美国政府关门风险再现，德银揭示三大"隐形风险"：经济增长首当其冲，每周可能拖累GDP达0.2个百分点；其次是关键经济数据发布中断，让美联储和 市场陷入决策"数据黑洞"；最后，数据真空还会对通胀保值债券（TIPS）等金融工具产生具体的技术性冲击。所幸此次僵局不涉及债务上限，避免了系 统性违约风险。 德意志银行在9月26日发布的一份报告显示，虽然此次关门不会引发2013年那种迫在眉睫的债务违约恐慌，但其对经济增长的直接拖累、对关键经济数 据的干扰，以及对特定金融工具的技术性影响，构成了投资者真正需要警惕的"隐形风险"。 该行测算，一次全面美国的政府关门，若导致80万联邦雇员休假，将使季度年化实际GDP增长每周减少约0.2个百分点。而市场和美联储将面临关键经 济数据如就业和CPI报告的发布延迟。 不过，与2013年不同，此次僵局不涉及债务上限问题。这意味着投资者无需担忧美国政府"违约"这一系统性风险。 "每周0.2个百分点"：对GDP的直接拖累 政府关门的经济代价是明确且可以量化的。报告解释称，美国经济分析局会将联邦雇员因休假而损失的工作时间，计为"联邦政府消费支出"的减少，从 而直接拉低GDP。 "数据黑洞"：美 ...

该行测算，一次全面美国的政府关门，若导致80万联邦雇员休假，将使季度年化实际GDP增长每周减少约0.2个百分点。而市场和美联储将面临关 键经济数据如就业和CPI报告的发布延迟。 不过，与2013年不同，此次僵局不涉及债务上限问题。这意味着投资者无需担忧美国政府"违约"这一系统性风险。 "数据黑洞"：美联储与投资者的"蒙眼时刻" 对市场参与者而言，最直接的冲击将是经济数据的延迟发布。报告指出，如果政府关门，美国经济分析局（BEA）和劳工统计局（BLS）的雇员 很可能被强制休假。 这意味着，备受关注的就业报告和消费者价格指数（CPI）等关键数据将无法按时公布。报告回顾了2013年的情况，当时9月和10月的就业与CPI 数据均被重新安排，数据发布的混乱一直持续到当年12月。更糟糕的是，劳工统计局当时承认，用于计算2013年10月CPI指数的价格样本量仅为 正常水平的75%。 对于即将于10月29日召开议息会议的美联储（FOMC）而言，这无异于"蒙眼开车"。德银分析师认为，在数据真空期，美联储官员将不得不更加 依赖私营部门数据如ADP就业调查和州一级的周度失业金申请数据来评估劳动力市场状况。 随着美国国会再次陷入预算 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate its first rate cut of the year next week, with expectations of further reductions throughout 2024. However, the real challenge will arise in 2026 due to a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, a dovish new chair, and AI-driven productivity gains potentially reviving inflation expectations and asset bubbles [2] - The labor market is expected to soften, with indicators showing a rise in unemployment, a decrease in job vacancies, and a cooling turnover rate. This will prompt the Fed to adjust policy rates towards a neutral level of approximately 3% [3] - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face multiple challenges, including potential fiscal expansion regardless of election outcomes, which may lead to increased deficits and fiscal stimulus by 2026 [4] Group 2 - The market has priced in a dovish outlook for a potential new chair, with expectations for terminal rates significantly lower than historical averages and a reduced likelihood of rate hikes [5] - The potential for AI to enhance productivity has raised the estimated GDP growth rate to 2.25%, with further increases possible as AI applications become more widespread [6] - Financial conditions have already loosened, with the financial conditions index in the U.S. having declined by 75 basis points since June, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed some of the Fed's easing [6] Group 3 - High inflation expectations may lead to a resurgence in economic growth without a recession by 2026, benefiting real assets such as commodities, real estate, and infrastructure, as well as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [7] - The stock market may continue to benefit from loose liquidity, but its high valuations make it more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [7] Group 4 - Investors are advised to increase allocations to real assets and short-duration inflation-linked bonds to hedge against rising inflation premiums [8] - Attention should be given to sectors that directly benefit from fiscal stimulus, including green infrastructure, traditional energy, defense, and AI computing hardware [8] - A tactical approach is recommended for long-duration growth stocks, avoiding excessive chasing after rates drop to 3% [9] - Option strategies may be employed to hedge against potential volatility arising from a dovish chair and fiscal expansion [9] Group 5 - In the early stages of the rate-cutting cycle, the market can follow the Fed's easing pace. However, as rates approach neutral levels, new variables in fiscal policy, technology, and political appointments will complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] - Identifying and positioning in real assets and inflation protection tools may be crucial for navigating the complexities ahead [10]

Group 1 - The potential politicization of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could undermine the credibility of the $2 trillion market linked to inflation data, particularly affecting Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [1] - The recent dismissal of BLS director Erika McEntarfer by President Trump has raised concerns among investors regarding the trustworthiness of government data, which significantly impacts asset prices [1] - TIPS, which adjust their principal based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculated by the BLS, are particularly vulnerable if the integrity of CPI data is compromised [1][2] Group 2 - The TIPS market, valued at $2.1 trillion, relies heavily on the credibility of CPI data, and even minor technical adjustments could have significant effects on inflation calculations [2] - The upcoming CPI report for July is highly anticipated, with economists expecting both overall and core annual inflation rates to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - Recent economic data indicates a softening labor market, leading to increased investor bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - TIPS have performed strongly over the past year due to persistent inflation, with the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Index rising 5.7% in 2025, potentially marking its best annual performance since 2021 [3][6] - TIPS currently account for approximately 7% of the total U.S. government debt, and recent refinancing announcements suggest an increase in TIPS issuance [6] - The Treasury is expected to utilize all available tools to fulfill its responsibilities, especially following the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, maintaining significant trust in the Treasury market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department's decision to gradually increase the auction size of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) this quarter is deemed a prudent move [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is focusing on managing inflation risks through TIPS, which are designed to protect investors from inflation [1] - Increasing the auction size of TIPS is expected to enhance market liquidity and provide more investment options for investors seeking inflation protection [1] - The strategy aligns with broader economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy amid fluctuating inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the US stock market has lagged behind major markets such as China, Europe, and South Korea this year, despite recent highs [2] Market Trends - Global investors are likely to reduce their holdings in US assets and reallocate funds to other markets due to varying initial valuations across regions [2] - Emerging markets have shown strong policy responsiveness, with central banks in these regions raising interest rates earlier than G10 countries, indicating potential for better inflation performance [5] Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's current target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.50%, with expectations of one or two rate cuts this year depending on inflation and employment data [6] - The stability of inflation expectations is crucial, with historical data suggesting that central banks typically act decisively when inflation expectations rise undesirably [4][6] Debt and Fiscal Policy - The US and France have high fiscal deficit levels, with the US having a relatively low tax rate historically, which could be adjusted to reduce the deficit [7] - PIMCO has reduced holdings in 30-year bonds in the US and Europe but increased positions in Japan due to a decrease in the issuance of ultra-long bonds [7] Investment Strategy - In the current environment, high-quality fixed income assets are seen as important risk hedging tools, with potential annual returns of 5% to 7% for dollar-denominated high-quality bond portfolios [10] - The global aggregate bond index currently offers a yield of approximately 5%, while emerging market local currency bond indices yield around 6.6% [9] Future Outlook - The trend towards fragmentation and a multi-polar world is expected to be a key theme in the next three to five years, impacting global trade dynamics [8] - A diversified global investment strategy is deemed practical, with both developed and emerging markets presenting attractive investment opportunities [8]

LPR年内首降，利好将传导到楼市及消费领域 王运金 广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员 对于已购房者来说，LPR下调会带来存量房贷利率下调，居民每月的月供会相应减少，意味着可收入支 配的增加。这使得居民在满足基本生活开支后，有更多的资金用于消费，如购买家电、汽车、旅游等， 从而刺激了消费需求，带动了相关产业的发展，家具家电、汽车、旅游、餐饮零售等行业都能从中受 益，进而促进经济增长。 宏观慧眼 从宏观经济层面来看，消费和房地产市场的活跃对内需的拉动作用较为明显。消费作为经济增长的主要 动力之一，居民消费扩张可以刺激企业扩大生产，增加就业岗位，居民收入也会有所提升，会进一步刺 激消费，形成正向反馈。同时，房地产市场的稳定发展不仅对上下游产业有巨大拉动作用，还能加快城 市化进程，带动区域经济的发展。LPR的调降可以有效减轻居民房贷压力、刺激消费需求、活跃楼市、 改善预期，有利于扩大内需、促进经济增长。 存款利率下调不仅是促"存款搬家"，更是呼应资本市场"顶层设计" 薛洪言 苏商银行特约研究员 近年来，存款搬家一直是热议话题。从2022年9月份起，经过累计7轮存款挂牌价下调，主要期限定期存 款利率全面进入"1.0"时 ...

Group 1 - The current U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [1] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating concerns over fiscal sustainability [1] - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, with interest payments rising 10% to $478 billion [1] Group 2 - Short-term predictions for 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain between 5% and 5.5%, while 10-year yields are projected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5%, driven by sustained economic growth and a tight labor market [2] - Long-term projections suggest that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, 10-year yields could challenge 6% [2] Group 3 - High Treasury yields are expected to impact global financial markets, leading to a revaluation of corporate debt and increased financing costs [4] - The weakening of U.S. Treasury credit may accelerate diversification of foreign exchange reserves among central banks [4] - U.S. unilateral tariffs are causing trade partners to retaliate, increasing global supply chain costs and potentially reducing global economic growth [4] Group 4 - China is advised to reduce its concentration in U.S. Treasuries by increasing allocations to gold and non-U.S. sovereign debt [6] - There is a focus on reducing long-term U.S. Treasury exposure and increasing investments in inflation-protected securities [6] - China is encouraged to promote the expansion of the IMF and the use of multilateral clearing systems to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape in 2025 is characterized by unprecedented complexity, with market volatility and structural opportunities intertwined, necessitating a unique analytical framework for investors [1] Market Trends - The gold market is experiencing a "stair-step ascent," where prices are not rising linearly but are breaking through key resistance levels in a staggered manner, driven by three main forces: central banks' long-term gold accumulation strategy, inflation expectations, and geopolitical conflicts triggering safe-haven demand [2][4] Analytical Framework - Velos Markets employs a multi-dimensional analysis framework that integrates macroeconomic, industry dynamics, and micro trading data, likened to a "CT scanner" for financial markets, allowing for the identification of upstream drivers of market movements [5] Investment Strategies - Velos Markets offers three core investment strategies tailored to different risk appetites: "volatility-hedging" portfolios focusing on gold ETFs and TIPS, "trend-enhancing" strategies utilizing machine learning for asset rotation, and "macro-hedging" arbitrage based on geopolitical indicators [6] Global Perspective - The research team categorizes global markets into three "gravity circles": the dollar liquidity circle, regional industrial chains, and emerging currency alliances, helping investors avoid single-market pitfalls and identify alternative opportunities [8] Risk Management - Velos Markets utilizes a stress-testing matrix to quantify the probabilities of various market scenarios, incorporating ESG resilience scores to filter asset pools, demonstrating that high-scoring portfolios have lower drawdowns during climate-related events [10]