全球可控核聚变研发呈现中美竞速格局，美国通过科技巨头资本开支和 政策引导，中国则通过国家队集中力量推动，均显示出对该领域的高度 重视。 中国可控核聚变被列入"十五五"规划建议，预示国家政策将持续支持 该领域发展，为相关资本开支提供保障，并可能催化市场热情。 当前中国核聚变项目投入约 1,500 亿元，预计未来几年将持续增加， 2025 年市场主线围绕资本开支落地展开，合肥 BEST 项目招标是重要 观察点。 核聚变开发分为实验堆、工程堆、示范堆和商业化阶段，目前处于实验 堆阶段，单体工程堆投资预计达千亿级别，未来资本开支潜力巨大。 2026 年合肥 BEST 项目招标体量显著提升，11 月单月招标金额接近 40 亿元，表明行业资金逐步落地，为未来发展奠定基础。 托卡马克装置中磁体环节价值量占比高（30%-40%），低温超导（西 部超导）和高温超导（永鼎股份、精达股份、上海超导）路线值得关注， 磁体加工环节的联创光电也是重要标的。 具有核心资源优势或壁垒的链主企业，如合肥链上的合锻智能、南昌链 上的联创光电、成都链上的国光，因其在产业链中的关键位置而具备较 高的发展潜力。 核聚变核心逻辑再梳理 20260108 ...

华西中小盘 （一）核聚变释放能量高，氘氚为当前主流反应 可控聚变能源的效率极高，燃料需求量和物理废物量也更少：1克氘氚聚变燃料释放的能量相当于11.2吨标准煤，是1克铀-235裂变所释放能量约4倍。可 控核聚变的氘氚反应因三大核心优势：1）燃料获取可行，储备丰富：氘在自然界中分布极其丰富，来自于普通的水；②技术可行性最高：过去半个多世 纪的聚变研究，绝大部分都集中在氘-氚反应上；③能量增益较高：氘-氚反应一次释放17.6MeV的能量，是目前实现能量净增益（Q>1）乃至商业化发电 （Q>10）较为现实的途径等优势，且外加最低的点火温度、燃料获取相对容易以及最成熟的研发基础，目前仍是被理论和实验广泛验证、并具备工程可 行性的主流聚变路径。磁约束被认为是目前最有希望实现大规模受控核聚变反应的一种约束方式；根据采用的超导材料和工作温区，主要分为低温超导和 高温超导两条技术路线；高温超导技术是未来实现装置小型化、低成本化和商业化的关键。 （二）全球算力拉动电力需求，可控核聚变进展加速，商业化征途可期 当前全球数据中心用电量约为415 TWh，过去5年保持约12%的年增速；到2030年，在基准情形下将翻倍至约945 TW ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the commercialization process of controllable nuclear fusion, highlighting the diverse technological routes and the increasing industrial catalysis [5]. - It identifies Tokamak and Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) as reliable paths for achieving nuclear fusion, with Tokamak being the mainstream route and FRC gaining attention for its potential faster commercialization [13][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion is defined as the process where lighter atomic nuclei combine under extreme temperature and pressure to form heavier nuclei, releasing significant energy, similar to the energy generation mechanism of the sun [13][14]. - Compared to nuclear fission, nuclear fusion offers advantages such as high energy density, safety, cleanliness, and abundant raw materials [18][19]. 2. Tokamak: A Mainstream Route - The Tokamak, developed in the 1950s, utilizes a toroidal vacuum chamber and magnetic fields to confine high-temperature plasma necessary for fusion reactions [49]. - The report outlines the complexity of Tokamak components, emphasizing that the magnet system is crucial for maintaining plasma stability and achieving fusion conditions [52][59]. 3. FRC: A Simpler and Cost-Effective Approach - FRC is noted for its simpler structure and lower investment costs compared to Tokamak, with a potentially faster commercialization timeline [5][18]. 4. Global Fusion Projects - As of December 2025, there are 179 controllable nuclear fusion devices globally, with 82 being Tokamak devices, indicating a robust international effort towards fusion energy [40]. - The report highlights various national projects, including China's BEST and CFEDR, which aim to achieve significant milestones in fusion energy by 2027 and 2030, respectively [43][50]. 5. Key Companies in the Industry - The report suggests focusing on companies with capabilities in critical components for nuclear fusion, such as 合锻智能 (Hefei Intelligent), 联创光电 (Lianchuang Optoelectronics), and 国光电气 (Guoguang Electric), among others [5][44].

"聚变之路"既是一条科学探索之路，也是一条人类追求清洁能源的共同奋斗之路 2026年1月，《中华人民共和国原子能法》将施行，明确国家鼓励和支持受控热核聚变的科学研究和技 术开发，规定相关安全监督管理措施，既防范风险，又激发活力，以制度之力为聚变能研究创新划定边 界、提供保障。 前不久，中国科学院"燃烧等离子体"国际科学计划项目正式启动，面向全球开放多个聚变能实验装置及 平台，旨在聚力点燃"人造太阳"，携手探索用聚变能照亮人类清洁能源的未来。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代 移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。"当今世界，清洁能源角色正逐渐从补充转向主力，从风光水储到氢 能、核能，清洁能源版图不断扩展，聚变能正是其中最具革命性的一块。与裂变能相比，聚变能能量密 度大、原料资源丰富、放射性污染低、固有安全好；与其他清洁能源相比，聚变能几乎不受地理与气候 限制，能实现连续运行、稳定输出，是未来清洁能源的重要发展方向之一。 科技进步是世界性、时代性课题，唯有开放合作才是正道。聚变能研究投入大、周期长，任何国家都无 法独立完成。"聚变之路"既是一条科学探索之路，也 ...

Group 1 - Controlled nuclear fusion is considered a future ideal energy source due to its high energy output compared to nuclear fission, with 1 gram of deuterium-tritium fusion fuel releasing energy equivalent to 11.2 tons of standard coal, which is about four times that of 1 gram of uranium-235 fission [12][13] - The deuterium-tritium reaction is the mainstream application in nuclear fusion, offering advantages such as feasible fuel acquisition, high technical feasibility, and significant energy gain, making it the most viable path for achieving net energy gain and commercial power generation [18][19] - Magnetic confinement is recognized as the most promising method for achieving large-scale controlled nuclear fusion, with superconducting technology being key to future device miniaturization and cost reduction [1][25] Group 2 - The global demand for electricity is increasing, driven by data centers, which currently consume about 415 TWh and are expected to double to approximately 945 TWh by 2030, making controlled nuclear fusion an ideal energy solution [2][3] - The progress in controlled nuclear fusion has shifted from "can it ignite" to "can it operate long-term, stably, and economically," with significant advancements in devices like EAST and ITER laying the groundwork for commercial viability [2][3] - Major domestic projects in China, such as EAST and BEST, are expected to see capital expenditures exceeding 92 billion yuan over the next five years, benefiting local companies involved in the supply chain [4][6] Group 3 - The manufacturing value of midstream equipment in the tokamak devices is significant, with over 50% of the value chain attributed to midstream equipment, including key components like vacuum chambers and superconducting magnets [3][6] - Domestic companies are expected to benefit from the nuclear fusion sector, with investments in upstream materials and midstream equipment manufacturing, including companies like Western Superconducting, Antai Technology, and China Nuclear Power [6][4] - The capital expenditure in China's controlled nuclear fusion sector is projected to maintain around 92 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030, with annual investments exceeding 10 billion yuan [6][4]

招标风再起，核聚变再到配置节点 20251210 摘要 2025 年核聚变招标数量预计达 160-180 亿元，标志着行业关键拐点， 多地项目启动预示国家投入巨大，2026 年招标体量预计继续上升，行 业热度将更高。 选股策略上，建议关注龙头及平台型公司，其产品或服务可广泛应用于 反应堆项目，价值量大且市场份额高，如永鼎和杭氧，具备长期增长潜 力。同时，可关注与特定项目关联密切的链主企业。 2026 年是实验堆向工程堆过渡的关键年，CFBDR 项目预计启动，规模 达 800-1,000 亿元，将大幅提升市场估值，推动核聚变商业化进程，头 部公司如永鼎与杭氧的配置价值凸显。 核聚变反应堆通过强磁场约束氘氚原子，实现高温高压反应。托卡马克 装置中，磁体价值量占比最高，低温装置磁体加量达 30%，高温装置达 35%-40%，高加量、高壁垒方案是必然选择。 Q 值是衡量核聚变反应堆性能的关键指标，Q 值大于 30 被认为是商业 化条件。目前尚未开始氘氚反应，2026 年起实验启动后，将有助于观 察更有意义的指标，推动行业发展。 Q&A 核聚变作为未来发电的终极能源，其优势和难点分别是什么？ 核聚变的优势在于其高能量密 ...

市场期待在以托卡马克装置为主基础上探索更多元路线。 也因此，在此次对接活动中，除了整机项目外，离子源部件、抗辐照核心材料、加热系统、密封阀门等 产业链配套企业同样获得资本关注。刘佳表示，从核心装置到配套部件，国内核聚变产业链已形成明确 的投资机会。 当前，资本对多元技术路线的投入持续提速。《2025年全球聚变产业报告》数据显示，过去五年，全球 核聚变领域总投资额从2021年的19亿美元增至如今的97亿美元，相关企业数量达53家，较2023年增长 143%。 国内市场同样动作频繁。今年7月，中核集团牵头成立的中国聚变获得昆仑资本、浙能电力等股东共同 增资近115亿元；8月民营公司诺瓦聚变完成5亿元天使轮融资；10月末，Z箍缩聚变商业公司安东聚变 宣布完成联想之星、水木清华校友基金等投资的近亿元首轮融资。 核聚变科技成果转化对接活动近日在京举办，中金公司、顺为资本等多家投资机构，以及星能玄光、瀚 海智能、合肥星核聚变能源等行业17家产业链公司悉数到场。 庞大的产业链规模是资本涌入的重要原因。仅11月中上旬，中国科学院等离子体物理研究所公开的招标 项目累计招标金额就接近14亿元，覆盖内燃料循环平台、氚安全防护平台、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the nuclear fusion sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - China's launch of the international scientific program in the fusion field is expected to enhance the country's capabilities and foster global collaboration in overcoming challenges in fusion combustion physics [8][9]. - The ITER project has reached a significant milestone with the completion of the installation of the fifth vacuum chamber sector, which is crucial for the project's timeline and future stability [9]. - The development of ship-based fusion reactors by Maritime Fusion could revolutionize the shipping energy landscape, aligning with global decarbonization goals [15]. - An Tai Technology has secured significant contracts, showcasing its strong technical capabilities in the fusion component sector [16]. Summary by Sections Industry Developments - The international scientific program for fusion initiated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences aims to consolidate global scientific efforts and enhance China's leadership in superconducting tokamak research [8]. - The ITER project is on track to complete all nine sectors by 2027, with recent successful installations marking key progress [9]. Technological Advancements - Maritime Fusion's initiative to develop a ship-mounted fusion reactor represents a potential shift in maritime energy sources, targeting zero emissions and significant market disruption [15]. Company-Level Insights - An Tai Technology has won contracts worth 70 million yuan for key fusion components, indicating its competitive edge in the market [16]. - The report highlights several companies for investment, including Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Hezhu Intelligent, while suggesting attention to Guoguang Electric [3][35]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in bidding activities for fusion projects, with November alone seeing a total bidding amount of 2.58 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [25][30]. - The overall market for controlled nuclear fusion is projected to reach 146.5 billion yuan in the next 3-5 years, marking a peak in project tenders [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the critical issue of energy scarcity and highlights controlled nuclear fusion, referred to as "artificial sun," as a potential ultimate solution to humanity's energy challenges [2][4][22] - It emphasizes China's advancements in controlled nuclear fusion technology and its position in the global competition [17][20][24] Energy Scarcity and Its Implications - Energy scarcity significantly influences human society, leading to competition, trade, and conflicts, particularly evident in regions like the Middle East due to oil reserves [4][5] - The reliance on fossil fuels and the limitations of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power necessitate a more sustainable solution [5][7] Controlled Nuclear Fusion as a Solution - Controlled nuclear fusion aims to replicate the sun's energy production process, utilizing isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium and tritium) as fuel [9] - The challenges include achieving the necessary high temperatures (around 100 million degrees) and confining the plasma using magnetic fields [11][13] China's Leadership in Fusion Technology - China has made significant strides in controlled nuclear fusion, with a Tokamak device achieving over 1000 seconds of stable operation and plans for a fusion power plant by 2027 [17][20] - The country's advancements are attributed to long-term investment and breakthroughs in materials science, superconducting magnets, and precision manufacturing [19][20] Future Implications of Fusion Energy - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is projected around 2050, potentially leading to an era of unlimited energy and transforming global dynamics [20][22] - The shift from resource competition to value creation could foster growth in various sectors, including arts, technology, and culture [22][24]

Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The global nuclear fusion competition is intensifying, with the market expected to exceed $40 trillion by 2050 according to the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - Helion Energy has received a Conditional Use Permit from Chelan County, Washington, allowing for the construction of its "Orion" fusion power plant [2] - Various technological pathways in nuclear fusion are being explored, including Tokamak devices, inertial confinement, and new modular reactor designs that promise lower costs and shorter construction times [2] - Hybrid reactors that combine fission and fusion advantages are emerging as a cleaner alternative to traditional fission reactors [2] - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as power sources, capacitors, and switches due to the increasing importance of power generation in fusion technology [2] Group 2: Satellite Internet Industry - The successful launch of the Gaofen-14 02 satellite by China's Long March 3B rocket marks a significant achievement in the country's space endeavors [3] - The number of rocket launches in China is projected to increase from 39 in 2018 to 68 by 2024, indicating rapid growth in the aerospace sector [3] - Major commercial rocket companies, including Xinghe Power and Tianbing Technology, are initiating listing processes, reflecting the growing interest and investment in the satellite internet industry [3] - Technological innovations in manufacturing and the development of reusable rocket technology are expected to significantly reduce launch costs and enhance capacity in the satellite internet sector [3]