美著名经济学家萨克斯：未来国际货币体系将不以美元为核心 人民币国际化将在变革中起重要作用 智通财经7月25日电，美国知名经济学家、哥伦比亚大学可持续发展中心主任杰弗里·萨克斯近日接受专 访时指出，国际货币体系正逐步走向多元化，他预测十年之内美元影响力将大幅下降。他表示，人民币 国际化与数字货币崛起，将成为重塑全球金融格局的关键驱动力。 (中国日报) ...

Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]

Group 1 - The recent surge in US Treasury yields has raised concerns about investor sell-off risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios [1] - All three major international credit rating agencies have now downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, with Fitch and Standard & Poor's having made similar adjustments previously [1] - The global monetary system, while still centered around the US dollar, is facing challenges as the internationalization of currencies like the renminbi and euro progresses, indicating a shift towards a more diversified monetary system [1] Group 2 - The dominance of the US dollar has led to issues such as "weaponization" of currency and the Triffin dilemma, prompting a rebalancing of the international monetary system [2] - There is an increasing exploration of digital currencies for cross-border trade and investment services, which may enhance the role of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund [2] - Despite a decline in trust towards dollar assets, the dollar's position as a primary currency remains difficult to challenge, although a diversified and multipolar global monetary system is anticipated [2]

Group 1 - The international monetary system is expected to diversify, with currencies like the Renminbi and Euro gaining prominence as the credibility of the US dollar faces systemic challenges due to rising debt and fiscal deficits [2][3] - The need for global multilateralism is emphasized as a response to the current international order challenges, with the potential for crises to reshape the global system [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are anticipated to play more significant roles in the evolving international monetary landscape, with regional development banks also becoming increasingly important [3] Group 2 - China is adopting proactive fiscal policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a primary task [4][5] - The attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, supported by a robust economic foundation and a large pool of skilled labor, which enhances its appeal for foreign investment [4] - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to enhance their resilience against external shocks through technological innovation and diversification of markets, while also expanding their global footprint [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international trade and investment landscape will undergo changes due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, with three key areas of focus: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, internal economic structure adjustments in major economies, and currency rebalancing [1][2][4] Group 2 - Cost-effectiveness rebalancing in international trade and investment may increase opportunities for "global south" and emerging market countries, as traditional factors like labor and resources are now joined by innovation, institutional, and green development elements [1][2] - The difficulty of manufacturing returning to the U.S. is highlighted, as the U.S. lacks competitive strength in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading to a preference for trade and investment in countries with lower costs and tariffs [2] - Major economies will experience profound adjustments in their internal economic structures due to global trade rebalancing, with the U.S. trade deficit increasing over 50% from 2017 to 2024, while the EU's trade surplus has grown over 400% [2] Group 3 - Currency rebalancing is expected to lead to a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks and increased participation of emerging market currencies in trade and investment [2][4] - The importance of digital currencies is emphasized, particularly their potential role as public goods for international cross-border trade and investment [3] - The possibility of enhancing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function is also discussed, indicating a shift towards a more diverse and inclusive monetary system [4]

Core Insights - The most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, with the U.S. government implementing tariff policies aimed at reducing trade deficits, increasing fiscal revenue, and restructuring the international trade and investment system [3] Group 1: Cost-Benefit Rebalancing - The cost-benefit analysis in trade and investment is evolving, incorporating traditional factors like labor, land, and resources, as well as new elements such as innovation, institutional frameworks, and green development [3] - Geopolitical and ideological factors have also become critical considerations, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while they still pursue maximum efficiency and effectiveness [3] - This situation presents opportunities for global South and emerging market countries to attract more trade and investment [3] Group 2: Economic Structure Adjustment - The rebalancing of global trade will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, addressing the imbalances created by globalization, such as the significant trade deficit in the U.S. and trade surpluses in the EU and China [3] - Historical experience suggests that effective resolution of trade imbalances requires countries to promote internal economic adjustments, ensuring coordination among savings, consumption, imports, exports, and investments [3] Group 3: Currency Rebalancing - Currency rebalancing is expected to guide the world monetary system towards a more diverse and inclusive framework, as the dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges from currency weaponization and the "Triffin dilemma" [4] - The international monetary system may evolve in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies, increased exploration of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment, and enhanced functionality of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4] Group 4: China's Response - China remains confident in navigating the current complex landscape, with its foreign direct investment stock exceeding $3 trillion from 2014 to 2024, tripling over the past two decades [4] - Chinese enterprises are rapidly developing in the international investment arena, characterized by resilient private enterprises, leading technology firms, and the transfer of domestic industrial park experiences to foreign markets [4] - Chinese companies are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth in host countries while adapting to changes in the international trade and investment landscape [4]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as global economic fragmentation, monetary system reconstruction, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area strategy, and the AI revolution [1] - Keynote speakers included Nobel laureate Michael Spence and former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, addressing structural contradictions and policy dilemmas in the current global economy [3] - Tsinghua University emphasized its role in providing a "certainty anchor" for global economic development through high-quality growth and financial technology breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Michael Spence highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the global trade system, suggesting that a multilateral system is still possible despite current challenges [3] - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., attributing chronic trade deficits to domestic economic issues [4] - Experts at the forum noted a trend towards a diversified international monetary system, although the dominance of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting has established a new rapid financing tool under the Chiang Mai Initiative, allowing for contributions in currencies like the Renminbi, marking a significant step towards the internationalization of the Renminbi and diversification of the international monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Rapid Financing Tool - The introduction of a rapid financing tool using freely usable currencies like the Renminbi expands the resources available under the Chiang Mai Initiative, highlighting regional characteristics and indicating positive progress towards a diversified international monetary system [1]. - This tool aims to enhance the effectiveness of the Chiang Mai Initiative, providing crucial support for regional stability and development [1]. Group 2: Renminbi's Role - Analysts believe that this move will have profound implications for the internationalization of the Renminbi, as its inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights basket was significantly influenced by its status as a freely usable currency [1][2]. - The Renminbi's role as a regional safe-haven currency has become more pronounced, aiding countries in managing global economic instability and promoting cross-border usage in Southeast Asia [2]. Group 3: Chiang Mai Initiative Improvements - Over the past 20 years, the Chiang Mai Initiative has improved its rescue capabilities, governance structure, and institutional framework, becoming an essential part of the global financial safety net [2]. - The initiative has not yet been activated by member countries, but there is a growing call to enhance its usability [2]. - Recent discussions indicate significant progress in improving the functionality and usability of the Chiang Mai Initiative, particularly in addressing short-term capital flow risks through a rapid financing mechanism [2][3]. Group 4: Capital Contribution Transition - The initiative is transitioning from a multilateral swap agreement to a true regional financial safety net by establishing a technical working group to facilitate capital contributions [3]. - Current rules require that 60% of the Chiang Mai Initiative funds be linked to IMF loan conditions, with the remaining 40% subject to member countries' discretion; discussions are underway to potentially lower this linkage ratio, enhancing the initiative's independence and flexibility [3].

近 日 ， 中 国 人 民 银 行 行 长 潘 功 胜 率 团 赴 意 大 利 米 兰 出 席 东 盟 与 中 日 韩 （1 0+3）财长和央行行长会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相 关讨论时表示，进一步完善清迈倡议机制、强化本区域金融安全网至关重 要。引入可以人民币等非美元可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具，既拓 展了清迈倡议的可用资源，凸显了区域特色，也标志着国际货币体系多元 化在本地区的积极进展，具有突破性意义。潘功胜呼吁区域国家团结一致 应对美关税冲击，他还介绍了中方相关宏观经济政策。 2025年5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央 行行长会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域 宏观经济形势造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO） 等议题深入交换了意见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共 识。会议一致通过了在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安 排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步讨论方 ...