投资成本效益再平衡

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胡晓炼:国际货币体系改变从三个方向推进 加密数字货币将被重视
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-05-18 08:02
Group 1 - The forum highlighted the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies, aiming to reduce trade deficits and increase U.S. fiscal revenue, while potentially restructuring the international trade and investment system with a more prominent U.S. role [1] - The rebalancing of trade and investment costs is creating more opportunities for developing countries in the Global South, as companies face greater uncertainty and seek cost-effective locations for operations [2] - Major economies are undergoing profound internal economic adjustments due to global trade rebalancing, with a focus on domestic economic structure to effectively address trade imbalances [2] Group 2 - The global monetary system is expected to evolve towards a more diverse and inclusive framework, with potential changes driven by the inclusion of more currencies and increased attention to digital currencies [3] - China's cross-border investments have significantly increased, with over $3 trillion in direct investment stock from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong participation in international markets and supply chains [4] - Chinese companies are increasingly establishing industrial parks abroad, creating industrial clusters that contribute to local economic development and infrastructure improvements [5]
2025五道口金融论坛|胡晓炼:国际货币体系改变,将更重视加密数字货币
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-17 23:06
Group 1 - The future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with significant adjustments occurring in the current international trade system, allowing Chinese enterprises to seize opportunities despite changes [1][3] - The rebalancing of trade and investment costs now includes factors such as innovation, institutional frameworks, green development, geopolitical considerations, and ideology, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while still focusing on maximizing efficiency and effectiveness [3] - Historical experience suggests that a country can only effectively resolve trade imbalances when its internal economic structure is more balanced [3] Group 2 - The rebalancing of currencies will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, despite the current dominance of the US dollar facing challenges such as currency weaponization and the Triffin dilemma [3][4] - The emergence of more currencies in international trade will not only serve trade and investment but also contribute to financial stability, with increased attention on the role of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment [4] - Chinese enterprises have shown resilience in international markets, transitioning from labor-intensive to technology-driven investments, and are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth beyond just employment and tax revenue [4]
进出口银行原董事长胡晓炼:我国跨境投资逆势增长,民企是主力军
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 13:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]