Core Insights - The UAE's non-oil private sector showed continued improvement in business conditions in October, but the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month [1] - The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased from 54.2 in September to 53.8 in October, indicating that growth momentum remains above the mid-year average [1] - New orders surged, driving output higher, but employment growth slowed to its lowest level in seven months [1] Economic Indicators - The PMI for Dubai rose to 54.5, the highest level since January of this year, reflecting increases in new orders and output despite moderate employment growth [1] - Companies benefited from a second consecutive month of slowing cost increases, allowing output prices to remain stable [1] - There is a noted decline in optimism regarding future business prospects, leading to nearly stagnant hiring [1] Employment and Confidence - Employment growth has reached its lowest level in seven months, indicating potential challenges in labor market dynamics [1] - Business confidence is reported to be at its lowest level in nearly three years, as noted by S&P Global's senior economist David Owen [1]

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Hong Kong rose to 51.2 in October, up from 50.4 in September, indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - Businesses remain cautious about their outlook for the next year despite the increase in new orders [1] Group 1: Orders and Capacity - New orders recorded growth for the first time in nine months, marking the largest increase in a year, driven by improved customer confidence [1] - New export orders continued to decline due to a sluggish global economy and U.S. tariffs, but new orders from mainland China saw growth for the first time in a year, offsetting weak performance in overseas markets [1] - Despite the increase in orders, backlogs have decreased for ten consecutive months, indicating excess capacity in the private sector [1] Group 2: Employment and Costs - Companies increased procurement for the first time since February to align with sales, but employment growth remained modest [1] - Overall input costs have risen at a slower pace due to stable wage growth, although rising raw material prices have pushed procurement prices higher [1] - Companies have raised prices for four consecutive months, with the increase being the largest in a year [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Both production index and new orders index have decreased, with values of 49.7% and 48.8% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in production and market demand [1] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI above the critical point, while small and medium enterprises show varying degrees of decline, with PMIs of 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively [1] Group 2 - Three key sectors, including high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods, continue to expand with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating strong support for the overall manufacturing sector [1] - The high-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.3%, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in activity [1] - The production and business activity expectation index stands at 52.8%, remaining in the expansion zone, suggesting that most manufacturing enterprises maintain an optimistic outlook on market development [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China experienced a decline in October, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in production and market demand, while the non-manufacturing sector showed slight improvement with a PMI of 50.1% [2][3][4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points, marking the first contraction since April [3] - The new orders index decreased to 48.8%, reflecting a decline in market demand [3] - Seasonal factors, including the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with historical data showing a pattern of decreases in October [3][4] - Despite the overall decline, certain industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace maintained production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating robust activity [4][5] External Demand and Trade Impact - The new export orders index fell by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and Chinese exports [4] Structural Highlights in Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed resilience, with their respective PMIs at 50.5% and 50.2%, indicating continued expansion [5] - Large enterprises reported stable performance, with production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion, with significant growth in sectors related to consumer spending and infrastructure [6][7] - The service sector, particularly in transportation and hospitality, saw high activity levels, driven by holiday consumption and promotional events [6][7] - The construction sector experienced a temporary decline, but indicators suggest a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment due to recent policy measures [7] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Recent fiscal policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt issuance, are expected to support infrastructure investment and stabilize economic activity [7][8] - The overall economic activity is anticipated to remain resilient, with macroeconomic policies expected to take effect and further consolidate the foundation for stable economic operation [8]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall economic stability in output [1] Group 2 - Key sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods are showing expansion, which is a positive highlight amidst the overall weak supply and demand in the manufacturing market [1] - There are signs of accelerated activity related to infrastructure investment within the non-manufacturing business activity index, which is noteworthy [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt limits to enhance financial capacity and expand effective investment, with an additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds for investment projects [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][3] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all below the critical point [3] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production [4] - The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decrease in market demand [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a continued reduction in inventory levels [5] - The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment conditions in manufacturing [5] - The supplier delivery time index was at 50.0%, indicating stable delivery times compared to the previous month [5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion [7] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [12] - The input prices index was 49.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices [12] - The sales prices index was 47.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating that sales prices remained below the previous month [12] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing slight improvement in employment conditions [12] - The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market prospects [13] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.0% in October, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [16]

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][17] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, all below the critical point [1][18] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing production [2][18] - The new orders index was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, reflecting a drop in market demand [3][18] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels [4][18] - The employment index was 48.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a minor decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [5][18] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6][17] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in service sector activity [6][20] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [6][20] - The input prices index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices for non-manufacturing businesses [6][20] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor improvement in employment conditions [7][20] Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [8][21] - The manufacturing production index was 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, contributing to the composite index's position at the critical point [21]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, ending a two-month upward trend, with all 13 sub-indices showing declines ranging from 0.1 to 2.6 percentage points [3]. - The manufacturing production index dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction, although it remains close to the neutral level of 50% [3]. - Factors contributing to the slowdown include pre-holiday demand release and increased international trade uncertainties, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [3][4]. Demand and Export Trends - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and trade uncertainties [4]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing, which are crucial for exports, experienced significant tightening in new orders, impacting overall market demand [4][6]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the challenges, the three key industries—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing—maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion [6][7]. - The production and new orders indices for these sectors hovered around 51%, reflecting stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policy measures [7]. Price Trends and Cost Pressures - In October, the purchasing and factory gate price indices for equipment manufacturing rose for three consecutive months, with the factory price index reaching a new high since June 2024 [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in the purchasing price index, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profitability in this sector [8]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.1%, remaining above the neutral level, with significant contributions from sectors related to consumer spending during the holiday season [10]. - The construction sector showed signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering business activity index rising significantly, indicating a positive outlook for infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [10].

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, all below the critical point, with declines of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points [1] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production [2] New Orders and Employment - The new orders index was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand for manufacturing [2] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a continued reduction in major raw material inventories [2] - The employment index was 48.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a minor decline in employment levels within manufacturing [2] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The construction industry index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [3] Non-Manufacturing Demand and Prices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [3] - The input prices index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices for non-manufacturing [4] - The sales prices index was 47.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, but still below the critical point, indicating lower sales prices compared to the previous month [4] Employment and Expectations in Non-Manufacturing - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating slight improvement in employment conditions [4] - The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market prospects [4] Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [5]