发布时间：2025-11-04 大盘指数 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 3000 4000 5000 上证指数 深证成指 2000 3000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 10 月主要股指表现分化回落，风格出现切换。截至 10 月 31 日， 上证指数上涨 1.85%，深证成指下跌 1.10%，创业板指下跌 1.56%，沪 深 300 上涨 0.00%，上证 50 上涨 0.76%，科创 50 下跌 5.53%。按风格 来看，稳定风格上涨 3.40%，金融风格上涨 2.44%，消费风格下跌 0.83%，周期风格上涨 1.29%，成长风格下跌 1.56%。大盘指数下跌 0.06%，中盘指数下跌 1.48%，小盘指数下跌 0.72%，茅指数下跌 2.14%， 宁组合下跌 4.94%。 节奏上，市场波动加大，内外政治因素是源头。A 股在 10 月上半 月因前期涨幅较大而出现技术性的回调，后在 10 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and its implications for liquidity in the A-share market, suggesting that this migration is a response to a loose liquidity environment leading to lower interest rates and a search for higher-yielding assets [3][4][14] - It introduces a new dual liquidity framework that incorporates both household and corporate capital behaviors, indicating that corporate capital is more likely to trigger a bull market than household savings [4][35] - The report identifies three phases of a liquidity-driven bull market: ignition phase led by corporate capital, acceleration phase driven by household savings migration, and a bubble phase where both types of capital create positive feedback [37][50] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current market is still in the tail end of the first phase dominated by corporate capital, with large-scale household deposit migration to the stock market yet to occur [7][19] - It emphasizes that the lack of significant deposit migration suggests limited upward potential for the A-share index, urging a focus on structural opportunities instead [7][20] - The report notes that the cooling real estate market has influenced household asset allocation behavior, leading to a higher savings tendency and a reluctance to migrate deposits into the stock market [5][22] Group 3 - The report analyzes how the transfer of pricing power among funds affects market preferences, indicating that institutional investors tend to favor large-cap stocks while retail investors are more active in small-cap stocks [38][44] - It discusses the lifecycle of market trends, identifying signals for potential market corrections, such as increased shareholding reductions by major shareholders [51][56] - The report concludes that significant changes in corporate shareholder behavior can serve as leading indicators for market adjustments, particularly in the context of liquidity conditions [53][58]