托底政策

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和讯投顾陈晓俊:节前大盘下跌空间有限!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 10:44
节前大盘下跌空间有限快的话,本周就会出现大阳线慢的话,十一之后会再次突破,那具体原因是什 么?或是有什么样的利好?和讯投顾陈晓俊分析,首先大盘自去年924行情启动以来,当时的政策就是 在美联储降息之后的几天出现的。那今年的918降息之后,根据机构的预计,将会推出5,000亿到1万亿 规模的托底政策,时间就在9月底到10月份,那上半年数据确实有点拉胯,下半年托底,这个逻辑是说 得过去的,所以市场下行空间基本被堵死。 其次从技术上来看,我们维持之前的观点不变,那就是从今年的624行情单边上涨两个月,然后横盘一 个月,就在9月份到后期利好加持会不断的出现突破,啊那这不今天的收盘之后呢还有重要的会议要召 开,啊今天全天成交2.1万亿,啊较上一个交易日缩量,那是不是预示着为后期的上涨做准备呢? ...
热点思考 | 海外如何“反内卷”?——“反内卷”系列之五(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-22 09:30
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from overseas experiences in addressing industrial disorder and overcapacity, suggesting a combination of policies that encourage industry mergers and restructuring, improve industry standards, enhance market clearing, and implement corresponding support policies [8][42]. Group 2 - Japan's experience highlights the formation of cross-shareholding and mergers to create an industrial network, which helps avoid excessive competition and promotes economies of scale. The revision of the Antimonopoly Act in 1953 and the introduction of the "New Industrial Structure Theory" in 1963 were pivotal in encouraging mergers [2][49]. - The shareholding of financial institutions in Japanese companies increased from 30% in 1960 to 45% in 1990, and the average cross-shareholding ratio among Japan's six major groups rose from 12% in 1962 to 18% in 1998 [2][49]. - The establishment of "Keiretsu" groups in Japan, which consist of horizontal and vertical alliances, has stabilized supply chains and reduced excessive competition, thereby facilitating industrial upgrades [3][50]. Group 3 - The UK and US experiences focus on market-driven clearing while ensuring social safety nets. The UK government ceased financial subsidies and gradually exited the coal price protection system in the mid-1980s, leading to the closure of about one-third of coal mines between 1985 and 1986 [4][51]. - The US steel industry faced similar challenges, with the government eliminating tax incentives in 1986 and promoting mergers in the 1990s, resulting in a reduction of approximately 52.8 million tons of crude steel capacity from 1998 to 2003 [4][25]. - Both countries implemented support measures for displaced workers, such as the UK's "Enterprise Allowance Scheme" and the US's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), which provided retirement benefits to around 700,000 retirees by 2005 [5][32]. Group 4 - Germany's experience illustrates the establishment of high industry standards to foster differentiated competition. The Beer Purity Law of 1516 set strict quality standards for beer production, which helped protect local industries and enhance product quality [6][37]. - The German government encourages regional styles and has implemented detailed certification mechanisms to ensure product authenticity and quality, promoting a diverse competitive landscape [6][39]. - By aligning with international beer classification standards, Germany has guided the market towards high-quality, non-price competition, facilitating innovation and cultural positioning among breweries [6][54].