中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 2 月份，制造业采购经理指数（ PMI ）为 49.0% ，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业 景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 51.5% ，比上月上升 1.2 个百分点，高于临界点；中、小 型企业 PMI 分别为 47.5% 和 44.8% ，比上月下降 1.2 个和 2.6 个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指 数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为 49.6% ，比上月下降 1.0 个百分点，表明制造业生产活动有所放缓。 国家统计局服务业调查中心 新订单指数为 48.6% ，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气度下降。 原材料库存指数为 47.5% ，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅 略有收窄。 从业人员指数为 48.0% ，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回 落。 供应商配送时间指数为 49.1% ，比上月下降 1.0 个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应 ...

3月4日，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会联合发布2月份中国采购经理指数。受春节假 期等季节性因素影响，当月制造业PMI回落至49.0%，非制造业商务活动指数微升至49.5%。 数据显示，制造业短期景气有所放缓，但经济运行中的积极因素持续积累：高技术制造业PMI连续13个月位于 扩张区间，新动能稳中有增；服务业受节日消费拉动明显回升，企业预期相对稳定，业务活动预期指数仍在 55%的较高水平。 季节性因素拖累制造业PMI 2月份，制造业PMI为49.0%，景气水平较上月下降。制造业景气度下降体现在生产和需求两端：生产指数、新 订单指数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、进口指数、购进价格指数有所下 降，指数降幅在0.1至2.8个百分点之间。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，从历史数据看，春节所在月份的PMI大多会出现一些波 动，尤其今年春节假期有所延长且全部落在2月中下旬，企业生产经营受到一定影响，制造业市场活跃度总体 有所下降。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，2月份，制造业新订单指数为48.6%，较上月下降0.6个百分点，显示制造 业市场需求整体收紧，原因 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report constructs a fitting prediction system based on high - frequency data for the manufacturing PMI. The historical back - test shows that the directional prediction win - rates of this method for the production, new orders, and comprehensive PMI are over 82%, 62%, and 70% respectively, providing an effective quantitative analysis framework for predicting manufacturing trends [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Basic Definition and Components of the Purchasing Managers' Index - **Definition of PMI**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an internationally recognized leading indicator for macro - economic monitoring. The manufacturing PMI, with 50% as the "boom - bust watershed", reflects the manufacturing economic situation and is an important barometer for assessing manufacturing prosperity and predicting macro - economic trends [8]. - **Components of Manufacturing PMI**: It is calculated by weighting five key sub - items: new order index (30%), production index (25%), employment index (20%), (100 - supplier delivery time index) (15%), and main raw material inventory index (10%). Demand and supply sub - items have a combined weight of 55% and are the core factors for judging the PMI trend [9][11][12]. 2. Prediction Ideas and Indicator Screening for Manufacturing PMI - **Prediction Ideas**: A fitting prediction system centered on high - frequency data is constructed. The process includes screening high - frequency data affecting supply and demand, fitting the PMI production index and new order index with these data, and then fitting the manufacturing PMI [13][14]. - **High - frequency Indicator Screening**: For the PMI production index, 14 supply - side high - frequency indicators are selected, focusing on the steel and petrochemical industries. For the PMI new order index, high - frequency indicators cover bulk consumption and investment demand, personnel flow, external demand, and intermediate product prices [13][15]. 3. Fitting of the Manufacturing PMI Index - **Fitting of PMI Production Index**: After monthly averaging the selected high - frequency indicators, a regression analysis model is built. The historical prediction win - rate for the direction of the production index is over 82%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 50.36, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [16]. - **Fitting of PMI New Order Index**: Using the same framework, a high - frequency simulation combination with 16 core indicators is built. The historical prediction win - rate for the direction of the new order index is over 62%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 44.27, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [18]. - **Fitting of Manufacturing PMI Index**: After fitting the production and new order indices, the manufacturing PMI is predicted. The historical win - rate for the direction judgment of the manufacturing PMI is 70%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 46.2, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [20]. 4. Summary - The research selects representative daily or weekly indicators from supply and demand sides, simulates the changes of PMI production and new order indices, and finally fits the comprehensive PMI. The system shows high fitting accuracy and reliable prediction ability for the "boom - bust line" direction, enhancing the timeliness and forward - looking of macro - economic monitoring [22].

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of February 3, 2026, is 1.40, an increase of 0.25 from January 27. Key contributors to this rise include the "import dry bulk freight index" and the "30-city commodity housing sales index," which increased by 0.29 and 0.16 respectively [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 47.4% respectively [20]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs remain in the expansion zone at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively [20]. Supply and Demand Indicators - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell from 50.8% to 49.2%, and the new export orders index dropped from 49.0% to 47.8% [2][20]. - The purchasing volume index decreased from 51.1% to 48.7%, indicating weakened demand for raw materials [2][20]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points and in the contraction zone. The construction and service sector PMIs are at 48.8% and 49.5% respectively [21]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchasing price index increased by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1%, the highest level since June 2024. The factory price index rose from 48.9% to 50.6% [2][20]. Financial Market Indicators - The central bank's net fund injection through open market operations is 138.3 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 1.3895 trillion yuan [7]. - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 5 basis points to 1.43%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 7 basis points to 1.56% [11][12]. Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 8.7%, 30.87%, and 50.31% respectively, while second-hand housing transaction areas decreased by 3.47%, 5.73%, and 34.4% [33]. Commodity Prices - Steel billet prices decreased by 0.34% week-on-week and year-on-year, while cement prices fell by 0.80% week-on-week and 18.57% year-on-year [22]. - The coal price remained stable at 685 yuan/ton, with an increase in the number of vessels at the Qinhuangdao anchorage [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has shown a continuous improvement in the business environment, rising from 51.9 in December to 52.3 in January, reflecting sustained growth in business activities for six consecutive months [1] - The increase in the PMI is primarily driven by the service sector, followed by wholesale and retail, while manufacturing and construction sectors are moving in the opposite direction [1] - The growth in new orders has significantly increased, marking the second-highest expansion rate since May 2023, attributed to companies adjusting market strategies and launching new products [1] Group 2 - Input costs have risen at a slower pace in January, but remain significant, with businesses reporting an increase in raw material prices, leading to higher procurement costs [2] - Despite improved market demand, businesses have a pessimistic outlook for the upcoming year, with negative sentiment reaching its highest level in five months due to factors like U.S. trade policies and global economic downturns [2] - Companies are becoming more active in procurement, with an increase in purchasing quantities and inventory expansion, indicating a positive trend in business activities to meet customer demand [2]

Group 1 - S&P Global's Australia Composite PMI increased from 51 to 55.7 in January 2026, indicating the highest growth in the private sector output in 45 months and marking the 16th consecutive month of expansion [1] - The growth in both manufacturing output and service sector activity in January 2026 reached the highest level since April 2022, with new business growth accelerating [2] - The service sector PMI rose significantly from 51.1 in December 2025 to 56.3 in January 2026, indicating continuous expansion for 24 months above the neutral mark of 50 [2] Group 2 - The increase in service sector activity was attributed to improvements in both domestic and external demand, leading to the highest expansion rate in nearly four years [2] - Despite the growth in business activity, private sector business confidence fell to its lowest level since October 2024, reflecting concerns over the economic outlook and increased competition [2] - Input cost pressures eased in January, allowing businesses to slow down the pace of price increases, which could support future demand growth [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 51.9 in December to 52.3 in January, indicating a sustained and strong improvement in the business environment [1] - Business activity has increased for six consecutive months, with the expansion rate remaining stable month-on-month, driven primarily by the services sector, followed by wholesale and retail, while manufacturing and construction showed opposite trends [1] - The increase in new orders was significant, marking the second-highest expansion rate since May 2023, attributed to companies adjusting market strategies and launching new products, alongside improved demand from overseas and mainland markets [1] Group 2 - Input costs rose at a slower pace in January, but overall increases remain significant, with businesses reporting rising raw material prices as a key factor for higher procurement costs [2] - Employee costs saw a moderate increase, with the smallest rise since September of the previous year, as companies attempted to pass on costs to customers through higher prices, although many offered discounts to stimulate sales [2] - Despite improved market demand, businesses remain pessimistic about the outlook for the coming year, with negative sentiment reaching its highest level in five months, influenced by factors such as U.S. trade policies, intense market competition, and a sluggish global economy [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January increased from 51.9 to 52.3, indicating continuous expansion for six consecutive months [1] - New export orders saw the largest increase since March 2023 [1] Group 1 - The PMI's rise to 52.3 reflects a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, suggesting robust economic activity [1] - The sustained expansion in the PMI indicates a stable recovery in Hong Kong's economy [1] - The significant growth in new export orders may signal increased demand from international markets [1]

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][12] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point; small and medium-sized enterprises had PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, both below the critical point [1][15] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion; the new orders index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1][14] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued decrease in inventory levels; the employment index was 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight decline in employment levels [1][14] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2][12] - The construction industry Business Activity Index was 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, while the services industry Business Activity Index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [2][16] - The new orders index was 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand; the construction new orders index was 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points [2][16] - The input prices index was 50.0%, indicating stability in input prices; the construction input prices index was 52.0%, up 1.2 percentage points, while the services input prices index was 49.7%, down 0.4 percentage points [2][3] Group 3: Price and Employment Trends - The sales price index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices; the construction sales price index was 48.2%, up 0.8 percentage points, and the services sales price index was 48.9%, also up 0.8 percentage points [3] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, stable from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions; the construction employment index was 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the services employment index was 47.0%, unchanged [3][16] - The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points but still indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises; the construction expectation index was 49.8%, below the critical point, while the services expectation index was 57.1%, up 0.7 percentage points [3][16] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [4][12] - The manufacturing production index was 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, contributing to the overall decline in the Comprehensive PMI [17]