Market Overview - On November 17, spot gold initially surged above the $4100 mark, reaching a high of $4106.57 per ounce before retreating to below $4100, with a low of $4048 per ounce, maintaining a defensive stance for the third consecutive day [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike diminished after influential FOMC members expressed skepticism about lowering borrowing costs, which provided some support for the US dollar, acting as a headwind for non-yielding gold [1] - Concerns over the longest government shutdown in US history potentially weakening economic momentum opened the door for further easing policies from the US central bank, stabilizing gold above the one-week low of approximately $4,032 [1] Technical Analysis - The weekly gold chart shows a long upper shadow small bullish candle, with the 5-week moving average turning downward, indicating a potential test of the 10-week moving average support in the short term [2] - The daily chart indicates a significant downward movement last Friday, leading to a contraction in the Bollinger Bands, with prices falling below the 5-day moving average, establishing a basis for potential further declines this week [2] - Key resistance levels to watch this week are around the 5-day moving average at $4130-$4135; if gold remains below this level, larger declines are likely [2] Short-term Outlook - The 4-hour chart indicates a slow upward movement followed by a rapid decline, confirming that the previous rise was not strong but rather a secondary peak [4] - The adjustment wave is expected to start from the high of $4245, with a potential target of breaking the low of $3887, suggesting that existing short positions should be maintained [4] - For the beginning of the week, a test of resistance around $4105-$4110 is anticipated, with aggressive traders advised to consider short positions at $4130, targeting $4080-$4030 [4]

Investment Logic - The recent decline in international gold prices follows a strong upward trend, influenced by a stronger US dollar, high interest rates, and a recovery in global risk appetite [2][5] - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is crucial; a strong dollar increases the cost of purchasing gold for non-dollar investors, leading to decreased demand [3][4] - High interest rates have made holding gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold rises [4][5] - The previous surge in gold prices was driven by heightened geopolitical and financial risks, but this "safe-haven" demand is now diminishing as global stock indices rise and recession fears recede [5] Consumption Logic - Domestic gold jewelry prices are influenced by international gold prices but often show a lag due to factors like pricing strategies, processing upgrades, and brand premiums [6][7] - Brand premiums in the domestic market can lead to retail prices being significantly higher than the raw material costs, with some brands showing a premium of 20%-25% over the gold material price [7] - The demand for gold jewelry is evolving, with younger consumers redefining gold as an investment product rather than just a traditional wedding item, leading to increased spending on gold jewelry [8][9] Future Outlook - Future gold price movements will be shaped by macroeconomic policies and changes in consumer behavior, with potential for price increases if central banks adopt more accommodative stances [10][11] - The domestic gold jewelry market is expected to continue evolving, with trends towards branding, design, and smaller weights, driven by changing consumer preferences [10][11] - Understanding the dual logic of gold as both an investment and a consumer product will be crucial for investors, consumers, and brands in navigating the market [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the U.S. September CPI year - on - year growth rate was lower than expected, and China - U.S. economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address respective concerns. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In terms of U.S. dollar - denominated assets, commodities > stocks > bonds. In China, stocks and commodities closed higher, and the bond market was weakly volatile. Overall, stocks > commodities > bonds. The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the market sentiment was relatively stable, and major global stock markets generally closed higher. U.S. stocks had the highest gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index had a significant weekly decline [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 1.87% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%. In the American market, the MSCI USA rose 1.93%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.92%. In other markets, the Istanbul ISE100 rose 7.18% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the lower - than - expected September inflation data supported the Fed to further cut interest rates. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2BP weekly, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained flat at 4.02%. The bond market weakened weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - The global bond index fell 0.19% in a week, the global government bond index fell 0.37%, the global credit bond index rose 0.05%, and the global high - yield bond index rose 0.36% [13]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, recent U.S. data showed economic resilience, and the U.S. dollar index closed higher weekly. Major non - U.S. currencies had mixed performances against the U.S. dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.39% weekly [14]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - The U.S. government announced sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, causing international oil prices to soar weekly. The market's risk - aversion sentiment cooled recently, and precious metal prices declined weekly. Major industrial and agricultural products prices generally rose [17]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose 3.28%, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index rose 3.65%. Brent crude oil rose 5.84%, and WTI crude oil rose 7.32%. The S&P Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Total Return Index fell 1.83% [17][19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Policy boosted market confidence, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest gains. In terms of sectors, communications, electronics, etc. had high gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 198.1 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable. The bond market was weakly volatile weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index fell 0.07% in a week, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Return Index rose 0.14%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Return Index fell 0.13%, and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Return Index rose 0.12% [24]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market closed higher weekly. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, and precious metals performed poorly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on August 15 in Alaska is expected to influence market sentiment positively, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices [1][6]. - The S&P 500 futures rose by over 0.1%, indicating a slight increase in US stock market expectations [1][7]. - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.27%, and other major indices also showing positive movement [1]. Group 2 - The Vietnamese stock index increased by over 1%, surpassing the 1600-point mark, reaching a new historical high [2]. - The US dollar index fell by more than 0.1%, while the Japanese yen and euro saw slight increases [2]. - Bitcoin surged past $122,000, marking a near one-month high, driven by institutional and corporate investments [4][6]. Group 3 - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 1 basis point [3]. - Crude oil prices fell by over 1.1% to below $63.20, while Brent crude dropped by over 0.9% to below $66 [5][13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $3360 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 1%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The silver price has been strong recently, hitting a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If market risk sentiment rebounds, it will be relatively beneficial for silver. The operation for both gold and silver is mainly to buy on dips for hedging. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 784.84 yuan/gram, a change of 0.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 788.50 yuan/gram and closed at 792.94 yuan/gram, up 0.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,301.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,393.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 961,563 lots, and the open interest was 476,010 lots. The night session opened at 9,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,453 yuan/kilogram, up 0.75% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year was 0.52%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract on July 22, 2025, the long positions changed by -1,071 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,243 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 290,023 lots, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, on the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -2,522 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,238,108 lots, a change of 40.57% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 954.80 tons the previous day, an increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, an increase of 152.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 22, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -5.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -853.24 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange the previous day was about 83.56, a change of -0.90% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.41, a change of -0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On July 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,546 kilograms, a change of 23.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537,430 kilograms, a change of 78.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,208 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 26,070 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price was 9184 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.52% and a trading volume of 735,125 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price was quoted at 9146 yuan per kilogram, showing a discount of 79 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures main price [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations related to drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs if deemed a national security threat [1] Group 2 - Guotou Futures reported that precious metals experienced volatility due to the announcement of high U.S. tariff rates, with the EU preparing to impose additional tariffs on $72 billion worth of U.S. imports if trade negotiations fail [2] - The market remains uncertain, and risk sentiment may fluctuate, leading to continued volatility in precious metals [2] - Attention is on the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which could impact market movements [2]

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 9207 yuan/kg on July 14, with a daily increase of 2.11% and a trading volume of 1,093,003 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 9168 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 39 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, escalating trade tensions [1][2] Group 2 - Trump demanded that the EU eliminate tariffs to reduce the significant trade deficit, emphasizing the need for open market access [2] - The response from the EU and Mexico indicated that the tariffs are unfair and destructive, with commitments to continue negotiations for a broader trade agreement [1][2] - According to Guotou Futures, precious metals, including silver, are expected to remain volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policies and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of gold prices, which have fallen below the 3300 mark, and explores the implications of trade tensions on market risk sentiment [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have dropped below the significant threshold of 3300, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - The article suggests that renewed trade tensions may be influencing risk sentiment among investors, potentially leading to increased volatility in the gold market [1] - The analysis includes insights on how trend traders might position themselves in response to these market changes [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Post - holiday, the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries remains weak, and some manufacturers continue to consume inventory. With the current off - season, lead prices may stay relatively weak. However, due to the improved market sentiment from the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, lead prices may be relatively resistant to decline under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector. The recommended operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $4.69 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,995 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 42,622 lots, an increase of 13,667 lots. The holding volume was 33,309 lots, a decrease of 145 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,800 - 17,015 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close. After the basis widened, some Henan suppliers' discount to the SHFE lead 2506 contract slightly expanded to 180 - 160 yuan/ton. Hunan smelters maintained a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price, and traders' discount was about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions improved compared to last Friday, with downstream buyers mainly for rigid demand and some enterprises restocking slightly [2] Inventory - On May 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week. As of May 12, the LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [2]