Economic Overview - The national economy is operating smoothly, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1] Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market continues to decline, with significant year-on-year decreases in both development investment and sales. Specifically, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 5.5%, and sales revenue decreased by 7.9% [2][3] - In the context of inventory reduction, the supply of new homes has constrained sales further in the second half of the year, but a moderate year-on-year adjustment is not overly concerning as it indicates a stable supply-demand relationship [2] - Positive signals include a month-on-month increase in new home transactions in September and a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices across various cities [2][4] Sales and Transactions - In September, new home sales area reached 8,531 million square meters, and sales revenue was 8,025 billion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 49% and 43% respectively [4] - The cumulative sales area for the first three quarters was 65,835 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [3] Financing and Inventory - In September, personal mortgage loans amounted to 1,027 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the decline has narrowed [6] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 2.92 million square meters in September, continuing a seven-month downward trend, indicating easing inventory pressure [6] Price Trends - In September, eight cities saw a year-on-year increase in new home prices, the highest number this year, with cities like Nanning and Yichang experiencing price increases [8] - The year-on-year decline in housing prices is narrowing, with first-tier cities seeing a reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] Construction and Investment - New construction area in the first three quarters was 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, but September saw a smaller year-on-year decline of 14.4% [11] - The total real estate development investment for the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down 13.9%, with September's investment at 7,397 billion yuan, a decline of 21.3% [17] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize by the fourth quarter of 2024, with pent-up housing demand being released and inventory pressures becoming more pronounced [2][20] - The current investment scale in real estate development has significant room for downward adjustment, as the sales-to-investment ratio remains below 1.05 since 2022 [17][20]

华泰证券指出，供需结合来看，房地产行业中长期"止跌回稳"的基础正在构建，但要全面达成仍需要时 间。展望下半年，我们认为政策发力方向可能包括：1、稳定房价预期是第一步；2、更有效地激活购房 需求；3、优化收储发力去库存；4、关注城市更新资金来源。我们更看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市 复苏节奏，继续推荐具备"好信用、好城市、好产品"逻辑的"三好"地产开发商，分红与业绩稳健的头部 物管公司，以及受益于香港资产重估逻辑的香港本地地产股。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that from January to May 2025, the national new residential property sales area was 35,315 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a sales value of 34,091 billion yuan, down 3.8%. The decline in sales has expanded compared to the previous month, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [5] - The report indicates that the average transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 173.64 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%. However, the average transaction area for first-tier cities showed a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, while second-tier cities experienced a decline of 15% [6][14] - The second-hand housing market saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.4% in transaction area, with 20 cities reporting a transaction area of 228.53 million square meters last week [7][24] - The land market showed that 100 major cities had 51 new residential land supplies and 43 transactions last week, with an average floor price of 6,409 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 5.35% [29] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities was 173.64 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%. The average transaction area for first-tier cities was 55.99 million square meters, up 9.3% year-on-year [6][14] - The second-hand housing market in 20 cities reported a transaction area of 228.53 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.4% [7][24] - The land market saw 51 new residential land supplies and 43 transactions, with an average floor price of 6,409 yuan per square meter [29] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index fell by 1.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.25%. The report notes that the real estate index lagged behind the CSI 300 by 1.51 percentage points [32] - The Hong Kong property service and management index rose by 3.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, which increased by 0.89% [32]