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风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20251026
CMS· 2025-10-26 13:40
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue, combining investment expectations based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The overall market growth style portfolio achieved a return of 4.58%, while the value style portfolio returned 2.24% in the last week [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.08, while for the value style it is 1.12, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 63.24%, compared to 36.76% for the value style, based on seven win rate indicators [3][19] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.32, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.22, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][21] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.99%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.04 [4][22]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250928
CMS· 2025-09-28 14:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is the innovative approach to combining investment expectations based on odds and win rates to address the issue of value and growth style rotation [1][8] - The report indicates that the growth style portfolio had a return of -0.48% last week, while the value style portfolio had a return of -0.82% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while the value style is estimated at 1.13, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 63.24%, compared to 36.76% for the value style, based on seven win rate indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.33, while the value style's investment expectation is -0.22, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 28.06%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.04 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250816
CMS· 2025-08-16 13:26
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - Last week, the overall market growth style portfolio achieved a return of 3.34%, while the value style portfolio returned 1.02% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while the value style is estimated at 1.09, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 68.88%, compared to 31.12% for the value style, based on eight win rate indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.45, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.90%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250810
CMS· 2025-08-10 08:09
Group 1: Core Insights - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance shows that the growth style portfolio achieved a return of 2.54%, while the value style portfolio returned 2.24% [1][8] Group 2: Odds - The relative valuation levels of market styles are key factors influencing expected odds, which are negatively correlated [2][14] - The current estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while for the value style it is 1.09 [2][14] Group 3: Win Rates - Among seven win rate indicators, four point to growth and three to value, resulting in a current win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 4: Investment Expectations and Strategy Returns - The investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while for the value style it is -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.62%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250720
CMS· 2025-07-20 11:20
Group 1: Core Insights - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The latest growth style investment expectation is calculated at 0.14, while the value style investment expectation is at -0.04, recommending a shift towards growth style [4][18] Group 2: Odds - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.11, while for the value style it is 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The report emphasizes that the relative valuation level of market styles is a key influencing factor for expected odds [2][14] Group 3: Win Rates - Among seven win rate indicators, four point towards growth and three towards value, resulting in a current win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16][17] Group 4: Investment Expectations and Strategy Returns - The annualized return of the style rotation model strategy from 2013 to present is 27.35%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 [4][19] - The total return for the growth style is 544.78%, while for the value style it is 605.02%, indicating a strong performance of both styles [19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250713
CMS· 2025-07-13 13:18
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 2.32%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 2.76% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.12, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 53.87% for growth and 46.13% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.14, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.04, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.19%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.00 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报20250627:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250629
CMS· 2025-06-29 09:01
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue, combining investment expectations based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 5.49%, while the value style portfolio returned 3.33% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, and for the value style, it is 1.09, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 68.88%, while the value style has a win rate of 31.12%, based on seven indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.96%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值/成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250615
CMS· 2025-06-15 08:56
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style rotation based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -0.01%, while the value style portfolio returned -0.14% [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 68.88% for growth and 31.12% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250517
CMS· 2025-05-17 13:49
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.82%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.15% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.09, and for the value style, it is 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 4 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 58.26% for growth and 41.74% for value [3][18] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.22, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.13, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][19] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.18%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][20]
风格轮动策略周报20250418:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250420
CMS· 2025-04-20 13:39
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style switching based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was 0.88%, while the value style portfolio achieved a return of 1.77% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.03, and for the value style, it is 1.07, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, while 4 favor value, resulting in a win rate of 46.13% for growth and 53.87% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The investment expectation formula yields a value style investment expectation of 0.11 and a growth style expectation of -0.06, leading to a recommendation for the value style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 26.20%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.96 [4][18]