美联储货币政策转向不仅影响短期资本流动，更将深刻改变国际货币体系的运行逻辑和全球金融治理的 架构设计。根据国际货币体系演进理论，美元流动性条件的改变将影响新兴市场和发展中经济体的融资 成本和融资渠道，可能推动国际货币体系多元化进程加速。 全球金融体系正迎来一个深刻变革与重构的历史性时刻。美联储于2025年9月18日宣布下调联邦基金利 率，将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.50%下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%，这是美联储2025年以来 首次降息；10月29日，美联储进一步将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间，也 是自去年9月开启降息周期以来的第五次降息，本年度累计降幅已达50个基点，不仅标志着其货币政策 周期的重要转折，更意味着全球货币政策协调机制、资本流动格局与金融治理体系将进入新一轮调整与 重塑阶段。这一转变既源于美国国内经济周期演进与结构变迁的内生要求，也是应对全球经济增速放 缓、通胀动态演变与金融环境变化的必然选择。正如习近平总书记所指出的"全球治理体系正处于调整 变革的关键时期，我们要积极参与国际规则制定，做全球治理变革进程的参与者、推动者、引领 者。"在这一 ...

Core Insights - A significant shift in the global financial landscape is occurring, with a particular country's currency rapidly reshaping the international trade settlement system [1] - The usage of the US dollar and euro in bilateral trade has dropped to a level described as "statistical error," while the domestic currency's settlement ratio has surged from below 3% to over 99% in the past decade [1][3] Group 1: Trade Settlement Changes - Currently, 99.1% of bilateral trade settlements are conducted using the two countries' currencies, with over one-third of foreign exchange reserves and 60% of the national welfare fund allocated to this particular currency [3] - The trading volume of this currency on the Moscow Exchange has increased 40 times, surpassing the trading scale of the US dollar, indicating a strong preference among the public for holding this currency over the domestic currency [3] Group 2: Drivers of Change - The catalyst for this financial transformation stems from external pressures, particularly after the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2022, which led to the exclusion of this country from international payment systems and the freezing of its assets [5] - The stability of this currency's exchange rate and its comprehensive industrial support have made it the preferred choice for transactions across a wide range of goods, effectively mitigating exchange rate fluctuation risks [5] Group 3: Broader Implications - Analysts suggest that this trend extends beyond bilateral trade, with multiple central banks increasing their holdings of this currency's assets and regional agreements for local currency settlements expanding [6] - The rise of this currency from a "marginal role" to a "core option" reflects the international community's urgent need for a diversified currency system and highlights the unique value of stable currencies in turbulent times [6]

Core Insights - China is exploring innovative financial strategies to manage its foreign exchange reserves amidst the rising risks associated with U.S. Treasury securities, potentially reshaping the global monetary landscape [1][4][10] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Global Implications - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $34 trillion and continues to grow rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of the long-term value of dollar assets [4][10] - The uncertainty in the U.S. political environment often turns the debt issue into a political bargaining chip, leading global investors, especially large institutional ones, to reassess their asset allocation strategies [4][10] Group 2: China's Innovative Financial Strategies - China is enhancing its foreign exchange reserve management through a series of well-designed financial arrangements, moving beyond traditional asset management [4][8] - A notable example includes China's innovative cooperation with major energy-exporting countries, which not only involves traditional energy trade but also diversified financial arrangements [5][8] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi is gaining momentum, with its share in global payments expected to reach a new high in 2024, driven by China's increasing economic influence and financial market openness [7][12] - The establishment of a currency cooperation network between the People's Bank of China and multiple central banks supports the cross-border use of the Renminbi [7] Group 4: Debt Conversion Mechanisms - China has developed a multi-tiered debt conversion mechanism to optimize the structure of its foreign exchange reserves, allowing for the transformation of some dollar assets into forms that better meet the needs of various parties [8][10] Group 5: Evolving Global Financial Landscape - The traditional dollar-centric international monetary system is evolving towards a more diversified structure, with emerging market countries playing an increasingly significant role [10][12] - The next five years are anticipated to be crucial for the transformation of the international monetary system, with the Renminbi expected to play a more prominent role [12][14] Group 6: Trends in Global Monetary Systems - The current changes in the international financial sector indicate a profound trend towards a multi-currency system, with China contributing unique insights for global financial stability [13][14] - A diversified foundation is essential for true financial security, and China's active participation in international financial rule-making aims to foster a fairer and more inclusive global financial system [14]

Core Insights - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest in nearly 30 years, and has not exceeded 60% for eleven consecutive quarters [1][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) attributes this decline primarily to exchange rate fluctuations, stating that the actual drop in dollar share is only 0.13 percentage points when adjusted for these factors [3] - There is a significant shift in investment strategies, with central banks reducing their purchases of US long-term securities by 94% in the second quarter, and instead opting to buy US stocks [5][10] Investment Trends - The US stock market has rebounded by 11% in the second quarter, contributing an estimated $189.4 billion in valuation gains to global dollar reserves [5] - Central banks are increasingly favoring gold, with global official gold reserves surpassing US Treasury holdings for the first time, reaching $3.86 trillion, which accounts for 23.56% of total global reserves [13] - The demand for gold has hit record levels, with purchases exceeding the average of the past decade by 41% [13] Currency Dynamics - The share of "other currencies" in global reserves has increased by 1.42 percentage points since 2022, indicating a trend of countries bypassing the dollar in trade settlements [16][20] - The Chinese yuan has gained prominence, becoming the fourth largest payment currency globally, with over 80 countries including it in their foreign exchange reserves [20] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" is reshaping the global financial landscape, moving towards a more diversified currency system [21][23] Future Outlook - The shift from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency framework is expected to enhance flexibility and stability in the global economy [23] - The process of transitioning away from dollar reliance will be gradual, but the trend towards a diversified monetary system is becoming increasingly clear [23]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of global central banks' "de-dollarization" is leading to a structural change in the international monetary system, with an increasing share of gold in foreign exchange reserves over the past 15 years [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, providing strong structural support for gold prices. By the second quarter of 2025, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to drop to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995 [1][2]. - One-third of the 75 central banks managing $5 trillion in assets plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 1-2 years, marking a five-year high [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is not solely driven by market sentiment but is a result of long-term adjustments in monetary reserve structures by global central banks [2]. - The demand for gold from central banks has exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, providing a structural floor for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US's internal "de-globalization" trends are reshaping the pricing logic of gold, transitioning from market-driven pricing to a focus on national sovereign reserve currency pricing [3][4]. - The decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% since 2025, is correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the weakening dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies [4]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly accumulating gold, with North American and European markets leading in gold ETFs [4]. - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, is lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further driving investment into the gold market [4]. Group 5: Currency Reallocation - The rise of the renminbi as a potential asset class is highlighted, with 30% of global central banks planning to increase their allocation to renminbi assets, which may rise to 6% in foreign exchange reserves [6]. - The structural transformation of the renminbi's exchange rate is supported by improvements in China's manufacturing sector, particularly in high-value-added industries [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has announced its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking a total reduction of 125 basis points since the easing cycle began in September 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Decision - The decision reflects a comprehensive assessment of macroeconomic indicators, with signs of a slowing labor market and a projected unemployment rate of 4.5% [3][4] - The expected PCE inflation rate for 2025 is 3.0%, indicating a downward trend, which provides space for monetary policy adjustment [3][10] - The median projection for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is 3.6%, suggesting further rate cuts are anticipated [4][6] Group 2: Economic Forecast Adjustments - GDP growth expectations have been revised upward, with 2025 projected at 1.6% and 2026 at 1.8%, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy despite global slowdowns [8][9] - Unemployment rate forecasts remain stable, with a slight decrease expected in 2026 [9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 have been adjusted, with PCE inflation projected at 2.6% [10] Group 3: Global Financial Market Impacts - The rate cut is expected to improve short-term liquidity in global capital markets while prompting structural adjustments in the medium to long term [11] - Commodity markets are undergoing significant price re-evaluations, influenced by lower financing costs and improved demand expectations [12][13] - The capital flow dynamics are shifting, with a potential increase in investments in emerging markets as U.S. dollar assets become less attractive [14][18] Group 4: Future Trends in Global Monetary Policy - The rate cut opens opportunities for enhanced policy coordination among major economies, potentially leading to a new round of global financial governance [16][17] - Emerging markets may benefit from increased capital inflows, but they must also manage the risks of asset bubbles and financial vulnerabilities [18][19] - The international monetary system is likely to undergo significant changes, with a potential decline in the dollar's dominance and an increase in the roles of other currencies [20][22]

Group 1: Zinc Market Overview - Zinc prices have entered a downward trend due to a relaxed supply side and disappointing demand expectations in the U.S. macroeconomic environment [1] - The U.S. tariff policy adjustments under the Trump administration are expected to lead to a long-term decline in the dollar, which will positively impact zinc prices [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production has slightly decreased year-on-year due to declining ore grades, with future increases expected to be limited [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining production is anticipated to recover in the medium to long term, despite recent reductions due to weather and maintenance issues [2] - Domestic zinc smelting output is expected to increase year-on-year, but the growth potential remains limited due to reduced imports from overseas smelters [3] - The overall supply of zinc ore is expected to continue growing, but the year-on-year increase will be relatively modest [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - Weak demand is observed in the construction sector, with significant declines in operating rates for cement and asphalt facilities [4] - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with new construction and completion areas showing a year-on-year decline [4] - The automotive sector is seeing growth driven by trade-in policies and promotions, which may support zinc demand in the medium to long term [4] Group 4: Price Outlook - The combination of a declining dollar and resilient macro data is expected to provide some support for zinc prices [5] - However, the ongoing increase in supply coupled with weak demand will lead to a more relaxed supply-demand structure, potentially putting downward pressure on prices [5] - The expected price range for zinc may shift downward, but the space for decline is expected to be narrower than before due to limited supply growth and macroeconomic support [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for China to promote a diversified, equitable, and stable international monetary system in response to rising uncertainties in the current international monetary framework, highlighting the dual trends of fragmentation and diversification [1] Group 1: International Monetary System - The current international monetary system is experiencing increased uncertainty, with the U.S. dollar's dominance unlikely to collapse in the short term, but future developments may lead to a more fragmented and diversified system [1] - China should push for the diversification of reserve currencies to enhance the safety of foreign exchange reserves and cautiously advance the internationalization of the Renminbi [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In March 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing its total holdings down to $765.4 billion, thus falling from the second-largest to the third-largest holder [2] - The report suggests optimizing the strategy for holding U.S. Treasury bonds by flexibly adjusting the duration and constructing a diversified reserve system to enhance economic and financial resilience [2] Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - The report identifies the internationalization of the Renminbi as a crucial direction, focusing on countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP regions [2] - It recommends increasing the use of the Renminbi in trade settlements and investment activities in neighboring countries to enhance its acceptance and influence [2] Group 4: Stablecoins - The global stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, particularly with U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins extending their influence into traditional finance [3] - The report advocates for China to recognize and respond to this trend by exploring stablecoin applications through regulatory sandboxes and enhancing research in this area [3] Group 5: Regional Financial Cooperation - The report calls for the establishment of a regional financial safety net and strengthening financial cooperation with neighboring partners such as ASEAN and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [3] - It emphasizes the need for a robust internal financial risk prevention system, including macro-prudential management frameworks and monitoring of cross-border capital flows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international monetary system is gradually diversifying, with a significant decline in the influence of the US dollar expected within the next decade. The internationalization of the Renminbi and the rise of digital currencies will be key drivers in reshaping the global financial landscape [1]. Group 1 - Renminbi internationalization is predicted to play an important role in the transformation of the global financial system [1]. - The influence of the US dollar is expected to decrease significantly in the next ten years [1]. - The emergence of digital currencies is identified as a crucial factor in the evolution of the international monetary system [1].

Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]