二是石油和美元挂钩，进入"石油美元"时期。石油是国际上重要的战略性物资，是全球工业的血液，是 重要的国际大宗商品，石油以美元计价和结算，开启了"石油美元"时代。上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系 解体、美元和黄金脱钩之后，美国很快与沙特签订协议，石油交易用美元定价结算，由此形成"石油美 元"体系，随后石油输出国组织（OPEC）其他国家纷纷加入。中东重要产油国通过输出石油获得大量美 元，拥有巨额财富，"石油美元"又回流美国，投资美国金融市场，进一步强化了美元的国际货币地位， 美元成为主要国际大宗商品的计价和结算货币。同样，美元汇率也是影响石油价格的重要因素，原油价 格和美元指数往往成反向变化。 三是金融衍生品和美元挂钩。随着国际金融市场和金融创新日益发展，外汇远期、期货、期权等金融衍 生品发展迅速。其中，以美元计价的相关金融衍生品交易量在全球排名靠前，占据主导地位。国际大宗 商品的衍生品以及跨境投融资相关的金融衍生品等，也选择以美元计价。全球金融衍生品的交易量是现 货交易的数倍乃至数十倍，美元再次成为其中的主要计价和结算货币。美元成为国际金融市场主要交易 货币，在全球外汇交易中占比处于较高水平。 四是当前阶段，美元寻 ...

文/ 国家外汇管理局外汇研究中心研究二部处长 刘旭 ，国家外汇管理局外汇研 究中心研究二部研究员 兰盈 当前美国国债（以下简称"美债"）困境不断加剧并累及全球，但国际社会 对此几乎束手无策。究其原因，主要是以美元为中心的一元国际货币体系 使得美债扩张不受约束，美国也不承担相应国际责任。国际货币体系多元 化可能是解决此问题的有效路径。应积极推动全球金融治理改革，共同构 建更加稳定、公平的国际金融新秩序。 美债是形成美元主导国际货币体系的重要支撑 1913年美联储成立以来，美债逐步发展成为重要的美元资产，推动美元国际化进程。自1913年美国国会通过《联邦储备法案》成立美联储以来，美债发行 与流通机制逐步完善，市场日趋成熟，美债逐步成为重要的美元资产。1917年美国加入一战后，为满足巨额军费融资需求，美联储先后出台允许国债抵押 再贴现、鼓励投资者贷款购债等一系列举措，美债流动性大幅提升，其金融资产属性也进一步强化。 1919年，美国取消银行设立海外分支机构及开展国际银行业务限制，推动美债进入国际金融市场流通。在货币网络递增效应作用下，美债逐步构建国际交 易与信用网络。由此，美元国际化进程加速，改变了自1870年以来 ...

在美国海外"债主"里，中国排第三，可跟日本、英国等国家同期增加美债持有量不同，中国逆势减少持 有，尤为引人注目。 从美国公布的国际资本流动报告（TIC）来看，到2025年10月，海外投资者整体持有的美债规模连续第 二个月下降，不过跟去年同期比还是增长了6.3%。 中国这一年累计减持美债的幅度超过了9%，持有规模跌破了7000亿美元大关。反观日本和英国，同期 分别增持了107亿和132亿美元，日本以1.2万亿美元的持有量稳坐第一，英国则超过了中国，成了第二 大持有国。 第二，中美关系是全球最重要的双边关系之一，可这几年不确定性增加了很多。 特朗普政府搞战略收缩，其实是在攒劲儿，准备压制中国。在这种背景下，美债很可能成为中美博弈的 一颗重要棋子。美国政府好几次说，想通过美债问题给中国施压，甚至把美债当成制裁中国的手段。 中国减持美债，既减少了在美国资产的风险，又增强了跟美国斗争时的主动性和灵活性。减持美债也能 看成是中国对美国经济政策的一种回应，表明中国不会无限制地满足美国的经济要求，而是在维护自身 利益的同时，寻求更平等、互利的经济合作关系。 第三，中国选择小批量、多批次地减持美债，这样既避免了美元崩盘对中国贸 ...

" TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融购评论 与此同时，美国财政赤字持续扩大，危机凸显。截至2025年10月21日，美国联邦债务已达38万亿美元，距离2025年8月突破37万亿美元仅间隔两个多月， 创历史最快万亿级增速。2024财年美国联邦债务利息支出已超1万亿美元，占当年GDP的3.6%，成为仅次于社会保障的第二大财政支出。此外，在美国反 复将美元当成金融制裁"武器"后，美元信用危机日益加深，2025年2月以来，美元、美股、美债"三杀现象"多次出现，揭示了美元和美债存在的内在问 题。 美元与美债存在相互支撑关系。美元维持霸权地位，美债就能持续受到各国和地区央行及金融市场的追捧；美债作为核心安全资产促成美元国际循环，是 维系美元霸权体系的关键制度安排。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元与石油挂钩，既巩固了美元的国际货币地位，也为美债扩张埋下伏笔。 前瞻美债与美元 文 / 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 当前，国际竞争特别是大国竞争极为激烈。美国作为全球第一大经济体，正竭尽全力维持其全球霸权地位，特别是维护美元的世界主要储备货币地位和美 国资本市场的特殊影响力。与此同时，美国经济结构中的一些问题逐渐 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇国际评论，就来聊聊俄罗斯莫斯科首发人民币主权债引发西方热议，全球 多国扎堆拥抱人民币，这到底是市场用脚投票的理性选择，还是西方炒作的"货币对抗"？ 这股"人民币热"的背后，既非中国单方面推动的"货币扩张"，也不是针对任何货币的对抗行动，而是全 球经济主体基于现实需求做出的理性抉择，是国际货币体系多元化演进的必然结果。 人民币在国际市场的认可度，正通过一个个具体行动不断夯实。 俄罗斯在莫斯科首发人民币主权债，成为人民币国际化进程中的又一标志性事件，而这只是全球"人民 币热"的一个缩影。 12月，俄罗斯财政部宣布在莫斯科发行首批人民币计价主权债券，这一常规的国际融资行为，却被部分 西方舆论贴上"挑战美元体系""地缘政治对抗"的标签。 从英国、印尼到俄罗斯，从巴西、印度到东盟各国，越来越多国家主动选择人民币作为结算、储备和融 资货币。 截至2024年四季度，全球80多个国家和地区的央行已将人民币纳入外汇储备，总额达2470亿美元，IMF 数据显示其占比升至2.18%，较2016年加入SDR时提升1.1个百分点。 全球"人民币版图"持续扩容，多国用行动投下信任票 在东盟地区，中国与越南、马来 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is expected to significantly alter the international monetary system and global financial governance structure [1][10] - The Fed's recent interest rate cuts mark a pivotal change in its monetary policy cycle, responding to both domestic economic conditions and global economic slowdowns [2][3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex interplay of cyclical slowdown and structural weaknesses, leading to increased unemployment and a need for preemptive policy actions [3][4] Group 2 - The current inflation dynamics, while still above the Fed's target, show a declining trend, necessitating a balanced approach to monetary policy [4] - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decisions, but the institution maintains its independence in policy-making, opting for a cautious approach to rate cuts [5] - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. monetary policy adjustments will have significant spillover effects on other countries [6] Group 3 - The global financial system is entering a phase of profound transformation, with opportunities for restructuring policy coordination among major central banks [7] - Emerging markets may benefit from capital inflows as the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets diminishes, providing a window for structural reforms [8] - The sustainability of global debt levels is under scrutiny, particularly for emerging markets with significant foreign currency debt [9] Group 4 - The shift in U.S. monetary policy is likely to accelerate the diversification of the international monetary system, impacting financing costs and channels for emerging markets [10] - The Fed's actions are expected to reshape asset pricing mechanisms and market structures, influencing investor behavior and capital flows [12][14] - Commodity pricing mechanisms are undergoing changes, with precious metals benefiting from the Fed's rate cuts, while industrial commodities may see increased demand due to lower financing costs [13] Group 5 - The adjustment in global capital flows is evident, with a notable shift towards non-U.S. assets as the dollar's appeal wanes [14] - Investment strategies will need to adapt to the new monetary environment, with a focus on risk assessment and asset allocation [15] - China's monetary policy may gain more flexibility in response to the Fed's actions, allowing for more proactive economic support measures [16][17] Group 6 - The Fed's policy shift presents new opportunities for international financial cooperation and enhances China's role in global governance [19] - The internationalization of the renminbi may gain momentum in the new monetary landscape, promoting a more diversified and stable international monetary system [19]

Core Insights - A significant shift in the global financial landscape is occurring, with a particular country's currency rapidly reshaping the international trade settlement system [1] - The usage of the US dollar and euro in bilateral trade has dropped to a level described as "statistical error," while the domestic currency's settlement ratio has surged from below 3% to over 99% in the past decade [1][3] Group 1: Trade Settlement Changes - Currently, 99.1% of bilateral trade settlements are conducted using the two countries' currencies, with over one-third of foreign exchange reserves and 60% of the national welfare fund allocated to this particular currency [3] - The trading volume of this currency on the Moscow Exchange has increased 40 times, surpassing the trading scale of the US dollar, indicating a strong preference among the public for holding this currency over the domestic currency [3] Group 2: Drivers of Change - The catalyst for this financial transformation stems from external pressures, particularly after the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2022, which led to the exclusion of this country from international payment systems and the freezing of its assets [5] - The stability of this currency's exchange rate and its comprehensive industrial support have made it the preferred choice for transactions across a wide range of goods, effectively mitigating exchange rate fluctuation risks [5] Group 3: Broader Implications - Analysts suggest that this trend extends beyond bilateral trade, with multiple central banks increasing their holdings of this currency's assets and regional agreements for local currency settlements expanding [6] - The rise of this currency from a "marginal role" to a "core option" reflects the international community's urgent need for a diversified currency system and highlights the unique value of stable currencies in turbulent times [6]

Core Insights - China is exploring innovative financial strategies to manage its foreign exchange reserves amidst the rising risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities, potentially reshaping the global monetary landscape [1][4][10] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Global Implications - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion and continues to grow rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of the long-term value of dollar assets [4][10] - The uncertainty in the U.S. political environment often turns the debt issue into a political bargaining chip, leading global investors, especially large institutional ones, to reassess their asset allocation strategies [4][10] Group 2: China's Innovative Financial Strategies - China is enhancing its foreign exchange reserve management through a series of well-designed financial arrangements, moving beyond traditional asset management [4][8] - A notable example includes China's innovative cooperation with major energy-exporting countries, which not only involves traditional energy trade but also diversified financial arrangements [5][8] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining momentum, with its share in global payments expected to reach a new high in 2024, driven by China's increasing economic influence and financial market openness [7][12] - The establishment of a currency cooperation network between the People's Bank of China and multiple central banks supports the cross-border use of the Renminbi [7] Group 4: Debt Conversion Mechanisms - China has developed a multi-tiered debt conversion mechanism to optimize the structure of its foreign exchange reserves, allowing for the transformation of some dollar assets into forms that better meet the needs of various parties [8][10] Group 5: Evolving Global Financial Landscape - The traditional dollar-centric international monetary system is evolving towards a more diversified structure, with emerging market countries playing an increasingly significant role [10][12] - The next five years are anticipated to be crucial for the transformation of the international monetary system, with the Renminbi expected to play a more prominent role [12][14] Group 6: Trends in Global Monetary Systems - The current changes in the international financial sector indicate a profound trend towards a multi-currency system, with China contributing unique insights for global financial stability [13][14] - A diversified foundation is essential for true financial security, and China's active participation in international financial rule-making aims to foster a fairer and more inclusive global financial system [14]

Core Insights - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest in nearly 30 years, and has not exceeded 60% for eleven consecutive quarters [1][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) attributes this decline primarily to exchange rate fluctuations, stating that the actual drop in dollar share is only 0.13 percentage points when adjusted for these factors [3] - There is a significant shift in investment strategies, with central banks reducing their purchases of US long-term securities by 94% in the second quarter, and instead opting to buy US stocks [5][10] Investment Trends - The US stock market has rebounded by 11% in the second quarter, contributing an estimated $189.4 billion in valuation gains to global dollar reserves [5] - Central banks are increasingly favoring gold, with global official gold reserves surpassing US Treasury holdings for the first time, reaching $3.86 trillion, which accounts for 23.56% of total global reserves [13] - The demand for gold has hit record levels, with purchases exceeding the average of the past decade by 41% [13] Currency Dynamics - The share of "other currencies" in global reserves has increased by 1.42 percentage points since 2022, indicating a trend of countries bypassing the dollar in trade settlements [16][20] - The Chinese yuan has gained prominence, becoming the fourth largest payment currency globally, with over 80 countries including it in their foreign exchange reserves [20] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" is reshaping the global financial landscape, moving towards a more diversified currency system [21][23] Future Outlook - The shift from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency framework is expected to enhance flexibility and stability in the global economy [23] - The process of transitioning away from dollar reliance will be gradual, but the trend towards a diversified monetary system is becoming increasingly clear [23]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of global central banks' "de-dollarization" is leading to a structural change in the international monetary system, with an increasing share of gold in foreign exchange reserves over the past 15 years [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, providing strong structural support for gold prices. By the second quarter of 2025, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to drop to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995 [1][2]. - One-third of the 75 central banks managing $5 trillion in assets plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 1-2 years, marking a five-year high [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is not solely driven by market sentiment but is a result of long-term adjustments in monetary reserve structures by global central banks [2]. - The demand for gold from central banks has exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, providing a structural floor for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US's internal "de-globalization" trends are reshaping the pricing logic of gold, transitioning from market-driven pricing to a focus on national sovereign reserve currency pricing [3][4]. - The decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% since 2025, is correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the weakening dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies [4]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly accumulating gold, with North American and European markets leading in gold ETFs [4]. - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, is lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further driving investment into the gold market [4]. Group 5: Currency Reallocation - The rise of the renminbi as a potential asset class is highlighted, with 30% of global central banks planning to increase their allocation to renminbi assets, which may rise to 6% in foreign exchange reserves [6]. - The structural transformation of the renminbi's exchange rate is supported by improvements in China's manufacturing sector, particularly in high-value-added industries [6].