Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market may experience an inertial decline in the short - term, and long - term bonds are likely to see larger drops due to high trading congestion. Traders should not short, but can bet on oversold rebounds, and those holding long positions should set stop - losses [1][3]. 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, bond futures prices declined across the board. The yields of spot bonds rose, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds continued to rise after the futures market closed. The open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan, but the liquidity was loose, with DR001 at 1.317% [1]. 3.2.日内消息 - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 150 basis points or more, starting with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. - The weighted winning bid yields of the 3 - year and 20 - year national bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.42% and 2.0596% respectively [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - The bond market did not react to the previous day's social financing data. In the morning, it was suppressed by the A - share market breaking through 3,700 points. Although the stock market declined in the afternoon, the bond market still had weak rebound momentum. The A - share market may start to adjust, but whether the bond market can benefit depends on the adjustment range and time [3]. 3.4.数据一览 - **Futures Prices and Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.35, down 0.02 from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 105.685, down 0.065; T2509 closed at 108.345, down 0.115; TL2509 closed at 117.82, down 0.49 [4]. - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 895 to 101,985; TF contract positions decreased by 1,970 to 175,039; T contract positions decreased by 5,864 to 231,061; TL contract positions decreased by 3,204 to 149,892 [4]. - **Basis and Trading Volume**: The basis and trading volume of each contract also showed corresponding changes. For example, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0201 to 0.0195, and the trading volume increased by 113 to 39,613 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: DR001 was 1.3164%, up 0.0002 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.4522%, up 0.0078; DR014 was 1.4816%, up 0.0128 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The silver price has been strong recently, hitting a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If market risk sentiment rebounds, it will be relatively beneficial for silver. The operation for both gold and silver is mainly to buy on dips for hedging. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 784.84 yuan/gram, a change of 0.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 788.50 yuan/gram and closed at 792.94 yuan/gram, up 0.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,301.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,393.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 961,563 lots, and the open interest was 476,010 lots. The night session opened at 9,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,453 yuan/kilogram, up 0.75% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year was 0.52%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract on July 22, 2025, the long positions changed by -1,071 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,243 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 290,023 lots, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, on the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -2,522 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,238,108 lots, a change of 40.57% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 954.80 tons the previous day, an increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, an increase of 152.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 22, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -5.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -853.24 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange the previous day was about 83.56, a change of -0.90% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.41, a change of -0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On July 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,546 kilograms, a change of 23.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537,430 kilograms, a change of 78.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,208 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 26,070 kilograms [7]

特朗普还表示，对欧盟和墨西哥30%的关税将独立于所有行业关税。这意味着美国对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%的关税、对汽车进口征收25%的关税的做法将继续保留。 欧盟和墨西哥在回应中称关税是不公平和具有破坏性的，同时承诺在最后期限前继续与美国谈判，以达 成更广泛的贸易协议。 欧盟一直希望与美国达成一项全面贸易协议。特朗普在致欧盟的信函中要求欧洲放弃关税。他写 道："欧盟对美国完全开放市场准入，并且不对我们征收关税，以减少巨额贸易逆差。" 【白银期货最新行情】 7月14日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 9207 2.11% 1093003 448095 数据显示，7月14日上海白银现货价格报价9168元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（9207元/千克）贴水39 元/千克。 美国总统特朗普上周六(7月12日)威胁从8月1日起对从墨西哥和欧盟进口的商品征收30%的关税，此前他 与这两个美国最大的贸易伙伴进行了数周谈判，但未能达成一项全面的贸易协议。贸易战升级激怒了美 国盟友，也让投资者感到不安。 特朗普周六在Truth Social上公布分别发给欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula vo ...

黄金失守3300大关！贸易再次提振风险情绪？后市趋势交易者如何布局？TTPS交易学长正在分析中， 立即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-13 节后铅蓄电池终端消费持续疲软，部分生产企业延续库存消耗模式，原料采购维持低位，叠加目前为消费淡季， 因此铅价或维持相对偏弱格局。但由于目前市场风险情绪因中美贸易谈判有明显进展，市场情绪好转，因此也不 排除铅价会在整体有色板块的带动下维持相对抗跌格局。操作上暂时以高抛低吸对待。 风险 废旧电瓶持续吃紧 风险情绪滋生带动有色板块整体走强 风险情绪回升下铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-12，LME铅现货升水为4.69美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至16750元 /吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化150元/ 吨至16800元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化225元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化225元/吨至16875元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10275元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the recent trade agreement between the US and UK, which has led to increased risk sentiment and a decline in bullish sentiment for spot gold [1] - Trump has encouraged buying stocks, resulting in a bullish trend for US stock indices, raising questions about future market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 73% compared to 27% bearish [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 69% against 31% bearish [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bearish sentiment at 84% compared to 16% bullish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 42% against 58% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 70% compared to 30% bearish [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a significant bearish sentiment at 83% against 17% bullish [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair shows a slight bullish sentiment of 52% against 48% bearish [3] - The Euro/GBP pair has a strong bearish sentiment at 73% compared to 27% bullish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 82% against 18% bullish [3] - The Euro/AUD pair shows a bearish sentiment of 67% compared to 33% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 70% against 30% bearish [3] - The GBP/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 69% compared to 31% bullish [3] - The USD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 69% against 31% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% compared to 40% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bearish sentiment at 88% against 12% bullish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 76% against 24% bearish [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 59% compared to 41% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair indicates a bearish sentiment of 57% against 43% bullish [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 63% against 37% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a strong bearish sentiment at 64% compared to 36% bullish [4] - The USD/CNH pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 75% against 25% bearish [4]