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可控核聚变:0-1产业落地可期
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-28 08:59
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the controlled nuclear fusion industry, suggesting that companies with leading technologies and core component supply capabilities are likely to benefit first as fusion devices are deployed [3]. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as a clean, safe, and sustainable ultimate energy source, with significant potential for large-scale commercialization in the future [4][8]. - The report highlights the importance of the Lawson criterion and the Q factor in achieving sustainable fusion reactions, emphasizing that meeting these conditions is crucial for commercialization [17][18]. - The global landscape for fusion energy is rapidly evolving, with multiple countries, including the US, UK, Germany, and Russia, actively pursuing fusion power projects expected to come online in the 2030s [34][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Development Window for Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The report notes that the domestic and international fusion energy sector is entering a critical development phase, with significant projects underway [5][34]. - Key projects include the Hefei BEST project in China, which aims to be the world's first to conduct steady-state deuterium-tritium combustion by 2027 [52]. 2. What is Controlled Nuclear Fusion? - Controlled nuclear fusion is characterized by high energy release efficiency, safety, abundant fuel sources, and minimal environmental pollution [4][8]. - The primary fuels for fusion are deuterium and tritium, with deuterium being readily available from water and tritium produced through lithium reactions [8][11]. 3. Technical Pathways for Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Magnetic confinement is identified as the most effective method for achieving fusion energy, with the Tokamak design being the most widely researched and developed [18][19]. - The report discusses advancements in high-temperature superconductors and AI technology that enhance plasma control and reduce the size and cost of fusion devices [26][27]. 4. Progress in Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The report outlines significant international efforts, including the ITER project, which aims to demonstrate the feasibility of fusion energy by achieving a Q factor greater than 10 [38][43]. - Various countries are ramping up investments in fusion energy, with the US planning to build the world's first fusion power plant by 2028 [34][35]. 5. Beneficiary Companies - The report identifies several companies poised to benefit from the growth of the fusion energy sector, including those involved in magnet systems, high-temperature superconductors, vacuum chambers, and other supporting technologies [3].
核聚变:人类终极能源的钥匙
HTSC· 2025-05-21 12:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment and specialized equipment sectors [5]. Core Insights - The global nuclear fusion industry is accelerating, with significant advancements expected in the coming years, particularly with the BEST project set to demonstrate fusion energy generation [17][21]. - Over 70% of surveyed fusion companies believe that commercial applications of fusion energy can be achieved between 2031 and 2040, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][25]. - The Tokamak technology is considered the most mature among various fusion technology paths and is expected to lead the commercialization of fusion energy [18][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The nuclear fusion industry is experiencing robust growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements. Countries like the US, China, Europe, and Japan have established detailed strategic plans for fusion development [17][21]. - The BEST project in China is expected to be completed by 2027 and will be the first to demonstrate fusion energy generation, marking a significant milestone for China's fusion energy development [29][30]. Market Potential - The market for Tokamak devices is projected to exceed 90 billion yuan, with high-value components such as magnetic coils, first wall components, and vacuum parts being key beneficiaries [19][4]. - As of April 2025, there are 80 Tokamak devices globally, with 57 operational and 23 under construction, indicating a growing demand for fusion experimental reactors [19][4]. Technological Advancements - The Tokamak device operates by creating a closed helical magnetic field to confine high-temperature plasma, which is essential for achieving fusion reactions. The EAST device in China has already achieved a plasma confinement time of 403 seconds [18][34]. - The report highlights that advancements in high-temperature superconductors will enhance plasma stability and contribute to the commercialization of Tokamak technology [18][34]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the nuclear fusion sector is on a path to commercialization, with ongoing projects and technological innovations paving the way for practical applications of fusion energy [20][21]. - The anticipated completion of the ITER project by 2025 will further solidify the foundation for future fusion energy developments [21][22].