The average transaction area for first-tier cities was 55.99 million square meters, up 9.3% year-on-year [6][14] - The second-hand housing market in 20 cities reported a transaction area of 228.53 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.4% [7][24] - The land market saw 51 new residential land supplies and 43 transactions, with an average floor price of 6,409 yuan per square meter [29] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index fell by 1.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.25%. The report notes that the real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 by 1.51 percentage points [32] - The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 3.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, which increased by 0.89% [32]