10月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示， 10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月上升0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，我国经济总体 产出保持总体稳定。 （文章来源：证券时报） 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊表示，尽管10月工作日减少，历史上多数情形下环比下降，但此次降幅要略 大于季节性均值。生产端的收缩是主要特征，也是数据边际变化的源头。可能和月内关税、航运环境存 在较大不确定性的背景下企业的避险预期有关，即企业主动审慎生产来规避外部环境风险。 此外，10月31日国家发展改革委新闻发布会通报的信息显示，近期，地方政府债务结存限额中安排了 5000亿元，用于补充地方政府综合财力和扩大有效投资。其中，新增了2000亿元专项债券额度，专门用 于支持部分省份投资建设。"'投资补短板'是四季度宏观政策主线。"郭磊说。 分析认为，10月份，尽管制造业市场供需两端有所偏弱，企业活力也有所承压，但主要受国际环境更趋 复杂，而高技术制造业、装备制造业和消费品行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The October PMI data indicates a slight decline below expectations, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.0, down 0.8 points month-on-month, reflecting a lack of consistent economic signals in the short term [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0, lower than the previous value of 49.8, while the service PMI is at 50.2, slightly up from 50.1. The construction PMI stands at 49.1, down from 49.3 [5][11]. - The October EPMI (Emerging Industries PMI) saw a significant increase of 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical increase for this month [5][6]. Production and Economic Signals - A notable contraction in the production sector is observed, with production, procurement, new orders, and backlog orders indices decreasing by 2.2, 2.6, 0.9, and 0.7 points respectively [8][11]. - The production index fell sharply from 51.9 in September to 49.7 in October, attributed to uncertainties in tariffs and shipping environments, leading companies to adopt a more cautious production approach [8][10]. Recent Developments in Trade - Recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in late October resulted in the cancellation of certain tariffs and a pause on additional tariffs, which may positively influence the PMI production index in November [2][10]. Construction Sector Insights - A positive signal from the October PMI series is the rebound in new orders and business activity expectations in the construction sector, with increases of 3.7 and 3.6 points respectively, reaching the highest levels since March and February [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan has been fully allocated to support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [3][11]. Market Implications - The October PMI reflects a manufacturing PMI retreat and a decline in the construction index, indicating that the rise in infrastructure has not fully offset the decline in real estate investment, which is favorable for the bond market [4][15]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases suggests a potential decrease in interest rates, although the space for significant rate cuts may be limited due to the ongoing fiscal policies and rising construction orders [4][15].