12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率再降25个基点，这是今年9月以来的第三次降息，累计降幅 已达75个基点。 对这次25个基点的降幅，特朗普公开炮轰"力度太小"。更关键的是，5个月后美联储主席将迎来换届， 而特朗普的选人标准只有一个："忠于我的降息主张"。曾被视为热门人选的白宫经济委员会主任哈西 特，即便表态"提前定利率路径不负责任"，也难掩其政策倾向。 这意味着什么？2026年的美联储政策可能彻底"脱锚"，从"看数据降息"转向"看政治降息"。彭博社早已 预警，即便美联储继续降息，美国10年期国债收益率仍在逆势上涨，债券市场用脚投票，担心这种"政 治化降息"最终会引爆通胀。对中国普通人来说，这意味着全球最主要的"钱袋子"可能无序放水，我们 的资产必须提前找好"避风港"。 多数人盯着"25个基点"的数字，却忽略了会议公报里的关键一句："将购买400亿美元短债，维持银行体 系流动性"。这可不是简单的降息，而是"降息+扩表"同时启动——一边降低借钱成本，一边直接往市场 撒钱。 纽约联储已明确，未来30天就会动手买债，明年一季度这种"放水"力度还会保持高位。短期流动性瞬间 泛滥的结果，就是美国长债收益率飙至16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is raising concerns about the potential politicization of interest rate cuts and the independence of the Fed [1][2] Group 1: Market Expectations and Concerns - There is a prevailing market expectation that even if the Fed initiates rate cuts, it will primarily lower short-term rates while long-term yields may rise due to inflation concerns [1] - Concerns about a "politicized" rate cut may overlook the economic rationale for such a move, as sufficient data could support significant rate cuts without triggering panic in long-term rates [2] Group 2: Traditional Monetary Policy Limitations - The effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools is diminishing, as changes in the federal funds rate have a long and variable transmission path, making their impact difficult to assess [3] - Many entities have locked in long-term low rates since the zero interest rate era, reducing their sensitivity to changes in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Unconventional Policy Options - The government may consider unconventional measures to directly intervene in long-term rates if traditional tools prove ineffective [4] - A potential strategy could involve a significant one-time rate cut of 100 basis points, coupled with a commitment to maintain rates unless substantial data changes occur [5] Group 4: Addressing Inflation Data - A strategy to challenge the validity of inflation data could involve highlighting discrepancies in housing cost calculations, which are currently inflating CPI figures [7] - The Cleveland Fed's new indicators suggest that real rent inflation has returned to normal levels, which could help mitigate market fears about inflation [7] Group 5: Operation Twist and Other Measures - Reinitiating "Operation Twist" could be a key method to lower long-term rates by selling short-term bonds and buying long-term ones, significantly increasing the Fed's holdings in the long-term bond market [8] - Other disruptive options may include yield curve control (YCC) and re-evaluating U.S. gold reserves, which could generate substantial accounting gains and shift market focus [9]