Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing struggle over rare earth resources, emphasizing how the U.S. is circumventing China's export controls through third-party countries, which poses significant implications for both nations' military and industrial capabilities [1][19]. Group 1: Smuggling and Trade Dynamics - Between December 2024 and April 2025, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of Chinese antimony oxide via Thailand and Mexico, nearly matching the total imports from these countries over the past three years [3]. - Thailand has only one antimony smelting plant, and Mexico's relevant factory resumed operations only in April 2025, indicating that these countries are acting as intermediaries for U.S. imports [4]. - In Nuevo León, Mexico, 37 offshore Chinese trading companies emerged, falsely labeling Chinese antimony as "made in Mexico" to exploit low tariff provisions under the North American Free Trade Agreement [4]. Group 2: Price Surge and Profitability - The international prices for gallium surged to over $3,000 per kilogram, a 200% increase compared to pre-ban levels, while germanium prices rose from 9,900 yuan to 18,700 yuan, an 88% increase [6]. - Even after accounting for high transportation costs, the profit from smuggling rare earths can reach 20 times that of normal trade [6]. Group 3: China's Response and Regulatory Measures - In response to the resource loss crisis, China initiated a special operation in May 2025 targeting smuggling and misreporting practices [8]. - The revised Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, 2025, imposes a minimum 10-year prison sentence for rare earth smuggling and establishes a "lifetime ban" blacklist for offenders [10]. - A blockchain-based "rare earth traceability electronic ID system" was launched in June 2025 to assign unique digital identities to each batch of rare earths [10]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Military and Industry - Following China's crackdown on smuggling, the F-35 fighter jet production was reduced by 30% due to a shortage of dysprosium, leading to an 8% drop in profit margins for Lockheed Martin's defense sector [12]. - Raytheon Technologies delayed the mass production of the "Standard-6" missile, with some orders redirected to Europe facing technical barriers [13]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies revealed that the U.S. relies on imports for 41 out of 50 critical minerals, with China being the largest supplier for 29 of them [15]. - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earths is underscored by the fact that the M855 rifle cartridge contains 0.5 grams of antimony, and the F-35 radar depends on gallium nitride technology, with China controlling 94% of global gallium supply [15][17]. - The U.S. State Department established a "Critical Minerals Alliance" in 2024, attempting to create a supply chain independent of China, but faces challenges due to China's dominance in rare earth processing technology [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent lifting of restrictions on Siemens' sale of chip design software to China highlights the fragility of the global semiconductor supply chain and opens a strategic window for Chinese chip companies [1][6]. Event Recap: From Ban to Lifting - On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a ban on three major EDA companies, including Siemens, Cadence, and Synopsys, which collectively hold 74% of the global EDA market share, due to escalating tensions over rare earth trade [5]. - A turning point occurred during talks in London in June, where the U.S. agreed to lift restrictions on chip design software in exchange for China accelerating rare earth export approvals [6]. Strategic Decoding: The 90-Day Window - The policy relaxation is framed as a "technical assessment period," indicating a tactical concession by the U.S. under pressure from rare earth supply issues [10]. - The 90-day window is seen as a critical period for urgent procurement, with 67% of IC design companies planning to maintain a dual-track strategy of using both international EDA tools and domestic alternatives [10]. - Domestic EDA companies like Geke Electronics and Huada Jiutian have some replacement capabilities, but there remains a generational gap in high-end chip design processes compared to international giants [10]. Historical Reflection: Survival Rules for Chinese Enterprises - Huawei's significant R&D investment post-entity list inclusion serves as a model for resilience, with over 400 billion yuan invested over five years, leading to a transformation of its semiconductor arm [11]. - Longsys has successfully reduced its reliance on U.S. technology in its NAND flash production line to below 15% by diversifying its supply chain [11]. Action Guidelines for the Window Period - Chip companies are advised to establish structured response strategies, prioritizing the procurement of essential high-end tools while planning for a phased approach to technology transition [12]. - A three-stage plan is recommended: 90 days for urgent procurement, 180 days for technology transition, and 365 days for self-replacement [12]. - Most companies prefer a dual-track strategy, balancing short-term survival with long-term development, as full EDA autonomy is projected to take 3-5 years [12]. Long-Term Considerations: Reflections Post-Lifting - The limitations of the current lifting of restrictions are notable, as the U.S. retains the right to adjust policies, and the positions of Cadence and Synopsys remain unclear [13]. - The experience underscores the need for the Chinese semiconductor industry to build a resilient innovation system, leveraging the current window of opportunity while maintaining a commitment to independent R&D [13].

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】自今年1月20日不按常理出牌的特朗普重返白宫以来，其极具争议性的政策举 措在国际社会引发强烈震荡。在"美国优先"理念下，这位美国总统退出多个国际组织和多边机制，发起 无差别关税战，让国际秩序陷入撕裂状态。 《亚洲时报》7月1日以"在特朗普的游戏中，中美是赢家，欧洲则为之买单"为题发表评论文章，称在特 朗普第二任期开局，一种模式已然显现：美国设定议程，中国精准应对，而欧洲则选择屈服。其结果是 一种两极秩序的形成，欧洲沦为出资者和啦啦队的角色。 文章作者、专注于欧亚关系研究的驻香港地缘政治分析师塞瓦斯蒂安·孔廷·特里略-菲格罗亚（Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa）表示，在短短五个月内，特朗普就获得了前几任总统仅停留在理论层面的国防 开支承诺。当中国的稀土出口管制措施迫使华盛顿迅速调整策略时，欧洲却只能发出空洞的哀叹。这种 不对称揭示了一切：一个阵营运用杠杆，另一个以决心回应，而第三个则负责开支票。 "特朗普甚至无需开口要求，他们就主动奉上了投降书。"文章写道，当欧洲分析人士沉迷于讨论特朗普 的民粹主义及其对民主的威胁时，他们忽略了关键问题——他正在精准实现自 ...