发布时间：2025-08-26 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《市场脉搏（1）：基于隐马尔科夫链与 动 态 调 制 的 量 化 择 时 方 案 》 - 2025.08.20 策略观点 美联储降息预期助力 A 股更上层楼 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股继续强势上行，再创阶段新高。本周主要股指全数上涨， 其中科创 50 在周五大涨 8.59%，整周上涨 13.31%大幅领先，其余主 要指数之间的涨幅差异不大。风格方面，本周风格层面大幅反转，上 周大幅下跌的周期风格强势反弹，上周抗跌的消费风格本周涨幅落 后。市值风格方面，本周大盘风格优于中小盘，和上周表现相反。本 周代表核心资产和成长龙头的茅指数和宁组合亦有较大幅度上涨，宁 组合整周上涨 4.51%，茅指数上涨 3.71% ...

DeepSeek 助力国产算力价值重估 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 一、DeepSeek-V3.1：架构焕新智能体，FP8 赋能算力 生态 DeepSeek-V3.1 实现多维度突破，采用创新混合推理 架构，支持"思考"与"非思考"模式，结合混合专 家架构与 UE8M0 FP8 精度，优化效率并降低部署成 本。其智能体能力突出，编程与搜索能力卓越，上下 文窗口扩展至 128K。生态建设上，模型开源且 API 价 格下调、优化功能。该模型与 UE8M0 FP8 组合适配国 产芯片，UE8M0 FP8 动态范围大，提升稳定性与效 率，适配华为昇腾等芯片，实现"低卡高能"部署， 带动全产业链发展。在政策推动下，其与昇腾组合切 入关键领域，打破垄断，根据中研网预测，2025 年中 国 AI 算力市场达 1200 亿元，我们预计 UE8M0 FP8 技 术新增 240 亿元有效算力供给。 ►二、供应链风险与自主化机遇：国产芯片及服务器有 望快速发展 8 月 22 日，英伟达要求部分供应商暂停生产 H2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of domestic computing power and self-control in light of recent geopolitical factors and security risks associated with foreign technology, particularly following the discussions with Nvidia regarding the H20 backdoor security risk [1] - The electronic sector is expected to experience a "valuation expansion" trend due to the convergence of macro policy cycles, industry inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which can see daily fluctuations of up to 20%, focusing on semiconductor and electronic industry companies listed on the Science and Technology Board [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Chip Index includes leading domestic chip companies, with the largest weighted stock, "Han Wang," accounting for over 12% of the index [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF Initiated Link A (024853) and Link C (024854) for exposure to the sector [1]

国防军工、芯片、通信设备、工业金属等板块涨幅居前。 受此影响，昨日欧洲军工股普遍收涨，空客涨2.88%，Kongsberg Gruppen涨2.11%，达索系统则跌 2.43%。德国上市的WisdomTree Europe Defence UCITS ETF（EUDF.GY）收涨1.41%。 芯片行业景气度持续攀升 芯片概念股早间集体走强，板块指数创历史新高。光库科技(300620)以20%涨停价开盘，连续第2日封 板，股价创历史新高，中船特气高开仅约3分钟也20cm涨停，罗博特科、凯美特气、飞龙股份等近20股 亦涨停或涨超10%。 盘面上，国防军工、芯片、通信设备、工业金属等板块涨幅居前，休闲食品、养殖业、服装家纺、酿酒 等板块跌幅居前。 地面兵装板块2个月急拉1倍 国防军工股早间再次强势上攻，地面兵装方向领涨，板块指数放量飙升逾6%，再创历史新高，近2个月 来，该指数急速上涨超1倍。龙头股长城军工再封涨停，连续13个交易日上涨，其中7日涨停，2个月大 涨逾425%；内蒙一机、北方长龙等涨幅居前。 军民概念、军工信息化、军民融合、航天装备等板块跟随上扬，烽火电子、中电鑫龙、淳中科技、航天 科技等纷纷强势涨停 ...

国信证券指出，半导体行业维持高景气，台积电将年收入增速预期由25%上调至30%，佐证行业高 景气延续。在北美算力强势上涨的带动下，交换机及服务器产业链成为主要情绪拉动点。2Q25全球硅 晶圆出货面积同环比增长，创3Q23以来的新高，显示存储以外的部分领域开始复苏，AI数据中心芯片 的硅晶圆需求依然强劲。利基存储价格逐步回暖，华邦电NOR Flash与SLC NAND需求回温，大容量 NOR Flash现货产品价格自5月后上扬，预期三季度持续回暖。海外科技大厂持续加大资本开支，上调 资本开支计划，表明AI算力投入依旧火热。网信办约谈英伟达H20后门安全风险，凸显国产算力自主可 控重要性，地缘政治等因素加速推动国产算力芯片从设计到制造的全面自主可控。当前电子板块在"宏 观政策周期、产业库存周期、AI创新周期"共振下，有望迎来"估值扩张"行情。 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.c ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend on August 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording a seven-day winning streak and all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.24% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Key Sectors - The banking and technology sectors were identified as key drivers influencing market performance, with significant contributions from large financial institutions [2][10] - The semiconductor sector, particularly represented by stocks like Cambrian (寒武纪), saw substantial gains, with Cambrian's stock price hitting a historical high and a trading volume of 15.126 billion yuan, leading the market [4][13] Individual Stock Performance - Agricultural Bank of China (601288) achieved a historical high for six consecutive trading days, reflecting strong performance in the banking sector [8] - Notable technology stocks such as Cambrian, New Yisheng, and Industrial Fulian also reached new highs, with Cambrian's year-to-date increase at 29.01% [6][12] - The financial performance of brokerage firms has improved significantly, with some firms like Huashan Securities and Guoyuan Securities reporting net profit growth exceeding 40% for the first half of 2025 [12] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with TSMC raising its revenue growth forecast from 25% to 30%, indicating sustained high demand [15] - The AI chip sector is expected to see continued growth, driven by strong demand and the need for domestic production capabilities due to geopolitical factors [16] - The overall electronic sector is anticipated to benefit from a confluence of macroeconomic policies, inventory cycles, and AI innovation trends, potentially leading to valuation expansion [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the strong growth in North American computing power, which has positively impacted the related supply chain, particularly in the switch and server industries benefiting from the ASIC trend [1] - TSMC has raised its annual revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% to around 30%, indicating sustained high demand in the industry [1] - Global silicon wafer shipments in 2Q25 reached 3.327 billion square inches, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%, the highest since 3Q23 [1][2] Group 2 - Major overseas tech companies are increasing capital expenditures, with Microsoft reporting $24.2 billion in capital spending for FY4Q25, a 27% year-on-year increase, and expected to exceed $30 billion in FY1Q26 [3] - Meta has raised its capital expenditure forecast for the year from $64-72 billion to $66-72 billion, while Google has increased its plan from approximately $75 billion to about $85 billion [3] - The recovery of niche storage prices is observed, with companies like Winbond seeing demand for NOR Flash and SLC NAND products increase, leading to a price rise for 128Mb NOR Flash since May [4] Group 3 - The importance of domestic computing power chips is emphasized due to geopolitical factors and network security concerns, with a focus on companies like Cambricon and Aojie Technology [5] - The State Council has approved a plan to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications, indicating a strong policy signal for the AI sector [7] - The global TV panel shipment volume decreased by 7% year-on-year in 2Q25, but panel manufacturers are expected to increase utilization rates in August and September as inventory levels normalize [8]

Macro and Strategy - The macro commentary highlights the strong performance of high-tech manufacturing, with the National Securities weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index showing strength, recording 0.4 for index A and 50.8 for index B as of July 26, 2025 [6][7] - The AI sector is expected to see significant growth, with the World Artificial Intelligence Conference announcing procurement demands exceeding 16.2 billion yuan, indicating robust investment in smart driving and robotics [8][13] Industry and Company - The semiconductor industry remains in a high prosperity phase, with a focus on analog and storage opportunities. The semiconductor sector saw a slight decline of 1.43% while electronic components rose by 7.77% [8][9] - The global silicon wafer shipment area reached 3.327 billion square inches in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor market [9] - ServiceNow's Q2 2025 subscription revenue grew by 21.5% to $3.113 billion, exceeding guidance, with a strong performance in AI-driven products and a high renewal rate of 98% [20][21] - The automotive industry is projected to see a retail market of approximately 1.85 million units in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement [17][18] - The quarterly revenue of Sunlord Electronics reached a record high of 3.224 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, driven by strong performance in automotive and computing sectors [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the semiconductor sector, including SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and Aoyuan Technology, as well as those in the automotive supply chain like Leap Motor and Geely [15][20] - In the AI infrastructure space, companies such as Industrial Fulian and Longxin Technology are highlighted for their growth prospects due to increasing demand for AI capabilities [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronics industry [1][5][10]. Core Views - The semiconductor sector remains in a high-growth phase, with strong demand for AI-related products and a moderate recovery in non-AI demand, leading to an upward revision of revenue growth expectations from approximately 25% to 30% for TSMC [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of the AI infrastructure investment cycle, with major tech companies increasing capital expenditures significantly, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI industry [3][7]. - There is an optimistic outlook for niche storage products, with prices expected to recover throughout the year, driven by increased demand for NOR Flash and SLC NAND products [4][8]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a resurgence, with global silicon wafer shipments reaching 3.327 billion square inches in 2Q25, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9% [2]. - Companies such as SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and Northern Huachuang are recommended for investment due to their strong positioning in the production chain [2]. AI Infrastructure - Major tech firms like Microsoft and Google are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Microsoft projecting a 50% year-on-year increase in FY1Q26 [3]. - The report suggests that the AI infrastructure remains a high-growth investment theme, with companies like Industrial Fulian and Longxin Technology highlighted for their potential [3][7]. Storage Market - The report notes a recovery in niche storage prices, particularly for NOR Flash and SLC NAND products, with expectations of continued price increases into Q3 [4]. - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng are recommended for their involvement in the recovering storage market [4]. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is expected to benefit from the AI application cycle, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics identified as potential investment opportunities due to their low current valuations and AI penetration logic [7][9]. Key Investment Portfolio - The report lists key companies for investment across various segments, including: - Semiconductor: SMIC, Aojie Technology, and others [10]. - Consumer Electronics: Industrial Fulian, Lens Technology, and others [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronics industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [1][10]. Core Views - The semiconductor sector continues to show high prosperity, with a positive outlook on analog and storage ICs due to favorable left-side layout opportunities. TSMC has raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 from approximately 25% to 30%, supporting the continuation of high industry prosperity [1][2]. - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures by major overseas tech companies, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure. Companies like Microsoft and Google are significantly increasing their capital spending, which is expected to drive growth in the AI industry chain [3][7]. - There is a recovery trend in niche storage prices, with expectations for overall storage price recovery throughout the year. Companies like Winbond are seeing demand for NOR Flash and SLC NAND products increase, which is anticipated to continue into the third quarter [4][9]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains robust, with TSMC's revenue growth forecast adjustment reflecting strong AI demand. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and expansion potential, such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [1][2][10]. AI Infrastructure - Major tech firms are ramping up capital expenditures, with Microsoft planning to exceed $30 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in AI applications and infrastructure [3][7]. Storage Market - The report notes a recovery in niche storage prices, particularly for NOR Flash and SLC NAND products, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [4][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with strong growth potential in the electronics sector, including industrial leaders like Industrial Fulian, Xiaomi, and Lixun Precision, as well as semiconductor firms like SMIC and Jingfang Technology [1][9][10].