Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings emphasizes the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a key factor in maintaining the United States' sovereign credit rating [1] Group 1 - In October of the previous year, Standard & Poor's also identified the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a critical support for the U.S. sovereign credit rating [1] - On January 13, the European Central Bank published a statement on its official website, signed by the ECB President and central bank leaders from over ten countries, including the UK, Canada, and Brazil, expressing support for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed's "independence" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Fitch Ratings considers the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a key factor in maintaining the United States' AA+ sovereign credit rating [1] - Prior to Fitch's statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell disclosed that he received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice, indicating that federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation against him [1] - Last October, another credit rating agency, S&P Global Ratings, also identified the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a critical support for maintaining the U.S. sovereign credit rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings considers the "independence" of the Federal Reserve as a key factor in maintaining the United States' AA+ sovereign credit rating, especially in light of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been a contentious issue, with former Fed Chairs and other economic officials condemning attempts to undermine it through judicial means [1] - Analysts from Jefferies Group and Morgan Stanley have expressed skepticism about the Fed's true independence, suggesting that political pressures have always been present and are increasing [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Powell's investigation has triggered a "sell-off" in U.S. assets, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices, which reached a historical high of over $4600 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the situation reflects a growing perception that U.S. assets are becoming less attractive, with the country appearing more predatory [2] Group 3: Political Implications - There are concerns that any successor to Powell who does not align with former President Trump's wishes may face criminal prosecution, highlighting the political risks associated with the Fed's leadership [2] - Signs suggest that Powell may resist stepping down, with potential delays in the Senate's confirmation of a new Fed Chair [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices showed volatility, initially breaking through $4,640/oz with a daily increase of 3.09%, but later fell below $4,600/oz with a daily decrease of 0.33%, and further dropped below $4,590/oz with a daily decline of 0.58% [1][2][3] - Spot gold also experienced fluctuations, breaking through $4,620/oz with a daily increase of 2.45%, then falling below $4,590/oz with a daily decrease of 0.20%, and subsequently dropping below $4,580/oz with a daily decline of 0.39% [4][5][6] - New York silver initially broke through $86/oz with a daily increase of 8.41%, but later fell below $84/oz with a daily decrease of 1.35%; spot silver mirrored this trend, breaking through $86/oz with a daily increase of 7.62%, then dropping below $84/oz with a daily decline of 1.41% [7][8][9][10] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Nickel's continuous main contract saw a daily decrease of 2%, currently reported at ¥138,660 [11] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - Brent crude oil broke through $64/barrel with a daily increase of 1.06% [12] - U.S. natural gas futures continued to rise, initially increasing over 5.00% to $3.328/million BTU, then over 6.00% to $3.360/million BTU, followed by over 7.00% to $3.392/million BTU, and ultimately rising over 8.00% to $3.423/million BTU [13][14][15][16] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - Federal Reserve's Williams indicated that there is no need for short-term interest rate adjustments and stated that inflation caused by tariffs is primarily borne by Americans [17][18] - A group of over ten former financial officials criticized the Trump administration's criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, including several former Fed Chairs, Treasury Secretaries, and White House economic advisors; this action is seen as an unprecedented attack on the Fed's independence [19][20] - White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that Trump did not instruct Justice Department officials to investigate Powell [21] - The U.S. Treasury urged some foreign finance ministers to enhance their supply chain resilience [22] - Fitch stated that it will continue to monitor the evolution of governance conditions, including "institutional checks and balances," when assessing the U.S. sovereign credit rating [23]

Core Viewpoint - Scope Ratings indicates that the new legal challenges against the Federal Reserve initiated by the Trump administration threaten the independence of the Fed and complicate the responsibilities of the next Fed chair [1] Group 1: Impact on Credit Rating - The criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell is cited as a significant factor that led Scope to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA-, placing it at the same level as France [1] - Scope's downgrade reflects a more pessimistic view of the U.S. compared to major rating agencies, with the U.S. rating now two notches lower than that of Moody's and other mainstream agencies [1] Group 2: Political and Legal Pressures - The legal actions faced by the Federal Reserve intensify the political and legal pressures on this critical pillar of the U.S. governance system, affecting its independence and credibility [1] - Eiko Sievert, Executive Director of Scope Sovereign and Public Sector, emphasizes that these pressures are a primary negative factor in the U.S. sovereign rating downgrade [1]

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing an unprecedented shutdown, potentially becoming the longest in history, which began on October 1 [1] - The shutdown is expected to have significant negative impacts on the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors like aviation, food, and healthcare, raising the risk of an economic hard landing [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1-2 percentage points in Q4, with potential losses of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [2] - Consumer confidence is likely to be directly impacted, with delayed payments to federal employees and contractors exacerbating the situation, especially if the shutdown extends into the holiday season [2] - The shutdown poses a threat to U.S. sovereign credit ratings, with agencies like Scope Ratings downgrading the U.S. rating from "AA" to "AA-" due to deteriorating public finances and rising debt levels [3][4] - The shutdown has created a data vacuum, complicating economic assessments and policy decisions, which could lead to increased market volatility and uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths [5][6] - The liquidity tightening caused by the shutdown has led to a significant reduction in the Federal Reserve's reserve balances, further straining financial conditions and increasing borrowing costs [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its sixth week, tying the historical record, with election results in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia seen as pivotal for changing the political dynamics in Washington and potentially breaking the budget deadlock [1] - Republican leaders express optimism about reaching an agreement to end the shutdown, but acknowledge that previously passed short-term funding bills are insufficient for the current situation [1][2] - The complexity of the deadlock is exacerbated by the House of Representatives not reconvening, which is necessary for any new funding bill to be approved [2] Group 2 - A new long-term temporary funding bill is being pushed, which may allow Democrats to negotiate for additional demands, including extending health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) [2] - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant disruptions, including flight delays due to staffing shortages at airports, and warnings from the Transportation Secretary about potential airspace closures if safety is compromised [2][3] - Economists warn that continued shutdown could lead to severe disruptions in aviation and logistics during the holiday season, negatively impacting GDP growth and prompting credit rating agencies to reassess U.S. sovereign credit [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating is an understatement of the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, as it does not account for the potential risk of the U.S. printing dollars to buy back its own debt [1] Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which raises concerns about the risk associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Dalio emphasizes that the downgrade fails to consider the implications of the U.S. potentially printing money to repurchase its own debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has led to a significant sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in bond yields [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - On September 19, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged, briefly exceeding 5% [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also surpassed 4.5% during the same trading session [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Financial executive Max Gokhman indicated that the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation makes the credit rating downgrade unsurprising [1] - Bloomberg analysis suggests that rising Treasury yields may heighten market concerns regarding the U.S. dollar [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen back to levels close to those seen in April [1] - Sentiment indicators among options traders have dropped to the most pessimistic levels in five years [1]