1月5日（周一），截至2026年1月5日收盘，LME三个月期铜上涨522美元或4.19%，收报每吨12,991.5美元。盘中一度触及13,045美元，刷新12月29日创下的 12,960美元的纪录高位。 这一创纪录的上涨并非孤立事件，而是2025年铜价飙升的延续。过去一年，铜价累计上涨超过43%，为2009年以来最佳年度表现，并使铜成为LME表现最佳 的工业金属。新年伊始的强劲突破彻底打破了市场对于价格回调的预期。 **完美风暴驱动历史性价格走势** 这次爆炸性的上涨受一场"完美风暴"驱动，核心是"供应脆弱"与"需求僵化"之间的激烈冲突。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 面对历史高位的价格，市场分析师出现明显分歧。多头认为高价合理且必要。SP Angel分析师John Meyer指出，当前价位对于激励未来新矿投资至关重要。 他表示："下一代新的铜矿开发的盈亏平衡价格超过每吨13,000美元。"花旗预计2026年精炼铜短缺30.8万吨，表明基本面继续提供支持。 空头则警告称，市场可能已经存在严重的投机性泡沫。麦格理（Macquarie）分析师指出，交易所之外存在大量的被隐藏起来的库存，单美国这一个国家就 可能囤积 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing the strongest annual increase since 1979, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, and strong safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% in gold futures [1] - The recent price surge indicates that any price corrections in the coming weeks or months are likely to be shallow adjustments, as new buying interest emerges with each decline, reflecting macroeconomic fundamentals rather than mere speculative bubbles [1] - Silver has shown an even stronger performance, breaking through $44 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, supported by structural demand from the photovoltaic industry and electrification processes, highlighting silver's dual identity as both a currency and an industrial metal [1] Group 2 - On Wednesday, gold futures fell from the previous day's historical high, with the main contract for September delivery settling at $3,732.10 per ounce, marking the largest single-day dollar and percentage decline since August 11 [2] - September silver futures also declined by 0.9% to $43.777 per ounce, with both gold and silver settlement prices still ranking as the third highest in history [2] - Investors are awaiting the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims and the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, for new clues on monetary policy direction [1]