政治化货币政策

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8月26日特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克的解读
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-08-26 06:54
东方金诚宏观研究 8 月 26 日特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克的解读 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件:当地时间 2025 年 8 月 25 日,美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上高调 宣布,已签署文件解除美联储理事丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)的职务,且"立即生效"。这一重 大政治行动引发了全球对美联储独立性、美国货币政策未来走向以及金融市场稳定的深切关 注。特朗普在声明中援引美国宪法第二条和 1913 年《联邦储备法》的相关条款,称有"足够理 由"撤销库克职务,并指责她在金融事务中存在"欺诈性和潜在犯罪性行为"。 丽莎·库克是民主党提名的美联储理事,其任期至 2038 年,且在 2022 年拜登政府任命时 曾引发共和党强烈反对。作为首位担任这一职位的非裔女性,她的职位一直具有标志性意义。 在货币政策立场上,库克被视为中性偏鸽派,她强调政策应由经济数据驱动,尤其是劳动力市 场和通胀趋势。她支持逐步降息,但主张谨慎行事,以防通胀反弹或经济过热。2025 年 5 月, 库克支持维持利率不变,并表示由于劳动力市场更具韧性且通胀顽固,美联储在进一步降息时 应更加谨慎。 对此,东方金诚解读如下: 特朗普解除 ...
巨富金业:特朗普翻旧账再掀风暴,美联储独立危机与黄金市场博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 09:21
Group 1 - The core issue of Trump's recent criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is the budget overrun of the Fed's headquarters renovation project, which increased from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion due to rising material costs and construction delays [3][4] - Trump's administration is using this budget overrun as a basis to accuse Powell of "misusing public funds" and has called for a congressional investigation [3] - Legal experts are debating the validity of Trump's threats to dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that the President can only remove the Fed Chairman for "legal reasons" such as misconduct or crime, and historically no President has successfully dismissed a Fed Chairman [4] Group 2 - Trump's tariff policies are significantly influencing Federal Reserve decision-making, with the Fed's Beige Book indicating that businesses across the U.S. are facing "moderate to significant cost pressures" due to tariffs, particularly in manufacturing and construction [5] - Despite market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, Powell indicated that the Fed would have acted sooner if not for the inflationary pressures caused by tariffs [5] - The rising inflation pressures are causing the Fed to delay rate cuts, which has led to a rebound in the dollar index and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, putting short-term pressure on gold prices [5] Group 3 - The gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "safe-haven demand" and "policy expectations," with spot gold fluctuating between $3,300 and $3,370 per ounce [6] - Trump's pressure on the Fed has triggered a chain reaction in financial markets, with U.S. stock indices experiencing volatility due to rumors of Powell's potential dismissal [8] - Concerns from Wall Street executives about the implications of interfering with the Fed's independence highlight the potential long-term risks to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [8]