Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on August 15 in Alaska is expected to influence market sentiment positively, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices [1][6]. - The S&P 500 futures rose by over 0.1%, indicating a slight increase in US stock market expectations [1][7]. - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.27%, and other major indices also showing positive movement [1]. Group 2 - The Vietnamese stock index increased by over 1%, surpassing the 1600-point mark, reaching a new historical high [2]. - The US dollar index fell by more than 0.1%, while the Japanese yen and euro saw slight increases [2]. - Bitcoin surged past $122,000, marking a near one-month high, driven by institutional and corporate investments [4][6]. Group 3 - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 1 basis point [3]. - Crude oil prices fell by over 1.1% to below $63.20, while Brent crude dropped by over 0.9% to below $66 [5][13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $3360 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 1%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The silver price has been strong recently, hitting a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If market risk sentiment rebounds, it will be relatively beneficial for silver. The operation for both gold and silver is mainly to buy on dips for hedging. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 784.84 yuan/gram, a change of 0.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 788.50 yuan/gram and closed at 792.94 yuan/gram, up 0.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,301.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,393.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 961,563 lots, and the open interest was 476,010 lots. The night session opened at 9,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,453 yuan/kilogram, up 0.75% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year was 0.52%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract on July 22, 2025, the long positions changed by -1,071 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,243 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 290,023 lots, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, on the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -2,522 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,238,108 lots, a change of 40.57% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 954.80 tons the previous day, an increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, an increase of 152.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 22, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -5.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -853.24 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange the previous day was about 83.56, a change of -0.90% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.41, a change of -0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On July 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,546 kilograms, a change of 23.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537,430 kilograms, a change of 78.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,208 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 26,070 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price was 9184 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.52% and a trading volume of 735,125 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price was quoted at 9146 yuan per kilogram, showing a discount of 79 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures main price [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations related to drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [1] Group 2 - Guotou Futures reported that precious metals experienced volatility due to the announcement of high U.S. tariff rates, with the EU preparing to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail [2] - The market remains uncertain, and risk sentiment may fluctuate, leading to continued volatility in precious metals [2] - Attention is on the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could impact market movements [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 9207 yuan/kg on July 14, with a daily increase of 2.11% and a trading volume of 1,093,003 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 9168 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 39 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, escalating trade tensions [1][2] Group 2 - Trump demanded that the EU eliminate tariffs to reduce the significant trade deficit, emphasizing the need for open market access [2] - The response from the EU and Mexico indicated that the tariffs are unfair and destructive, with commitments to continue negotiations for a broader trade agreement [1][2] - According to Guotou Futures, precious metals, including silver, are expected to remain volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of gold prices, which have fallen below the 3300 mark, and explores the implications of trade tensions on market risk sentiment [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have dropped below the significant threshold of 3300, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - The article suggests that renewed trade tensions may be influencing risk sentiment among investors, potentially leading to increased volatility in the gold market [1] - The analysis includes insights on how trend traders might position themselves in response to these market changes [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Post - holiday, the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries remains weak, and some manufacturers continue to consume inventory. With the current off - season, lead prices may stay relatively weak. However, due to the improved market sentiment from the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, lead prices may be relatively resistant to decline under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector. The recommended operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $4.69 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,995 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 42,622 lots, an increase of 13,667 lots. The holding volume was 33,309 lots, a decrease of 145 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,800 - 17,015 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close. After the basis widened, some Henan suppliers' discount to the SHFE lead 2506 contract slightly expanded to 180 - 160 yuan/ton. Hunan smelters maintained a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price, and traders' discount was about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions improved compared to last Friday, with downstream buyers mainly for rigid demand and some enterprises restocking slightly [2] Inventory - On May 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week. As of May 12, the LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the recent trade agreement between the US and UK, which has led to increased risk sentiment and a decline in bullish sentiment for spot gold [1] - Trump has encouraged buying stocks, resulting in a bullish trend for US stock indices, raising questions about future market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 73% compared to 27% bearish [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 69% against 31% bearish [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bearish sentiment at 84% compared to 16% bullish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 42% against 58% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a significant bearish sentiment at 83% against 17% bullish [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair shows a slight bullish sentiment of 52% against 48% bearish [3] - The Euro/GBP pair has a strong bearish sentiment at 73% compared to 27% bullish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 82% against 18% bullish [3] - The Euro/AUD pair shows a bearish sentiment of 67% compared to 33% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 70% against 30% bearish [3] - The GBP/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 69% compared to 31% bullish [3] - The USD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 69% against 31% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% compared to 40% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bearish sentiment at 88% against 12% bullish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 76% against 24% bearish [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 59% compared to 41% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 63% against 37% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a strong bearish sentiment at 64% compared to 36% bullish [4] - The USD/CNH pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 75% against 25% bearish [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a period of consolidation, influenced by multiple factors, as it awaits key data for direction [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are dominating market sentiment, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points in 2025, which weakens the dollar and supports gold [3][4] - Recent risk events have dampened safe-haven demand for gold, as market sentiment improves due to reduced concerns over tariffs and signs of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation [4] - Macroeconomic data, such as the rise in the US March Composite PMI from 51.6 to 53.5, has caused temporary fluctuations in the dollar, but overall economic concerns remain, with upcoming consumer confidence and new home sales data being crucial for gold's outlook [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The psychological level of $3000 serves as a battleground for bulls and bears, with potential support at $2982-$2978 if this level is breached [7] - Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing volatility, suggesting a period of consolidation, while long-term moving averages confirm an upward trend [8] - Momentum indicators like MACD show signs of weakening bullish momentum, with a potential for technical selling if certain thresholds are crossed [9] Group 3: Future Trend Outlook - The medium to long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, but short-term adjustments are expected, particularly if the PCE data reinforces rate cut expectations [11] - A breakthrough above $3058 could lead to a move towards the $3100 level, contingent on confirming bullish signals from technical indicators [11] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected US economic data could diminish the urgency for rate cuts, potentially leading to a deeper correction in gold prices [12]