Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, the technical form is also strong with potential for further upward movement. London gold has reached above 3800, and its resistance level has shifted up to 4000; London silver's resistance has lifted to 50. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday and the increase in short - term futures positions, it is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [2][5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to rise strongly. Gold broke through the 3800 mark and reached a new high, while platinum and silver also hit stage highs, and palladium was close to its July high. The recent rise in precious metals is due to the influx of medium - to - long - term ETF investment demand and short - term futures capital buying, driven by concerns about the Fed's independence, the upcoming interest - rate cut cycle, and the risk of a government shutdown caused by the difficult passage of the US temporary budget bill. The House passed a temporary budget bill on September 19 to maintain government funding until November 21, but the Senate's vote on the same day did not reach the passing threshold. With the approaching National Day holiday and the large previous gains in precious metals, there is an increased risk of a short - term pullback due to profit - taking. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3862.9 per ounce, up 1.42%; US Silver 2512 contract closed at $47.11 per ounce, up 0.97%. SHFE Gold 2512 main contract closed at 866.52 yuan per gram, up 1.35%; SHFE Silver 2512 contract closed at 10939 yuan per kilogram, up 3.92% [2]. Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations are cooling. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 2.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 29.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 67.6%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 16.6%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.2%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.9%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1011.73 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 159.51 tons to 15521.35 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 31.4 tons to 1189.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons in the week ending September 19 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week's key data includes the non - farm payrolls report on Friday and US ISM PMI during the week. There will also be many speeches by Fed officials. On Tuesday at 18:00, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson will speak. On Wednesday at 01:00, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 07:10, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; at 08:30, Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson will speak. On Thursday at 22:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak. On Friday at 18:05, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the farewell symposium of the Dutch central bank governor [4]. Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE Gold main - continuous contract is at 866.52 yuan per gram, up 1.22%; SGX Gold TD is at 862.5 yuan per gram, up 1.13%; CME Gold main contract is at $3862.9 per ounce, up 1.93%; SHFE Silver main - continuous contract is at 10939 yuan per kilogram, up 2.89%; SGX Silver TD is at 10878 yuan per kilogram, up 3.1%; CME Silver main contract is at $47.11 per ounce, up 1.61% [6]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 68628 kilograms, up 4.26%; CME gold inventory is 1242.4729 tons, down 0.0003 tons; SHFE gold holdings are 263220 lots, down 0.41%; SPDR gold holdings are 1011.73 tons, up 0.6%; SHFE silver inventory is 1189.648 tons, up 2.71%; CME silver inventory is 16531.0249 tons, up 0.21%; SGX silver inventory is 1216.965 tons, down 2.83%; SHFE silver holdings are 508967 lots, down 6.48%; SLV silver holdings are 15521.351058 tons, up 1.04% [13][16]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 97.9486, down 0.25%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1276, up 0.26%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46316.07 points, up 0.15%; WTI crude oil spot is at $63.45 per barrel, down 3.45%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10428.5 per ton, up 2.19%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.15%, down 1.19%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.8%, down 1.1%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52%, down 8.77% [21].