Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its sixth week, tying the historical record, with election results in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia seen as pivotal for changing the political dynamics in Washington and potentially breaking the budget deadlock [1] - Republican leaders express optimism about reaching an agreement to end the shutdown, but acknowledge that previously passed short-term funding bills are insufficient for the current situation [1][2] - The complexity of the deadlock is exacerbated by the House of Representatives not reconvening, which is necessary for any new funding bill to be approved [2] Group 2 - A new long-term temporary funding bill is being pushed, which may allow Democrats to negotiate for additional demands, including extending health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) [2] - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant disruptions, including flight delays due to staffing shortages at airports, and warnings from the Transportation Secretary about potential airspace closures if safety is compromised [2][3] - Economists warn that continued shutdown could lead to severe disruptions in aviation and logistics during the holiday season, negatively impacting GDP growth and prompting credit rating agencies to reassess U.S. sovereign credit [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury and other federal agencies informed a judge that a temporary order to halt government layoffs does not apply to over 2,000 employees who have already received termination notices [1] - A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order preventing over 30 agencies from executing layoff notices or issuing new ones until a decision on a long-term injunction is made [1] - The judge indicated that unions may have a strong case against the government's authority to use the budget impasse as a basis for permanent layoffs [1] Group 1 - The judge expanded the temporary restraining order to cover more federal employee unions, emphasizing the urgent need to prevent imminent layoffs [1] - Union lawyers accused the Trump administration of narrowly interpreting who should be protected from layoffs [1] - The judge clarified that union members cannot be laid off temporarily, even if the government no longer recognizes these unions as collective bargaining units [1] Group 2 - Disputes arose between union lawyers and government lawyers regarding potential new layoff notices for up to 1,500 employees [2] - The government lawyer claimed no further layoff plans related to the shutdown were known, while union lawyers accused the government of playing "hide and seek" with layoff plans [2] Group 3 - The judge advised caution to government lawyers to avoid violating the temporary restraining order [3] - Since the shutdown began on October 1, the Treasury has issued 1,377 layoff notices, but these were claimed not to fall under the categories specified in the judge's order [3] - Layoffs at the Treasury primarily affected the IRS, including IT personnel and employees from the large business and international divisions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].