[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月04日 [淡季Table_NewTitle] 回落，关注两会定调 ——国内观察：2026年2月PMI 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [table_main] ➢ 事件：3月4日，国家统计局公布2月官方PMI数据。2月，制造业PMI为49.0%，前值49.3%； 非制造业PMI为49.5%，前值49.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：2月制造业PMI受春节假期影响季节性回落，但与同样春节较晚的年份相比并 不弱。价格指数的分化，可能反映下游需求的改善，消费品PMI低位回升也较为积极， 高技术及中游装备制造业PMI淡季依然偏稳。出口方面，新出口订单指数弱于季节性， 或受前置需求短期透支的影响。开年以来，主要政策接续，短期关注"开门红"的兑现， 以 ...

2 月 PMI：春节短期因素扰动较大 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 —2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 2 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，仍处 于收缩区间。我们认为，由于今年春节假期相较去年延长，同时假期处于中 下旬，节后复工的强度更多将体现于 3 月数据上而非 2 月。从结构上看，制 造业企业生产指数有所放缓至收缩区间，而市场有效需求仍显不足。从行业 角度来看，高技术制造业 PMI 仍处于扩张区间，消费品行业景气水平有所回 升但仍处于收缩区间，装备制造业及高耗能行业较上月小幅回落。 2 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.5%，较上月有所放缓，非制造业商务活动 指数为 49.5%，比上月小幅回升。受春节假日效应带动，居民出行消费相关 行业景气度回升，而建筑业处于淡季景气下降。 我们认为，在树立和践行正确政绩观的指引下，或将更多注重经济的高质量 发展而非短期数量增长，通过高技术制造业引领，兼顾数量与质量的"开门 红"。2 月 28 日国家统计局党组召开会议对开展树立和践行正 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 春节长假影响制造业 PMI 指数季节性下行，服务业景气度回升 ———— 2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2026 年 2 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比 1 月下降 0.3 个百分点；2 月非制造业商务活动指数为 49.5%，比 1 月回升 0.1 个百分点，其中，建筑 业商务活动指数为 48.2%，比 1 月下降 0.6 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 49.7%，比 1 月回升 0.2 个百 分点；2 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.5%，比 1 月下降 0.3 个百分点。 2 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 2月制造业PMI指数比上月回落0.3个百分点至49.0%，基本符合预期。可以看到，剔除极端数据， 过去十年"春节月"该指数平均环比下降约 0.4 个百分点。今年春节落在 2 月，假期增加 1 天，企业员 工放假、农民工大规模返乡过节，带动制造业 PMI 指数中的生产指数大幅度下降 1 个百分点至 49.6%， 是 2 月整体指数下行的主要原因。其次，在假期企业生产放缓的过程中，制造业产业链需求也 ...

guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2月制造业PMI大致吻合季节性。2月是制造业淡季，历史上春节部分相近年份的2月制造业景气度以 环比下行为主，今年叠加长假影响，环比下行0.3个点基本符合预期。 第二， BCI数据环比也有所回踩，但因为其兼容环同比，所以中枢相对更积极一些，1月和2月绝对值均处于 2025年4月以来的高点，即2026年初经济同比意义上有小幅高开特征。在周度报告中，我们估算1-2月实际 GDP同比增速为4.86%。 第三， 2月PMI结构特征有三：一是生产指标放缓幅度大于订单，这与前期出来的EPMI一致，其背后是长假 影响；二是生产速度放缓的背景下，产成品库存水位有明显下降；三是大企业景气度好于中小企业，大企业 PMI甚至环比上行1.2个点，可能是其分布中上游居多，受春节假期影响偏小。 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 第四， PMI生产经营活动预期指数环比上行，即企业的生产计划和对未来的预期并未有收缩，这一点也是指 标放缓主要来自长假因素的印证。BCI企业投资前瞻指数、企业招工前瞻指数同样有所上行。 第五， 高技术制造业整体景气度偏高，消费品行业景气度环比改善，中游和上游的装备制造业、原 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the next five years are crucial for China's manufacturing digital transformation, transitioning from "benchmark leadership" to "scale promotion" and from "digital empowerment" to "intelligent application" [1] - The digital transformation of manufacturing is entering a phase of widespread adoption, supported by intelligent applications that will enhance efficiency, innovation, and sustainability [1] - The integration of technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital twins will be pivotal in optimizing decision-making and enhancing competitiveness in the manufacturing sector [1] Industry Overview - By December 2025, 89.6% of registered large-scale industrial enterprises are expected to engage in digital transformation, with a digital equipment penetration rate of 57.7% [2] - The digital transformation landscape shows a tiered structure, with the electronic information and equipment manufacturing sectors leading, while consumer goods and raw materials lag behind [2] - The automotive, shipbuilding, and electronic information manufacturing sectors have the highest rates of digital transformation, at 94.4%, 94.2%, and 93.9% respectively [2] Policy Support - The Chinese government has been increasing policy support for manufacturing transformation, with the "Digital Transformation Action Plan" approved in May 2024 [2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of digital transformation in promoting new industrialization and building a modern industrial system, with tailored strategies for different industries [2] Talent and Skills Gap - A significant challenge for manufacturing digital transformation is the shortage of composite talents who understand both industrial production and digital technologies [3] - Recommendations include enhancing the training of composite talents in higher education and vocational training to meet industry needs [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 points to 49.3, primarily due to seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, which fell by 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0, down 0.5 points, while equipment manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 50.1[2] - The consumer goods and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 48.3 and 47.9, reflecting declines of 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The automotive sector saw a significant decline, with retail sales of passenger cars dropping by 37% in January compared to the same period last year[2] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January 2026, impacting the petrochemical and chemical industries negatively[2] - The non-ferrous and black metal sectors experienced increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling[2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Construction Sector - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to lead in performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity range[5] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal declines observed in previous years[6] - New orders in the construction sector decreased by 7.3 points, indicating a slowdown in demand[8] Group 4: Service Sector Trends - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months[10] - Financial services, including monetary finance and capital market services, maintained high activity levels, with indices above 65[10] - The transportation and information services sectors saw declines in their PMIs, while residential services experienced a slight increase of 1.6 points[10]

1月份中国采购经理指数有所回落 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧 （三）大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。 大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作 用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所 回落。 （四）高技术制造业持续领跑。 高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 （五）企业预期保持乐观。 生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食 品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间， 相关企业对近期行业发展信心较强。 解读2026年1月中国采购经理指数 2026年1月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对 此，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 1月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 ...

Economic Indicators - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December 2025, indicating a contraction[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from December 2025[1] Contributing Factors - Seasonal factors contributed to the decline, as January is typically a slow month for manufacturing, with an average drop of 0.3 percentage points over the past decade[2] - The base effect from a significant increase in December 2025's PMI (up 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%) also pressured January's figures[2] - Weak domestic investment and consumption demand, alongside high external uncertainties, particularly in the real estate market, negatively impacted manufacturing[2] Specific Index Movements - The new orders index for manufacturing fell 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, the primary driver of the PMI decline[2] - The manufacturing new export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points, indicating potential export slowdown due to external uncertainties[2] - The production index in manufacturing dropped 1 percentage point to 50.6%, but remained in the expansion zone, supported by global AI investment trends[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining in expansion territory due to strong exports and domestic equipment upgrades[5] - Consumer goods and basic materials PMIs fell to 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, primarily due to slowing market demand[5] - The construction PMI dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] Future Outlook - The overall economic sentiment is expected to decline further in February due to the upcoming Spring Festival and increased holiday downtime[6] - Future manufacturing sentiment will largely depend on export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies[6] - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies expected to strengthen consumption and investment[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [1] - Industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace showed strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like petroleum and automotive experienced a slowdown with indices below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, influenced by recent increases in commodity prices, marking an improvement in the overall price level in the manufacturing market [1] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.4%, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major raw materials in manufacturing [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance, while the equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, indicating expansion [2] Group 3 - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw declines in their PMIs to 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively [2] - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, showing optimistic expectations among enterprises, particularly in the agricultural and food sectors [2] - Macroeconomic policies are expected to become more proactive, focusing on expanding domestic demand, with recent government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumption [3]