哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊美联储的最新大动作！ 美联储直接扔出王炸——2025年12月1日起正式停缩表，全球市场瞬间坐过山车，有人狂喜有人慌，唯 独人民币资产悄悄逆风翻盘，这波操作到底藏着啥玄机？ 还有个关键误区得说清楚：停缩表≠量化宽松（QE）！别一听"不缩表"就以为要放水，美联储后续大概 率是搞"技术性扩表"，比如把到期的MBS资金拿去买短期美国国债，缩短资产久期。 纽约联储早就放话了，要是银行准备金降到2.7万亿美元的临界点，可能会启动结构性扩表，但这和QE 完全是两码事。 人民币崛起 市场秒变过山车 先看最直观的市场反应：美元汇率在99-100区间晃悠着走弱，北向资金跟开了挂似的往A股冲，港股里 的高股息资产直接成了香饽饽。 人民币更是buff叠满，中美利差越变越好看，加上出口商结汇旺季要来了，中长期升值的苗头越来越明 显，这架势谁看了不说一句"牛"？ 但你以为美联储是好心放水？醒醒！这波停缩表根本不是主动宽松，纯属美国经济扛不住了的"被动自 救"。 宫天天逼着美联储降息，美联储的政策独立性都快没了，现在停缩表就是"不刹车不行"，再硬撑下去， 搞不好就引发系统性风险。这和2019年那次主动调整完全 ...

一、停缩表：实在扛不住才松口 大家好，我是老陈瞰世界。 说白了，美联储这次喊停缩表，压根不是心甘情愿放水救市，纯粹是被市场和债务逼到墙角，没辙了才 松的口。 估计不少人听着 "准备金" 懵圈 —— 其实这玩意儿就是银行存放在央行的 "押金"，跟咱们家里留着应 急的现金一个意思，万一客户集中提款或者资金周转，全靠这笔钱撑着。 现在押金快见底了，银行放贷、互相拆借都得卡壳。 更吓人的是，银行之间的 "救命工具"（常备回购工具 SRF），11 月使用量直接飙到503.5 亿美元的历史 峰值，隔夜贷款利率（SOFR）一度冲到 4.22%，硬生生超过美联储 4% 的利率上限。 这就好比市面上的钱紧张到，银行之间借钱都得付 "高利贷"，普通企业想贷款扩大生产，老百姓想买 房买车贷点款，成本只会高得离谱。 再看美国那座压顶的债务大山：11 月 18 日国债总额突破38.2 万亿美元，一年就新增 2.2 万亿，光利息 支出就首次破 1.1 万亿美元，占财政收入快 20% 了。 巴菲特都忍不住预警，现在美国每收 10 块税，就有 2 块要拿去还利息，再过十年这个比例可能涨到 30%。 咱先掰扯最要命的流动性危机：银行的 "应急 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, primarily due to increasing liquidity pressure in the U.S. market and escalating fiscal burdens. This move may provide short-term relief for global dollar liquidity but could amplify volatility in emerging markets in the medium to long term [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - U.S. market liquidity is nearing a warning threshold, with bank reserves dropping to $2.93 trillion (approximately 9% of GDP), close to the "money shortage" threshold of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion observed in 2019. Overnight rates, such as SOFR, have exceeded the target range, and the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged to over $10 billion in a single day, indicating heightened financing pressures [3]. - Fiscal pressures are forcing a policy shift, as U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments approaching defense budget levels. Continued balance sheet reduction raises government financing costs and exacerbates debt risks, leading to repeated calls from the White House for the Fed to lower interest rates, challenging the Fed's policy independence [3]. - Economic data shows weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September 2025, indicating a cooling job market. Although inflation has decreased to 3%, it remains above the 2% target [3]. Group 2: Impact of Stopping Balance Sheet Reduction - In the short term, this decision is favorable as it improves liquidity, alleviates dollar financing costs, reduces repo rate volatility, and supports U.S. equity and bond markets. Emerging market capital is expected to flow back, leading to a weaker dollar (recently fluctuating between 99-100), with increased northbound capital inflows into A-shares and high-dividend assets in Hong Kong. The attractiveness of RMB assets is rising, supported by improved China-U.S. interest rate differentials and a peak season for exporters' currency conversion, enhancing the long-term appreciation expectations for the RMB [5]. - In the medium to long term, risks may arise, including increased volatility in emerging markets and potential local bubbles or debt risks due to cross-border capital "tidal effects," reminiscent of the turmoil in emerging markets following the end of balance sheet reduction in 2019. There are also inflationary concerns; if economic resilience exceeds expectations, inflation rebound could limit the Fed's capacity to lower interest rates [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Direction - Future policy may involve technical operations rather than quantitative easing (QE). The Fed may reinvest maturing MBS funds into short-term Treasury bonds to shorten asset duration. The New York Fed has indicated that if reserves fall to a critical point of $2.7 trillion, structural balance sheet expansion may be initiated, such as purchasing short-term Treasury bonds. However, QE is not expected to be implemented in the short term, as the current federal funds rate is between 3.75% and 4.0%, well above the zero lower bound, and conventional rate-cutting tools remain effective [7]. Group 4: Capital Market Considerations - There are opportunities for RMB asset allocation, particularly in high-dividend sectors of A-shares (banking, power, coal) with dividend yields reaching 3.8%, significantly higher than the U.S. stock market's 1.6%. The trend of foreign capital allocation is clear, supported by easing U.S. monetary policy and a narrowing decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. [9]. - Market volatility risks should be monitored, as U.S. tech stock valuations are at historical highs, with the NASDAQ's PE-TTM at 36.95 times, indicating ongoing short-term adjustment pressures. The lagging effects of Fed policy may impact corporate bonds, especially those with low ratings [9]. - It is important to note that the Fed's current policy shift is a passive adjustment under debt constraints rather than an active stimulus. Investors should focus on defensive strategies, increasing allocations to high-dividend assets, and pay attention to liquidity expectations adjustments in the upcoming December meeting. China's economy may benefit from improved external demand and capital inflows, but caution is warranted regarding cross-border volatility triggered by mixed signals from the Fed [9].