格隆汇1月7日｜Monex Europe分析师在报告中指出，由于周三缺乏英国本土经济数据，英镑走势将主要 受风险情绪和美元表现的引导，市场焦点已转向美国经济数据。他们表示，更大的驱动因素将来自美 国，包括ADP私营部门就业数据，随后是职位空缺和劳动力流动调查以及ISM服务业报告。分析师认 为，如果美国数据强于预期，英镑兑美元可能会跌破1.34关口。 ...

与此同时，全球增长预期可能削弱美元吸引力。交易者短期应密切关注美元指数的关键点位，并留意可能促使美 元走低的因素。 来源：滚动播报 汇通财经APP讯——美元在2026年初开局谨慎，第一季度将检验货币政策分歧、劳动力市场信号及风险情绪的影 响。周一（1月5日）亚欧时段，美元指数小幅走高，涨幅约0.3%，交投于98.70附近。因委内瑞拉总统被捕，强化 了美元作为避险资产的资金流入。从日线和周线时间框架看，除非美元指数能收复100关口附近的关键阻力位，否 则下行修正结构依然显著。 市场普遍预期美联储将释放宽松信号，通过一至两次降息来应对通胀趋缓及就业数据疲软，这将削弱美元的收益 率优势。 1、美联储政策与利率 市场预计美联储将在2026年初实施25-50个基点的降息。 2026年第一季度美元走势的潜在驱动因素 降息将削弱美元相对于其他主要货币的实际收益率优势。 影响：美联储鸽派立场通常会削弱美元，并支撑欧元、英镑和澳元等货币。 2、劳动力市场数据 2026年初的非农就业报告、失业率和薪资增长数据将影响市场对美联储宽松政策的预期。 若劳动力数据强于预期，可能短暂支撑美元；疲软数据则会加速其下跌。 影响：对美国就业数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in gold prices reflects market repricing of interest rate environment and risk sentiment [1][3] - Current increase in gold prices is driven by multiple expectations rather than a single factor [1][3] Macroeconomic Factors - The core impact of interest rate cut expectations is the change in holding costs [1][3] - As interest rate cut expectations strengthen, funds are more likely to flow into inflation-resistant and value-preserving assets [1][3] - Periodic safety events amplify market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets, providing additional support for gold prices [1][3] Short-term Influences - Short-term disturbances exist, with some officials signaling tighter policies, leading to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1][3] - These signals reflect policy divergence rather than a trend reversal, with the market expected to reassess based on employment and inflation data [1][3] Data Considerations - Upcoming employment report is a key variable influencing short-term trends [4] - A slowdown in the labor market could further solidify easing expectations; conversely, strong data may trigger a technical pullback in gold prices, but not necessarily alter the mid-term structure [4] Technical Structure - Gold prices are currently in a relatively favorable position, remaining above key moving averages with strong momentum indicators, indicating that the bullish trend is not broken [4] - If the key resistance zone is effectively breached, sentiment and funds may resonate, driving prices further upward [4] Long-term Outlook - In the context of interest rate cycles, risk preferences, and technical patterns, gold retains medium to long-term investment appeal [2][4] - Short-term fluctuations are seen as rhythm adjustments, with a focus on the overall trend rather than individual events causing emotional swings [2][4]

U.S. stock futures advanced on Tuesday following a selloff in the previous session, giving hope to investors that December—historically a strong month for markets—can indeed get off to a good start.Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50 points, or 0.1%, after the index tumbled 427 points on Monday to finish at 47,289. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% with contracts tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.4%.Stocks dropped on Monday as risk sentiment weakened, characterized by a deep selloff in Bitcoin ...

Core Insights - BTC remains stable in the $80,000 range, with improved risk sentiment pushing the probability of a rate cut in December to 85% [1] - Inflation remains high and labor data is weakening, with upcoming unemployment claims and ADP data set to further test macro expectations [1] - Crypto fund flows are weak, with ETFs continuing to see net outflows, and most products below $1 million NAV [1] - Year-end BTC faces significant downward hedging pressure, with supply-side factors potentially suppressing price increases towards $90,000, while the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a critical support zone [1]

Market Overview - On November 17, spot gold initially surged above the $4100 mark, reaching a high of $4106.57 per ounce before retreating to below $4100, with a low of $4048 per ounce, maintaining a defensive stance for the third consecutive day [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike diminished after influential FOMC members expressed skepticism about lowering borrowing costs, which provided some support for the US dollar, acting as a headwind for non-yielding gold [1] - Concerns over the longest government shutdown in US history potentially weakening economic momentum opened the door for further easing policies from the US central bank, stabilizing gold above the one-week low of approximately $4,032 [1] Technical Analysis - The weekly gold chart shows a long upper shadow small bullish candle, with the 5-week moving average turning downward, indicating a potential test of the 10-week moving average support in the short term [2] - The daily chart indicates a significant downward movement last Friday, leading to a contraction in the Bollinger Bands, with prices falling below the 5-day moving average, establishing a basis for potential further declines this week [2] - Key resistance levels to watch this week are around the 5-day moving average at $4130-$4135; if gold remains below this level, larger declines are likely [2] Short-term Outlook - The 4-hour chart indicates a slow upward movement followed by a rapid decline, confirming that the previous rise was not strong but rather a secondary peak [4] - The adjustment wave is expected to start from the high of $4245, with a potential target of breaking the low of $3887, suggesting that existing short positions should be maintained [4] - For the beginning of the week, a test of resistance around $4105-$4110 is anticipated, with aggressive traders advised to consider short positions at $4130, targeting $4080-$4030 [4]

Investment Logic - The recent decline in international gold prices follows a strong upward trend, influenced by a stronger US dollar, high interest rates, and a recovery in global risk appetite [2][5] - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is crucial; a strong dollar increases the cost of purchasing gold for non-dollar investors, leading to decreased demand [3][4] - High interest rates have made holding gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold rises [4][5] - The previous surge in gold prices was driven by heightened geopolitical and financial risks, but this "safe-haven" demand is now diminishing as global stock indices rise and recession fears recede [5] Consumption Logic - Domestic gold jewelry prices are influenced by international gold prices but often show a lag due to factors like pricing strategies, processing upgrades, and brand premiums [6][7] - Brand premiums in the domestic market can lead to retail prices being significantly higher than the raw material costs, with some brands showing a premium of 20%-25% over the gold material price [7] - The demand for gold jewelry is evolving, with younger consumers redefining gold as an investment product rather than just a traditional wedding item, leading to increased spending on gold jewelry [8][9] Future Outlook - Future gold price movements will be shaped by macroeconomic policies and changes in consumer behavior, with potential for price increases if central banks adopt more accommodative stances [10][11] - The domestic gold jewelry market is expected to continue evolving, with trends towards branding, design, and smaller weights, driven by changing consumer preferences [10][11] - Understanding the dual logic of gold as both an investment and a consumer product will be crucial for investors, consumers, and brands in navigating the market [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the U.S. September CPI year - on - year growth rate was lower than expected, and China - U.S. economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address respective concerns. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In terms of U.S. dollar - denominated assets, commodities > stocks > bonds. In China, stocks and commodities closed higher, and the bond market was weakly volatile. Overall, stocks > commodities > bonds. The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the market sentiment was relatively stable, and major global stock markets generally closed higher. U.S. stocks had the highest gains, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index had a significant weekly decline [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 1.87% in a week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%. In the American market, the MSCI USA rose 1.93%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.92%. In other markets, the Istanbul ISE100 rose 7.18% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the lower - than - expected September inflation data supported the Fed to further cut interest rates. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2BP weekly, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained flat at 4.02%. The bond market weakened weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - The global bond index fell 0.19% in a week, the global government bond index fell 0.37%, the global credit bond index rose 0.05%, and the global high - yield bond index rose 0.36% [13]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, recent U.S. data showed economic resilience, and the U.S. dollar index closed higher weekly. Major non - U.S. currencies had mixed performances against the U.S. dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.39% weekly [14]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - The U.S. government announced sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, causing international oil prices to soar weekly. The market's risk - aversion sentiment cooled recently, and precious metal prices declined weekly. Major industrial and agricultural products prices generally rose [17]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose 3.28%, and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index rose 3.65%. Brent crude oil rose 5.84%, and WTI crude oil rose 7.32%. The S&P Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Total Return Index fell 1.83% [17][19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Policy boosted market confidence, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the highest gains. In terms of sectors, communications, electronics, etc. had high gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 198.1 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable. The bond market was weakly volatile weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index fell 0.07% in a week, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Return Index rose 0.14%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Return Index fell 0.13%, and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Return Index rose 0.12% [24]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market closed higher weekly. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, and precious metals performed poorly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - The impact of previous risk events on the market has weakened, and risk sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the overall performance of the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [27].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on August 15 in Alaska is expected to influence market sentiment positively, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices [1][6]. - The S&P 500 futures rose by over 0.1%, indicating a slight increase in US stock market expectations [1][7]. - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.27%, and other major indices also showing positive movement [1]. Group 2 - The Vietnamese stock index increased by over 1%, surpassing the 1600-point mark, reaching a new historical high [2]. - The US dollar index fell by more than 0.1%, while the Japanese yen and euro saw slight increases [2]. - Bitcoin surged past $122,000, marking a near one-month high, driven by institutional and corporate investments [4][6]. Group 3 - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 1 basis point [3]. - Crude oil prices fell by over 1.1% to below $63.20, while Brent crude dropped by over 0.9% to below $66 [5][13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $3360 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 1%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [6].