Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in gold prices reflects market repricing of interest rate environment and risk sentiment [1][3] - Current increase in gold prices is driven by multiple expectations rather than a single factor [1][3] Macroeconomic Factors - The core impact of interest rate cut expectations is the change in holding costs [1][3] - As interest rate cut expectations strengthen, funds are more likely to flow into inflation-resistant and value-preserving assets [1][3] - Periodic safety events amplify market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets, providing additional support for gold prices [1][3] Short-term Influences - Short-term disturbances exist, with some officials signaling tighter policies, leading to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1][3] - These signals reflect policy divergence rather than a trend reversal, with the market expected to reassess based on employment and inflation data [1][3] Data Considerations - Upcoming employment report is a key variable influencing short-term trends [4] - A slowdown in the labor market could further solidify easing expectations; conversely, strong data may trigger a technical pullback in gold prices, but not necessarily alter the mid-term structure [4] Technical Structure - Gold prices are currently in a relatively favorable position, remaining above key moving averages with strong momentum indicators, indicating that the bullish trend is not broken [4] - If the key resistance zone is effectively breached, sentiment and funds may resonate, driving prices further upward [4] Long-term Outlook - In the context of interest rate cycles, risk preferences, and technical patterns, gold retains medium to long-term investment appeal [2][4] - Short-term fluctuations are seen as rhythm adjustments, with a focus on the overall trend rather than individual events causing emotional swings [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price remains above 4200, but there is a noticeable divergence in market sentiment, indicating cautious short-term trading behavior [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Global stock market sentiment is generally positive, leading to a temporary decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, which suppresses its upward movement [1][4]. - The market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key economic data releases, resulting in a stagnant trading range for gold above 4200 [1][4]. - Multiple macroeconomic factors are influencing gold's current consolidation phase, reflecting market participants' ongoing digestion of future expectations [1][4]. Interest Rate Expectations - There is a growing market expectation for a rate cut next week, with nearly 90% probability for a 25 basis point reduction, which keeps the dollar weak and supports non-yielding assets like gold [1][4]. - Recent economic data indicates signs of slowing growth, and a dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials reinforces expectations for monetary easing [1][4]. - Potential candidates for high-level positions are perceived to favor a more accommodative policy approach, further deepening market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [1][4]. Global Risk Factors - Uncertainty in global risk has not dissipated, with several regional events causing fluctuations in risk appetite, although these events do not directly alter the global economic trajectory [2][5]. - Ongoing negotiations and communications have not yielded substantial progress, increasing investor sensitivity to potential risks [2][5]. - The interplay of macro expectations, market sentiment, and uncertainty contributes to gold's current "limited downside, limited upside" trading pattern [2][5]. Technical Analysis - Significant buying support was observed in the 4155 to 4150 range, indicating it remains a core defense line for bulls [2][5]. - If gold cannot establish itself above the strong resistance zone of 4245 to 4250, the upward trend may remain unconfirmed [2][5]. - A breakthrough in this resistance zone could lead gold to gradually approach resistance levels of 4264 to 4265 and 4277 to 4278, with a potential attempt to reach the 4300 mark [2][5]. Support Levels - If gold falls below 4200, there is a high probability that bulls will continue to support it, especially at the critical pivot point of 4150 [3][6]. - A significant breach of this support could see gold retreat to 4100 and further test the support range of 4075 to 4073, which is reinforced by technical indicators [3][6]. - This support area is considered the most robust technical support at this stage, and its stability is crucial for maintaining a bullish outlook on gold [3][6]. Conclusion - Gold is currently navigating a complex framework influenced by interest rate expectations, market sentiment, global uncertainties, and technical structures [3][6]. - The market's attitude towards the 4200 to 4150 range will be pivotal in determining the overall direction, with upcoming PCE data expected to provide a definitive signal for future movements [3][6].