主动外资的净流入，一定程度上代表着外资对A股投资机会的肯定。一方面，A股市场具有较高投资价 值。今年来，上证指数涨幅15.87%，在全球主要经济体股市指数中涨幅靠前，超过纳斯达克及标普500 涨幅。8月以来，沪深300指数涨9.81%、上证指数涨8.66%，在Wind全球大类资产表现中，分别位居第 三、第四。 另一方面，全球资产多元化配置需求为外资投资中国创造良好发展机遇。人民币币值稳定，人民币资产 在全球范围内具有比较独立的收益表现，已成为全球投资者分散风险的重要资产和增厚收益的重要配置 标的。7月国际货币金融机构官方论坛对全球75家央行调研结果显示，30%的央行表示将增配人民币资 产。 （原标题：时报观察丨主动外资转向净流入 人民币资产吸引力提升） 主动外资的净流入，一定程度上代表着外资对A股投资机会的肯定。 全球资金流向监测机构EPFR近日发布的数据显示，8月14日至8月20日，配置型外资转向净流入69.8亿 元，其中被动配置型外资净流入68.4亿元，主动配置型外资净流入1.4亿元。这是主动配置型外资继2024 年10月中旬以来，首次转向净流入。 外资和外资机构是中国市场的重要参与力量，随着中国资产投资 ...

外资和外资机构是中国市场的重要参与力量，随着中国资产投资价值的逐渐凸显，以及对外开放程度的 不断提升，相信会有更多的外资来投资中国。 （文章来源：证券时报） 另一方面，全球资产多元化配置需求为外资投资中国创造良好发展机遇。人民币币值稳定，人民币资产 在全球范围内具有比较独立的收益表现，已成为全球投资者分散风险的重要资产和增厚收益的重要配置 标的。7月国际货币金融机构官方论坛对全球75家央行调研结果显示，30%的央行表示将增配人民币资 产。 除了主动型外资资金，更多的外资也在配置中国资产。国家外汇局7月数据显示，近期外资投资境内股 票总体向好，上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。尤其是 5、6月份，净增持规模增至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置中国境内股市的意愿增强。 全球资金流向监测机构EPFR近日发布的数据显示，8月14日至8月20日，配置型外资转向净流入69.8亿 元，其中被动配置型外资净流入68.4亿元，主动配置型外资净流入1.4亿元。这是主动配置型外资继2024 年10月中旬以来，首次转向净流入。 主动外资的净流入，一定程度上代表着外资对A股投资机会的肯定。一方面， ...

美联储独立性受到考验 今年以来，特朗普加大了对美联储理事会的施压力度。分析人士认为，特朗普试图解雇库克的职务意在为美联储理事会制造更多空缺，扩大其对美联 储货币政策的影响力。 新华财经上海8月26日电（葛佳明）美国总统特朗普25日在其社交媒体"真实社交"（Truth Social）上公开了一封致美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook） 的信件，宣布即刻将其免职。库克随后发表声明称，特朗普无权解雇她，她不会辞职，将继续履行职责。 根据美国《联邦储备法》第10条，总统仅能基于"正当理由"罢免美联储理事，虽然法律并未明确规定具体原因，但这一标准通常被解读为"渎职或重 大过失"。目前库克尚未受到任何犯罪指控，特朗普对其免职一事引发了市场对于美联储独立性的担忧，美元信用再受动摇。美国股指期货应声下 挫，美元走弱，黄金短线走强。 余下6名成员中，美联储主席鲍威尔、美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒均由特朗普在第一个总统任期内提名任 命，包括库克在内在其余三位美联储理事由前美国总统拜登提名任命。 美联储理事会是美联储的核心决策机构，共有7个席位，均由美国总统提名并需经国会参议院批准，目前有 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the tension within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions amidst conflicting economic indicators and political pressures from President Trump [4][5][6][7][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC meeting on July 29 revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against the decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [5]. - Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller expressed concerns that failing to lower rates could leave the Fed behind the economic curve, citing declining consumer demand and a cooling job market [5]. - The meeting concluded with a 9-2 vote to keep rates unchanged, removing previous language suggesting potential rate cuts based on future data [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals, with the core CPI rising to 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, while PCE inflation is near the ideal level of 2% when excluding tariff impacts [7]. - The second quarter GDP appeared to rebound, but this was primarily due to a decrease in imports, with domestic demand growth at a two-and-a-half-year low [7]. - The burden of $37 trillion in national debt is highlighted, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, consuming a significant portion of federal tax revenue [7]. Group 3: Political Influence and Market Reactions - President Trump's direct demand for a 300 basis point rate cut has intensified scrutiny on the Fed's independence, leading to market volatility and speculation about Powell's job security [4][6]. - Following Trump's contradictory statements regarding Powell's potential dismissal, market reactions included a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [4]. - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut in September, with expectations rising from under 40% to nearly 90% [10]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - A global financial shift is underway, with central banks selling $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries and accumulating 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [8]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN moving towards alternative trade networks [8]. - China's holdings of U.S. debt have dropped to their lowest level since 2009, while the use of the yuan in cross-border transactions has surged [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how China's innovative approach to integrating rare earth elements with the Renminbi (RMB) is reshaping the global monetary system amidst challenges to the US dollar's dominance [1][3]. Group 1: Rare Earth Elements and Their Importance - China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, controlling over 80% of it, making rare earths critical for various industries including renewable energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and aerospace [1][3]. - Rare earths are described as "industrial gold," highlighting their strategic value that surpasses that of typical resources, making them essential for national security [1]. Group 2: Financial Innovation and Digital Integration - China is transforming the physical attributes of rare earths into financial assets through advanced digital technologies, creating a transparent and traceable credit network [3]. - This innovation allows for precise tracking of rare earths from extraction to circulation, enhancing the credibility of transactions and avoiding the limitations associated with gold reserves [3]. Group 3: Impact on the Renminbi and Global Trade - The deep integration of rare earths with the RMB provides a solid backing for the currency, enhancing its credibility and facilitating its use in international trade [3][5]. - As rare earth transactions increasingly utilize the RMB, it elevates the currency's status on the global stage and allows for broader dissemination of rare earth value through the RMB [3]. Group 4: Benefits for the General Public - The connection between rare earths and the RMB simplifies cross-border transactions, reducing costs and making overseas purchases more accessible for individuals [5]. - Investment opportunities based on rare earths and RMB assets are expected to diversify options for investors, allowing broader participation in global resource allocation [5]. - The binding of RMB credit to the tangible value of rare earths helps mitigate inflation risks associated with excessive dollar issuance, safeguarding public wealth [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's foreign exchange market performed better than expected in the first half of the year, with stable foreign capital allocation in RMB assets and a positive outlook for future investment [1][3][6] - The foreign exchange market showed strong resilience and vitality, with five key features: steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in supply and demand, active market trading, and stable foreign exchange reserves [1][6] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, which helped stabilize the macro economy and international payments [1][6] Group 2 - Foreign capital's allocation in RMB assets is expected to have sustainable growth potential, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, and a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [3][4] - The international balance of payments is maintaining basic equilibrium, with a steady increase in the current account surplus and a corresponding financial account deficit, indicating a self-balancing pattern [2][6] - Three factors are expected to support the continued stable operation of the foreign exchange market: robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up to the outside world, and enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amid complex external conditions, with stable expectations for the RMB exchange rate and continued net inflows of cross-border capital [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The combined settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks amounted to $2.3 trillion, up 3% year-on-year, the second-highest level for the same period [3]. - The RMB accounted for 53% of cross-border transactions, indicating its growing importance in international trade [3]. Capital Inflows and Market Stability - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border capital from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [3]. - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [5][11]. - The foreign exchange market showed balanced supply and demand, with a total trading volume of $21 trillion, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [8]. - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [8]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, indicating potential for further growth in foreign investment in RMB assets [8][9]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the financial market [9]. - The foreign exchange market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical adjustments, with improved regulatory effectiveness to mitigate external shocks [11]. - The overall balance of payments is expected to maintain a pattern of current account surpluses and capital account deficits, contributing to market stability [11].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience and vitality in the first half of 2023, with a steady increase in foreign exchange receipts and a net inflow of cross-border funds, exceeding market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of 2023, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [1]. - The foreign exchange market maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with active trading and stable foreign exchange reserves [1][2]. Group 2: Capital and Financial Account Analysis - The increase in the current account surplus corresponds to an expansion of the capital and financial account deficit, which should not be interpreted as increased capital outflow pressure [2]. - The capital and financial account deficit is primarily due to increased outward investment by domestic entities, while foreign investment in China remains net inflow [2]. Group 3: Attractiveness of Renminbi Assets - The Renminbi appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2023, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, indicating stability and serving as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international payments [3]. - Foreign investment in Renminbi-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, and net foreign purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached $10.1 billion in the first half of 2023 [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Foreign Investment - The foreign investment in Renminbi assets is expected to have stable and sustainable growth, supported by a robust economic environment and improved financial market conditions [3][4]. - Approximately 30% of central banks surveyed indicated plans to increase their allocation to Renminbi assets, reflecting a growing global interest [4]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives for Trade and Investment - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is implementing measures to enhance trade facilitation, cross-border investment, and financing, including reforms to streamline foreign exchange business processes [6][7]. - SAFE plans to expand innovative policies in free trade zones to promote cross-border trade and investment, including optimizing international trade settlement and enhancing the efficiency of foreign debt registration [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability and resilience of China's foreign exchange market in the context of a complex global economic environment, highlighting key factors that support this stability, including economic growth, high-level opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][5]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The service trade deficit decreased by 14%, with service trade income growing by 13% and cross-border travel income increasing by 42% [10]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in net inflow in the second quarter [6]. - The total net increase in foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds was $10.1 billion, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [7]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [12]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors' holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeded $600 billion, indicating a stable investment environment [7]. - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting the asset's appeal for diversification and risk management [8]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [9]. - The total volume of foreign exchange transactions in the domestic RMB market reached $21 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [14]. Overall Market Activity - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, marking a historical high for the same period [16]. - The combined scale of bank settlements and sales of foreign exchange was $2.3 trillion, the second-highest for the same period historically [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Economic cycle: Tariff easing does not slow the cycle. Assuming the Fed's monetary policy remains cautious in the short - term (before the August central bank annual meeting), the constrained monetary liquidity (-0.42) is unlikely to change. After the short - term rebound of production and consumption indicators, the macro - economy may return to the cycle adjustment state. The real economic cycle has been more positive than expected since November 2024. As risk events land in the second and third quarters, the cycle bottoming process is expected to accelerate. The short - term economic cycle, especially the overseas economic cycle, is downgraded, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - demand decline on asset prices in the third quarter [8]. - Macro strategy: The US dollar may have only weakened temporarily in the first half of the year due to policy fluctuations and will turn to a safe - haven - driven rise in the second half as trade risks materialize. Gold's rise is cautious as the economic contraction effect of Tariff War 2.0 remains to be seen. The "Big Beautiful" bill expands the total scale of US Treasury bonds, and fiscal sustainability depends more on changes in interest - rate expectations. Interest rates may turn neutral from rising in the third quarter. A - shares have long - term attractiveness, and the yield curve should be steepened strategically after risks subside [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Real Economic State: Tariff Easing Does Not Slow the Cycle - Short - term economic heat has rebounded. Production (+0.70) has improved month - on - month, and consumption (-0.02) has also significantly recovered (+0.37). However, forward - looking indicators and price - type indicators suggest that the macro - cycle has not improved significantly. With the Fed's cautious policy in the short - term, the constrained monetary liquidity (-0.44) is unlikely to change, and the macro - economy may return to adjustment after the short - term rebound [16]. Economic Growth: Short - term Inventory Replenishment Brings Resilience - Since mid - 2022, the global macro - cycle has been under pressure. As of May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI heat value is - 0.51 (-0.09), still in an "unfavorable" state. Except for Europe, the global macro - economic climate has slowed or declined to varying degrees [19][20]. Inflation: The Sound of Asset Price Bursting - The downward trend of macro - prices continues. Since August 2024, the global inflation heat value has been in a "cold" state. As of May 2025, it is - 0.47, up 0.11 percentage points month - on - month, and the risk of price adjustment remains. In June, there was a short - term rapid price increase, which may signal a cycle change [21][23]. Market Cycle Pricing: Focus on RMB Assets - The market's downward pricing remains unchanged. The real economic cycle has been more positive than expected since November 2024. As risk events land in 2025, the cycle bottoming process will accelerate. The short - term economic cycle, especially the overseas one, is downgraded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the third - quarter macro - demand decline on asset prices. High - interest - rate economies should focus on debt - fluctuation risks, while low - interest - rate economies should focus on the pressure of reduced real demand [26]. US Treasury Bond Liquidity: The US Cycle Continues to Be Pressured - The US debt - ceiling issue affects the US dollar. In 2025, the restart of the debt - ceiling issue increased the refinancing pressure of US Treasury bonds, and the market's macro - expectations of the US and Europe led to a decline in the US dollar index in the first half of the year. The resolution of the debt - ceiling issue is crucial for stabilizing US Treasury bond liquidity. The "Stablecoin Act" has limited short - term effects. The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating may speed up the resolution of the debt - ceiling issue. The focus in the second half of the year is on the increase of the debt ceiling and the change of the Fed's balance - sheet policy [30][38][40]. High Energy Prices: A Stress Test for Non - US Cycles - There is a divergence in the money - market liquidity between China and Europe. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and its balance sheet has been shrinking. The People's Bank of China cut interest rates and reserve - requirement ratios in May, and its balance sheet has been expanding. High energy prices may affect the European economy, while China focuses on balancing debt leverage and improving real - economy liquidity [50]. Macro Strategy: Bearish but Not Short - Selling, Rising After a Slow Start - Global macro - policies are turning. The market needs to re - balance inflation expectations and interest rates. The US dollar may turn to a safe - haven - driven rise in the second half of the year. Gold's rise is cautious, and US Treasury bond interest rates may turn neutral. A - shares have long - term attractiveness, and the yield curve should be steepened strategically after risks subside [64][65][66]. Overseas Macro: Policy Aims to Expand, but Pressure Looms - The Fed's monetary policy is on standby. The short - term easing of the tariff war has improved the US financial conditions, but fiscal uncertainties remain. The Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates due to potential price pressure and needs a "low" and "moderate" interest - rate level [67]. Domestic Macro: Waiting for the Release of External Pressure - China's short - term economic data is relatively stable, but private - sector demand is under pressure. With the reduction of external "non - interest - rate - cut" constraints, domestic macro - policies may expand in the third quarter. However, there is a risk of a further decline in macro - data in the second half of the year [69].