Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating is an understatement of the risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, as it does not account for the potential risk of the U.S. printing dollars to buy back its own debt [1] Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which raises concerns about the risk associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Dalio emphasizes that the downgrade fails to consider the implications of the U.S. potentially printing money to repurchase its own debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has led to a significant sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in a sharp increase in bond yields [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - On September 19, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged, briefly exceeding 5% [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also surpassed 4.5% during the same trading session [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Financial executive Max Gokhman indicated that the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation makes the credit rating downgrade unsurprising [1] - Bloomberg analysis suggests that rising Treasury yields may heighten market concerns regarding the U.S. dollar [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen back to levels close to those seen in April [1] - Sentiment indicators among options traders have dropped to the most pessimistic levels in five years [1]

当地时间周一， 美股三大指数低开高走，收盘由跌转为小幅上涨 ，道指涨 0.32% ，纳指涨 0.02% ，标普 500 指数涨 0.09% ，医药、贵金属板 块涨幅居前，诺瓦瓦克斯医药涨超 15% ，联合健康涨超 8% ， Moderna 涨超 6% ，美国黄金公司涨超 5% ，埃氏金业、金田、吉利德科学、渤 健公司涨超 3% 。太阳能、汽车制造、油气板块跌幅居前，第一太阳能跌超 7% ，墨菲石油跌超 2% 。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌 0.17% ，哔哩哔哩跌近 5% ，小鹏汽车跌超 3% ，理想汽车、蔚来跌超 1% ，金山云涨超 2% ，拼多多、京东涨幅不足 1% 。 这是穆迪宣布下调美国主权信用评级后的首个交易日。 上周五，穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa 下调至Aa1。自此，美国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了最高的Aaa等级。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特 称这一决定是"滞后的"，他表示 "别搞错了，美国国债是地球上最安全的标的。没有哪个国家比美国更值得信 赖，所以穆迪爱怎么评就怎么评。" 尽管穆迪下调美国主权信 ...

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which may impact investor confidence and market stability [1] - The yield on U.S. long-term bonds has increased, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk [1] - The analysis focuses on identifying key levels for gold prices in light of these developments [1]

图 / 新华社 据央视新闻报道，当地时间1 6日，美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔向员工发送的一份 备忘录显示， 美联储计划在未来几年内裁减约1 0%的员工。 这一举措旨在与总统特朗普精简 联邦政府的整体政策保持一致。 美股收涨，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级 周五（5月1 6日），美国股市高开高收，三大指数集体收升， 标普连涨第五天，道指收复年 内所有跌幅。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0 . 7 8%，年内变化由跌转涨，该指数今年一度累跌约 1 4%。 据 央 视 新 闻 报 道 ， 国 际 信 用 评 级 机 构 穆 迪 1 6 日 宣 布 ， 由 于 美 国 政 府 债 务 和 利 率 支 付 比 例 增 加， 该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aa a下调至Aa 1， 同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负 面"调整为"稳定"。 来 源 | 2 1财经客户端、央视新闻、财联社 SFC 本期编辑 刘雪莹 21君荐读 周线上看， 道指本周累涨3 . 4 1%，标普累涨5 . 2 7%，纳指累涨7 . 1 5%。 纳指领涨主要源于科 技股表现强劲，英伟达本周累涨1 6 . 0 7%，Me t a累涨8 . 0 8%，苹果累 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that the federal government's cash reserves and means to control debt within the legal limit may run out by August, urging Congress to act before the mid-July recess to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [1][2][4] Group 1: Debt Ceiling and Government Operations - The U.S. reached its current debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion in early January and has been using "extraordinary measures" to avoid default [1][2] - Most extraordinary measures have been exhausted as of April 30, with remaining funds only sufficient to support operations until June or July [3][4] - If Congress does not act to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury may face a situation where it cannot meet all government obligations by August [2][3] Group 2: Political Challenges - Republican lawmakers are attempting to pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, but political difficulties are anticipated in voting on the debt ceiling [1][6] - The Trump administration is looking to combine the debt ceiling increase with fiscal spending bills, aiming to raise the limit to $41 trillion [6] - Historical conflicts between Democrats and Republicans over the debt ceiling have made negotiations increasingly complex, with divisions also present within the Republican party [6] Group 3: Credit Rating and Economic Implications - The inability to raise the debt ceiling could severely damage the U.S. financial system and weaken its global leadership [4] - Credit rating agencies have previously downgraded U.S. sovereign credit ratings due to high debt levels, and further downgrades could occur if the debt ceiling is not addressed [4][5] - A potential default could lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government and a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset, impacting the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [5]