Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second longest in history, with a stalemate over healthcare subsidies for 22 million Americans facing rising insurance costs in January [1] - President Trump is expected to travel to Asia soon, and lawmakers believe the shutdown may extend into November, potentially surpassing the previous record of 35 days during Trump's first term [1] - Senate Republican leader McConnell has promised a full Senate vote on extending the Affordable Care Act subsidies after the government reopens, but Democrats are skeptical about the House's willingness to hold such a vote [1][3] Group 2 - The economic impact of the shutdown is expected to deepen, with federal employees missing their first full paycheck this Friday, and warnings about potential disruptions to military pay and federal food assistance next month [2] - The unemployment rate may see a slight temporary increase due to the shutdown, particularly affecting the Washington D.C. area where federal workers and contractors are concentrated [2] - House Republicans have not met since September 19 and plan to stay away from Congress throughout October as long as the shutdown continues, asserting that no changes to the temporary funding bill are necessary to gain Democratic support [2] Group 3 - House Speaker Johnson stated there is nothing to negotiate, although year-end negotiations on expiring subsidies may occur, with conservative demands for concessions on issues like abortion and transgender care [3] - The White House has threatened to punish Democratic-majority states by canceling federal projects, with $28 billion in projects already canceled or postponed [3] - Ongoing negotiations among Senate moderates have not yielded any progress, with key Democratic Senator Shaheen indicating no clear path to resolve the impasse [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks associated with a possible U.S. government shutdown, highlighting three main "invisible risks" that could impact economic growth, data release interruptions, and specific financial instruments [1][2]. Economic Impact - A comprehensive government shutdown could lead to approximately 800,000 federal employees being furloughed, resulting in a weekly reduction of about 0.2 percentage points in annualized real GDP growth [2][7]. - The previous shutdown in October 2013 caused a decline of $8 billion in actual federal consumption expenditures, which ultimately reduced the fourth-quarter GDP growth by 30 basis points (0.3%) [7]. Data Release Interruption - The shutdown may delay the release of critical economic data such as employment reports and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), creating a "data black hole" for the Federal Reserve and market participants [4][5]. - Historical data from the 2013 shutdown indicates that the employment and CPI data releases were significantly delayed, leading to a chaotic data release schedule [4][6]. Financial Instruments Impact - The delay in CPI data could affect inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and inflation swaps. If the September CPI report is not released on time, the U.S. Treasury will use a fallback index based on the most recent available changes to calculate TIPS payment obligations [10][11]. - For inflation swaps, if the final data is released more than five business days after the payment date, actual data will be used; otherwise, a similar fallback method will apply [11]. Absence of Default Risk - Unlike the 2013 crisis, the current budget impasse does not involve a debt ceiling issue, which significantly reduces the risk of a systemic financial crisis due to government default [3][9].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The current government shutdown may have a more significant economic impact than previous instances due to President Trump's threat of permanent layoffs for federal employees, which could affect the already precarious job market [1][3] - Economists estimate that the shutdown could reduce the U.S. GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points per week, which is manageable for a $30 trillion economy, and short-term losses are typically recovered in subsequent quarters [2] - The shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, impacting the labor market and potentially leading to a more severe short-term effect on employment reports [3][4] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is already in a fragile state, particularly in Washington D.C., where federal employee layoffs have been advocated, exacerbating the situation [3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be closed during the shutdown, leading to potential delays in reporting and a decrease in data quality, which could affect economic decision-making [4] - The immediate impact on federal employees and contractors who are forced to take unpaid leave could severely affect their financial stability, even if the shutdown lasts only a week [5]