假期结束后，离岸人民币汇率继续走强，1美元兑离岸人民币升至6.8附近，近10个月累计上涨超过5600个基点，升值势头明显。 值得关注的是，本轮人民币走强期间，美元指数并未出现明显下跌，人民币呈现独立升值态势。美元指数主要反映美元对欧元、日元、英镑等主要货币的表 现，这一情况说明，本轮人民币升值并非由美元走弱带动，而是由境内市场自身因素推动。 首先最主要的买入力量，是国内的出口企业，这也是推动人民币升值最核心的原因。 我们都知道，中国是出口大国，很多企业做外贸生意，卖货物到国外，收回来的都是美元。 2025年中国货物贸易保持较高顺差，约1.2万亿美元，净出口对经济增长的贡献率达到32.7%，这意味着出口企业手里积累了大量的美元。 . . THE SIN THE THE THE 理 居民 院 院 arme ca H E France CAA EES uxt AER! INPL MAZREN 86 Hopag U SINDTRANS & Hoper ESALE WAS EE Hapen Lloyd SINCI OR Crists 《 Hapen Unyd CHAN MAN Fists can mas GSt & H ...

Group 1 - The economic policy direction in 2026 is shifting from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments in 2025 to a balance of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with macro policies expected to maintain necessary support to prevent a rapid decline in economic growth [1] - Significant fiscal investments are anticipated in major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stabilize investment, reversing the decline in infrastructure investment observed last year [1] - Local governments are expected to optimize expenditure structures and implement income increase plans for urban and rural residents, enhancing social security investments for low-income groups and promoting equal access to basic public services [1] Group 2 - The strong renminbi policy has taken shape, with expectations for authorities to actively promote the internationalization of the renminbi this year, expanding its use in international trade, investment, financing, foreign exchange transactions, and commodity pricing [2] - The renminbi's exchange rate is expected to remain strong, supported by economic fundamentals and external competitiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, marking an increase of $41.2 billion from December 2025, representing a growth rate of 1.23% [1] Group 1: Current Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves are at a relatively high level of over $3.3 trillion [2] - The increase in reserves in January was driven by a combination of factors, including a decline in the US dollar index and a general rise in global financial asset prices [2][3] - The dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 in January, with non-US currencies appreciating against the dollar [2][3] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in foreign reserves is supported by the resilience of China's economy and the ongoing enhancement of cross-border investment and financing policies [1][5] - The strong performance of exports, particularly in the machinery and equipment sectors, has contributed to the stability of foreign reserves [5] - The capital market's attractiveness to foreign investors is expected to continue growing, bolstered by favorable economic conditions [5] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of January, China's gold reserves stood at 7.419 million ounces, with a slight increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [6] - The central bank's gold accumulation is seen as a strategy to optimize the international reserve structure amid rising geopolitical risks and fluctuating international gold prices [6][7] - The current gold reserve proportion is approximately 9.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation of gold reserves [6][7]

在配置需求支撑和外资流入的共同作用下，国债期货市场近日明显走强，超长端品种表现尤为突出。30 年期国债期货主力合约大幅反弹，并创下开年以来新高，市场对人民币资产避险属性的关注度同步升 温。 不过，多家机构提示，随着政策预期趋稳、前期逻辑逐步消化，债券市场短期内难以形成单边趋势，后 续或更多以震荡运行、等待新的定价主线为主。 30年期国债期货强势反弹 ◎记者 张欣然 值得注意的是，近期人民币汇率走强，进一步提升了我国债券市场对境外资金的吸引力。多位机构人士 认为，近期债市的走强并非完全由境内因素驱动，境外避险资金的持续流入也是重要支撑。 从外部环境看，开年以来全球金融市场波动明显加大。特别是最近几个交易日，美国、欧洲等主要经济 体国债收益率出现较为明显的反弹，市场一度担忧海外利率上行可能通过比价效应对我国国债收益率形 成牵引。 不过，机构普遍认为，这一影响相对有限。华创证券资管团队在研报中认为，海外市场波动反而可能强 化"利率西升东落"的格局。在海外长端利率抬升、波动加大的背景下，中国利率中枢更可能呈现逐步寻 顶、趋于稳定的特征。 更重要的是，人民币资产的避险属性正在被市场重新定价。华创证券认为，2020年以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in 30 years, indicating a shift in the perception of "safe assets" [1][3]. Group 1: Gold as a Safe Asset - The total value of global official gold reserves has reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1]. - The perception of safety in assets has changed, especially after the U.S. froze Russian central bank reserves, leading many countries to reconsider their reliance on U.S. dollar-denominated assets [1][3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 2023 seeing record levels of gold buying [3][5]. Group 2: Emerging Markets' Role - Emerging markets contributed 75% of the increase in gold purchases, with China’s central bank increasing its gold reserves to 74.15 million ounces over 14 consecutive months [5]. - Countries like Poland and Turkey are actively increasing their gold reserves and implementing innovative policies to encourage gold savings among citizens [6][8]. Group 3: Changing Reserve Composition - The current global reserve composition is approximately 46% in U.S. dollars, 23% in gold, and 16% in euros, indicating a more balanced structure [6]. - Countries are repatriating gold reserves from Western financial centers back to Asia, reflecting a shift in the perceived safety of gold storage locations [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Financial advisors are recommending that clients allocate a portion of their assets to gold, with options like gold ETFs being more accessible and flexible compared to physical gold [10]. - The potential for the U.S. dollar to depreciate and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Treasury yields against inflation are prompting a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies [10][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend towards a multipolar financial system is emerging, with predictions of gold prices potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce by 2026, although this should be viewed with caution [12]. - The transition from paper to gold signifies a global redefinition of safety and credit, emphasizing the importance of incorporating "hard assets" into investment strategies [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment is entering a critical phase, with a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, leading to a revaluation of assets, particularly focusing on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets [3][16]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts in 2026 due to internal liquidity demands rather than fully controlled inflation [5][17]. - The probability of the Fed entering a new expansionary phase is increasing, which may lead to a downward trend in short-term rates while long-term inflation expectations remain elevated, resulting in a steepening yield curve [5][19]. - The correlation between the US dollar index and risk indicators has weakened, indicating a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status during risk events [5][19]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core anchor in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of significant price increases due to long-term upward trends and global liquidity indicators [7][21]. - Silver and certain base metals present elastic opportunities, as historical correlations with global liquidity suggest potential for structural market movements [7][21]. - Both gold and silver are viewed as important stabilizers in asset allocation, with no systemic basis for a downturn amid ongoing Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [7][21]. Group 3: Emerging Markets Revaluation - The transition to a multipolar order is reflected in unconventional market phenomena, such as the weakening of the dollar's safe-haven property and narrowing emerging market spreads, indicating a need for asset revaluation [9][23]. - Emerging markets have surpassed developed economies in manufacturing output, yet their asset valuations do not fully reflect this shift, suggesting significant long-term revaluation potential [9][23]. - The underrepresentation of the multipolar trend in asset prices presents future investment opportunities [9][10][23]. Group 4: RMB Assets and Stock Market - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily in 2026, supported by the Fed's rate cuts and rising price levels in China, with potential for over 30% cumulative appreciation in the long term [11][24]. - The stock market outlook is positive, with expectations for A-shares to reach their peak in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [11][15][26].

从货币属性来看，郑后成认为，在美联储持续降息、美元走弱背景下，黄金与白银均不具备系统性下跌 基础，仍是资产配置中重要的稳定器。 来源：@究竟视频微博 #洪灏称黄金已不再只是避险资产# 【#经济学家称人民币大概率稳步升值#】 黄金与贵金属：从避险资产到"估值锚" 在对贵金属的判断上，洪灏的立场较为乐观。他认为，在全球信用体系重塑背景下，黄金已不再只是传 统意义上的避险资产，而正逐步成为新一轮资产定价体系中的"核心锚"。从长期技术形态与全球流动性 指标来看，黄金仍处于大周期上行阶段，其价格中枢有望显著抬升。 在此基础上，他进一步强调白银及部分有色金属的弹性机会。由于白银在历史尺度上与全球流动性高度 相关，且金银比、金铜比等指标仍处于偏低区间，贵金属内部的结构性行情或尚未充分展开。 人民币资产：汇率与股市的共振逻辑 在人民币资产方面，多位首席经济学家形成了较为一致的判断。郑后成认为，在美联储降息周期与中国 价格水平回升的共同作用下，2026年人民币汇率大概率呈现稳步升值态势，升值节奏可能延续至2027 年。 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟进一步指出，人民币已于2025年进入升值通道，从2026年起，未来数年内可 能形成更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights from the "2026 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting," highlighting the shift in global asset pricing logic and the focus on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets as key investment areas amid a changing macroeconomic environment [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is seen as a critical variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts driven by the financial system's liquidity needs rather than controlled inflation [4]. - There is an increasing probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates and re-enter an expansionary balance sheet cycle in 2026, leading to a downward trend in short-term interest rates while long-term inflation expectations may not decline simultaneously, resulting in a steepening yield curve [6]. - The correlation between the US dollar index and risk indicators has weakened, indicating that the dollar's safe-haven status is no longer stable [6]. Group 2: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold is viewed as transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "core anchor" in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of a significant upward shift in its price center due to the restructuring of the global credit system [9]. - Silver and certain base metals are highlighted for their potential, as silver's historical correlation with global liquidity remains strong, suggesting that structural opportunities within precious metals may not yet be fully realized [9]. - Both gold and silver are considered important stabilizers in asset allocation, with no systemic basis for a decline in their prices amid ongoing rate cuts and a weakening dollar [9]. Group 3: Multi-Polar Order and Asset Repricing - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is reflected in unconventional market phenomena, such as the weakening of the dollar's safe-haven property and the narrowing of emerging market spreads [12]. - Emerging markets are increasingly significant in global manufacturing, trade, and economic growth, yet their asset valuations have not fully adjusted to reflect this change, indicating a long-term repricing opportunity [12][13]. Group 4: RMB Assets - There is a consensus among economists that the RMB is likely to appreciate steadily in 2026 due to the combined effects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and rising price levels in China, with potential for over 30% cumulative appreciation in the long term [15][16]. - The stock market is also viewed positively, with expectations that the A-share market may reach its peak in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [18].

Group 1: Global Asset Revaluation - A new round of asset revaluation is underway, focusing on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets due to a shift in global macroeconomic conditions [1] - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar international order and the renewed divergence in the macro cycles of China and the U.S. are driving this revaluation [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a key variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts and a return to balance sheet expansion by 2026 [2][5] - The relationship between unemployment rates and inflation suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain a dovish stance, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a core anchor in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of significant price increases [9] - Silver and certain base metals are also seen as having potential due to their historical correlation with global liquidity [9] Group 4: Emerging Markets Valuation - Emerging markets are viewed as undervalued, with their manufacturing output surpassing that of developed economies, yet their asset valuations have not fully adjusted to this reality [12] - The ongoing transition to a multipolar world is not yet reflected in asset prices, presenting future investment opportunities [12] Group 5: RMB Assets and Stock Market - The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily through 2026, with potential cumulative gains exceeding 30% in the long term, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and rising price levels in China [13] - The stock market outlook is positive, with expectations of a peak in A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [15]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional fiat currency system, represented by the US dollar, is experiencing credit erosion, leading to a depreciation trend of assets outside of fiat currencies, with strategic assets like energy and precious metals gaining market favor [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlighted the increasing market preference for strategic assets and certain non-traditional fiat currency assets [1] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is noted, as they can be viewed as an asset outside the traditional fiat currency system led by the US, depending on their yield to attract long-term investment [1]