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谢治宇:全球开始处在一个前所未有的全新周期中 以人民币为代表的资产仍有上升空间
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-22 07:26
谢治宇表示,我想与大家讨论大类资产在目前的情况下存在的新的挑战: 第一,这几年不管是投资股票、研究经济,我们谈到最多的是,我们处在一个新的周期。过去我们整个 经济处在以美国消费为核心的全球化的周期里。所以,美国需求周期决定整个全球经济景气度。美元作 为最主要的结算货币,它的波动影响了各国货币政策的波动。但这件事情在近几年里也发生了巨大的变 化——去全球化导致不同经济体的周期开始错位,原因有三个: 首先,非美的发达国家货币政策节奏跟美国开始不一样。其次是供应链重塑,各国都处在新工业化进程 里,它不再是以单中心消费为主的全球化过程。最后,中国在这个过程中严守财政货币纪律,我们整体 经济政策和美国经济周期错位。这一定程度上打破了过去经济周期研究范式。在这种情况下,更好的对 策是做资产比较的时候,考虑国别的维度,不再是简单把海外的情况分成美国和其他,我们也越来越多 地看到企业在做决策时,把美国、欧洲、亚洲以及非洲、拉美等不同国家、不同地区作为决策的影响因 素。 专题:"投资·向善"——复旦管院·兴动ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会 2025年9月22日,兴证全球基金、兴银理财、复旦大学管理学院携手举办的"投 ...
人民币资产吸引力提升
记者丨郭聪聪 编辑丨周炎炎 美联储时隔9个月后重启降息。 当地时间9月17日,美国联邦储备委员会(以下简称"美联储")结束了为期两天的货币政策会议,决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点,至4.00%~4.25%之间。 这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息,也是继2024年三次合计降息100个基点之后,对货币政策的 又一次调整。 多名分析人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,此次降息符合市场此前预期。在这一政策落地背后,市场仍关 注三大核心问题:美联储为何选择此时降息?本次降息为国际金融市场带来哪些连锁反应?包括中国在 内的经济体又该如何应对新的货币政策空间与挑战? "风险管理式"调整 "对于政策制定者而言,在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡,是一个困境。"据央视新 闻报道,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上直言,当前美国经济形势"非常特殊"——通常情况下,劳动 力市场疲软时通胀会同步走低,劳动力市场强劲时则需警惕通胀升温,但如今美国面临的是"双向风 险"——一方面通胀持续攀升,另一方面劳动力市场表现疲弱。 从经济数据来看,美国就业市场的放缓迹象成为推动降息的重要因素。本月初,美国劳工统计局 (BL ...
美元创1995年新低,全球降息潮来袭,中国资产迎大涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 16:39
一场"技术性"地震:美元的三十年低谷与全球金融秩序的暗流涌动 2025年9月17日晚,华尔街的交易大厅在美联储宣布降息25个基点的消息传来时,瞬间被一股复杂的情 绪裹挟。股市先是经历了一轮短暂的狂欢,随后迅速跌入恐慌的深渊。然而,更令人跌破眼镜的是,与 降息同时出现的,是美元指数跌至1995年以来的历史性低谷。这场看似例行的货币政策调整,背后却隐 藏着足以撼动全球金融体系的重重经济隐患。美债、美元、乃至中国资产,究竟谁将最先迎来"爆雷"的 时刻?这需要我们抽丝剥茧,细细探寻。 从"50"到"25":预期落空下的股市哀鸿遍野 在美联储内部,9月17日的降息投票并非铁板一块,出现了一张反对票,这位"异议者"显然更倾向于更 为激进的降息幅度。虽然这一微小的分歧被媒体放大解读,并引发了场内外的各种猜测,但真正的裂痕 并非仅限于利率本身,而是直指美元作为全球储备货币的信用根基。一位身处华尔街的交易员朋友在深 夜发来的语音中,一语道破天机:"我们不怕降息,怕的是信念崩了。"这句话,道出了市场深层次的焦 虑。 中东的变局:石油-美元链条的松动 将目光投向地缘政治,过去几年里,中东地区几次关键事件的演变,让维系美元霸权的"石 ...
美联储开启新一轮降息 人民币资产吸引力提升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 23:37
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.00%-4.25% and hinted at two more cuts this year, leading to mixed reactions in global markets [1][5] - After the rate cut, U.S. stock indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.57% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.10% and 0.33% respectively [1] - The Chinese stock market initially rose but later fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% and the Shenzhen Component down 1.06% [1] Group 2 - The offshore RMB appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.10 mark, influenced by the Fed's rate cut and improved cross-border capital flows [1][3] - Analysts expect the RMB to remain stable with potential for appreciation, but further catalysts are needed to break the 7 level [3][4] - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential is expected to attract more global funds to RMB assets [1][3] Group 3 - Gold prices reached a record high of $3744 per ounce before retreating to $3692, indicating market volatility following the Fed's announcement [2][9] - Analysts suggest that the initial rise in gold prices may have been a reaction to the rate cut, but the market is now adjusting to the new information [7][9] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding $4000 to $5000 per ounce [9]
美联储降息为我国货币政策提供更大操作空间
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-09-18 16:17
从汇率角度看,东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受《证券日报》记者采访时分析,伴随美联储 降息以及美国经济降温,美元指数还将承受一定下行压力,这将为人民币带来被动升值动能。 不过,白雪也提醒,由于上半年美元跌幅巨大,后期也会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内基本面方面,逆周期 调节政策适时加力将确保经济运行基本稳定,这方面有充足的政策空间,将为人民币汇率提供重要的内 在支撑。由此,接下来人民币汇率预计仍将以稳为主,快速升值或大幅贬值的风险都不大。 从货币政策角度看,业界普遍认为,美联储重启降息,我国货币政策面临的外部掣肘将进一步减弱,操 作空间也将有所拓宽。 从人民币资产角度看,刘涛认为,境外资金有望在一定程度上加快流向人民币资产。中美利差进一步收 窄将吸引更多全球资金关注人民币资产。对于全球投资者而言,其本质是追求资产收益的最大化。在新 的利差预期变化下,投资人民币资产能够带来更为可观的收益,促使其重新调整资产配置组合,增加对 中国债券、股票等资产的持有比例,尤其是一些被低估优质资产和具备较高增长潜力的资产,从而有可 能带来更多增量流动性。 与上次降息时隔9个月,美联储重启降息终于"靴子落地",这对于我国宏观经济有着 ...
美联储开启降息周期 人民币资产吸引力提升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 14:01
美联储完成年内首次降息后,各类资产表现各异,揭示了市场的复杂情绪:既有对流动性改善的期待, 也有对全球经济前景的担忧。 北京时间9月18日凌晨,美联储宣布降息25个基点至4.00%~4.25%,并暗示年内或再降两次。降息消息 公布后,美股三大股指当日涨跌不一,道琼斯指数上涨0.57%,标普500下跌0.10%;纳斯达克下跌 0.33%。A股18日早盘整体涨势喜人,但是午后集体下跌,最终上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别收 跌1.15%、1.06%、1.64%;香港恒生指数当日跌幅1.35%,收报26544.85点。日经指数18日则收于 45303.43点,上涨1.15%。 对全球金融市场而言,美联储重启降息周期将推动全球流动性条件边际改善,从历史经验看,美联储降 息通常会缓解新兴市场资本外流压力,支撑风险资产价格。 "对人民币资产而言,中美利差收窄将缓解贬值压力,但国内经济基本面仍将是决定外资流向的关键因 素。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,近日人民币对美元汇率走高,与此次美联储降息,以及年底 前可能进一步大幅度降息的预期有关。 人民币汇率当日并未出现大幅波动。人民币对美元中间价报7.1085,较前一日下调7 ...
美联储开启降息周期,人民币资产吸引力提升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 13:15
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, with indications of potentially two more cuts within the year [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.10% and 0.33% respectively [1] - A-shares initially rose but later fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate showed stability, with the onshore yuan against the dollar at 7.1085, down 72 basis points from the previous day [1][3] - Analysts expect the yuan to appreciate further, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. [3][4] - The overall sentiment in the market suggests that the yuan will remain stable, with no significant risks of rapid appreciation or depreciation [5] Group 3: A-Share Market Trends - A-shares experienced a significant trading volume of 3.13 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity despite a mid-day adjustment [6] - Analysts believe that the recent adjustments in the A-share market are normal and do not signify the end of the upward trend [6] - Structural opportunities in sectors such as solar energy, batteries, and artificial intelligence are recommended for investors [6][7] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices reached a record high of $3,744 per ounce before retreating to $3,692, reflecting market uncertainty regarding future price movements [2][8] - The expectation of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a supportive factor for gold prices, with predictions of potential increases to $4,000 or even $5,000 per ounce by major financial institutions [9] - Despite the bullish outlook, short-term volatility risks remain due to global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [9]
刚刚,中国资产爆发!解读来了
时隔9个月,美联储重启降息,引发全球资金高度关注。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪向记者分析,降息通过降低融资成本和提升流动性,通常能提振风 险偏好,推动全球资产配置向风险资产倾斜。历史数据显示,在"预防式降息"周期(如1995—1996年、 2019年)中,美股尤其是利率敏感的科技成长板块和中小盘股表现突出。同时,美债收益率在降息周期 中普遍下行,10年期美债平均下跌80—100个基点,长期债券和投资级公司债由此受益。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 截至9月18日早盘收盘,A股三大指数上涨。同日,中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布,银行间 外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1085元。 从国际市场来看,当地时间9月17日,美联储如期降息25个基点,将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%— 4.25%。中国资产表现强劲,纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.85%。 中信证券跟踪发现,在美联储降息的宏观背景下,主动外资持续流入中国资本市场。目前港股市场投资 者结构中,外资占比从低位略有回暖,目前占比在66%的水平,对比2022年79%的水平仍有较大提升空 间。 星展中国投资策略师朱星汇接受《中国经营报》记 ...
李家超:研究让投资者在单一平台集中管理及相互抵押股票和债券等不同资产
Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to strengthen its position as a bond center by enhancing financial infrastructure [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will collaborate with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) to develop a platform for centralized management and cross-collateralization of various assets [1] - Plans include establishing connections with markets in Switzerland and the UAE, and promoting the use of offshore Chinese government bonds as collateral in different clearing houses [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is exploring the feasibility of a market-operated electronic bond trading platform [1] - There is an active push to establish a commercial repurchase market and a central counterparty system in Hong Kong to enhance market liquidity [1]
下周正式降息,全球资金加速流入,中国市场迎来投资新机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 16:58
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strategic shift in capital flow, with short-term funds targeting bank stocks while growth stocks are being quietly absorbed, driven by a decline in interest rates and a corresponding decrease in discount rates, enhancing the future cash flow value of growth stocks [2] - A notable observation is that despite the overall market not showing significant gains, the trading structure reveals signs of strategic adjustments, with institutions reallocating from dollar-denominated assets to A-shares, particularly those with undervalued valuations [2][4] - The influx of foreign capital is not merely a reaction to the "China story," but rather a pursuit of cost-effectiveness and liquidity opportunities, as highlighted by a macro analyst's perspective on the nature of foreign investment [6] Group 2 - The data on capital flows indicates that while northbound capital net purchases reached a peak in August, the distribution of funds is highly uneven, with a few core industries attracting significant investment, suggesting a targeted approach rather than a broad-based strategy [8] - The valuation gap between A-shares and major Western stock indices has been frequently discussed, with some comparable companies in sectors like semiconductors and new energy showing price-to-earnings ratios that are even 20% lower than their US counterparts, indicating a tangible investment appeal [10] - The market is witnessing a shift from passive acceptance of foreign capital to actively seeking a new balance between passive reception and proactive engagement, as the rhythm of capital inflow becomes clearer [14]