Core Viewpoint - The recent lifting of restrictions on Siemens' sale of chip design software to China highlights the fragility of the global semiconductor supply chain and opens a strategic window for Chinese chip companies [1][6]. Event Recap: From Ban to Lifting - On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a ban on three major EDA companies, including Siemens, Cadence, and Synopsys, which collectively hold 74% of the global EDA market share, due to escalating tensions over rare earth trade [5]. - A turning point occurred during talks in London in June, where the U.S. agreed to lift restrictions on chip design software in exchange for China accelerating rare earth export approvals [6]. Strategic Decoding: The 90-Day Window - The policy relaxation is framed as a "technical assessment period," indicating a tactical concession by the U.S. under pressure from rare earth supply issues [10]. - The 90-day window is seen as a critical period for urgent procurement, with 67% of IC design companies planning to maintain a dual-track strategy of using both international EDA tools and domestic alternatives [10]. - Domestic EDA companies like Geke Electronics and Huada Jiutian have some replacement capabilities, but there remains a generational gap in high-end chip design processes compared to international giants [10]. Historical Reflection: Survival Rules for Chinese Enterprises - Huawei's significant R&D investment post-entity list inclusion serves as a model for resilience, with over 400 billion yuan invested over five years, leading to a transformation of its semiconductor arm [11]. - Longsys has successfully reduced its reliance on U.S. technology in its NAND flash production line to below 15% by diversifying its supply chain [11]. Action Guidelines for the Window Period - Chip companies are advised to establish structured response strategies, prioritizing the procurement of essential high-end tools while planning for a phased approach to technology transition [12]. - A three-stage plan is recommended: 90 days for urgent procurement, 180 days for technology transition, and 365 days for self-replacement [12]. - Most companies prefer a dual-track strategy, balancing short-term survival with long-term development, as full EDA autonomy is projected to take 3-5 years [12]. Long-Term Considerations: Reflections Post-Lifting - The limitations of the current lifting of restrictions are notable, as the U.S. retains the right to adjust policies, and the positions of Cadence and Synopsys remain unclear [13]. - The experience underscores the need for the Chinese semiconductor industry to build a resilient innovation system, leveraging the current window of opportunity while maintaining a commitment to independent R&D [13].

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】自今年1月20日不按常理出牌的特朗普重返白宫以来，其极具争议性的政策举 措在国际社会引发强烈震荡。在"美国优先"理念下，这位美国总统退出多个国际组织和多边机制，发起 无差别关税战，让国际秩序陷入撕裂状态。 《亚洲时报》7月1日以"在特朗普的游戏中，中美是赢家，欧洲则为之买单"为题发表评论文章，称在特 朗普第二任期开局，一种模式已然显现：美国设定议程，中国精准应对，而欧洲则选择屈服。其结果是 一种两极秩序的形成，欧洲沦为出资者和啦啦队的角色。 文章作者、专注于欧亚关系研究的驻香港地缘政治分析师塞瓦斯蒂安·孔廷·特里略-菲格罗亚（Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa）表示，在短短五个月内，特朗普就获得了前几任总统仅停留在理论层面的国防 开支承诺。当中国的稀土出口管制措施迫使华盛顿迅速调整策略时，欧洲却只能发出空洞的哀叹。这种 不对称揭示了一切：一个阵营运用杠杆，另一个以决心回应，而第三个则负责开支票。 "特朗普甚至无需开口要求，他们就主动奉上了投降书。"文章写道，当欧洲分析人士沉迷于讨论特朗普 的民粹主义及其对民主的威胁时，他们忽略了关键问题——他正在精准实现自 ...