记者丨胡慧茵 编辑丨张星 受日本政府力推积极的财政政策、主张保持宽松货币政策等因素的影响，日本连日遭受股债汇"三杀"。 11月21日，据环球时报报道，日本政府正在制定一项规模超过20万亿日元的经济刺激方案。经济刺激计划震动市场，日本国债收益率已持续多 日大幅走高，与其反向变动的债券价格正不断走低，日本国债被市场抛售。与此同时，日本汇市和股市也同步承压。其中，日元兑美元持续跌 破157区间，日经225指数也跌穿49000点。 事实上，日本政府正陷入两难抉择。一方面，日本三季度经济出现萎缩，日本政府冒着债务负担加重的压力推出庞大的经济刺激计划；另一方 面，财政扩张叠加市场对日本央行推迟加息的预期，会进一步削弱日元，而日元贬值又会反过来推高进口商品成本，与日本政府通过补贴来缓 解通胀痛苦的做法背道而驰。 图源：新华社 "当前中日经贸的不确定性增强，叠加日本经济在美国关税政策下承压，市场风险情绪上涨。"复旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚对21世 纪经济报道记者表示，"早苗经济学"忽视了日本经济的脆弱性，推行巨额政府支出计划，并辅以低利率政策，触发市场对日元和日本国债的抛 售。 在日本长期国债和日元承压的背景下，日本 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市场展望 251117 摘要 美国经济 2026 年上半年或略有放缓，但 AI 投资将提供支撑，下半年逐 步修复，2027 年通胀趋稳，生产率显著提升。美联储倾向鸽派，预计 降息至 3%-3.25%后观望，新任主席或更注重货币政策保增长。 美国政府采取高增长、高通胀策略化解债务，类似二战后模式，通过收 益率曲线控制压低利率，大规模财政刺激鼓励经济增长，大规模 AI 基建 投资以及持续强劲的财政刺激措施。 中国 2026-2027 年将从通缩过渡到低通胀，财政政策或下半年加码应 对房地产挑战，货币政策依赖定向工具。反内卷制度化、统一大市场建 设和房地产改革将促进经济平衡发展。 中国版房利率通过财政贴息降低按揭利率，刺激消费并维护金融稳定， 有望在 2026 年下半年推出。大幅降低按揭利率可以使租金回报率优于 按揭利率，从而改善房地产市场预期。 2026 年看好风险资产，建议做多股票，首选美股，其次是日股和欧股， 低配新兴市场。预计标普 500 指数年底达 7,800 点，年化盈利增长 15%。 预计 2026 年民生中国指数盈利增长 6%，维持 13 倍 ...

Group 1 - Arthur Hayes predicts that if the Federal Reserve resumes large-scale money printing, Bitcoin could rise to $3.4 million by 2028, significantly higher than its current price of approximately $115,000, based on a model estimating over $15 trillion in new credit [1] - SEC Chairman Paul Atkins plans to introduce an "innovation exemption" rule by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch new products without heavy regulatory burdens, while also formulating new regulations for crypto assets [1] - YZi Labs, managed by Binance founder CZ, is considering opening up to external investors and potentially transforming into an external investment fund, with a current portfolio heavily weighted towards digital assets [1] Group 2 - Vitalik Buterin supports the Base L2 model, emphasizing its balance between Ethereum security and user experience, and clarifying that it does not hold user funds, thus preventing theft or withdrawal restrictions [2] - A court in Anhui, China ruled that the transaction of Tether (USDT) violated public order and morals, dismissing a claim for unjust enrichment related to a virtual currency transaction [2]

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes predicts that if the Trump administration implements yield curve control (YCC) and engages in large-scale money printing, the new credit in the U.S. could exceed $15 trillion by 2028, leading to a potential Bitcoin price of $3.4 million, significantly higher than the current price of approximately $115,000. The focus is on the direction rather than precise predictions, emphasizing that Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in a context of ongoing monetary expansion [1]. Group 1 - Hayes forecasts that U.S. new credit could surpass $15 trillion by 2028 under YCC and extensive money printing [1] - The projected Bitcoin price could reach $3.4 million, indicating a substantial increase from its current value [1] - The analysis highlights that the goal is to confirm the direction of the market rather than provide exact predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift towards a fiscal-led era in the U.S. economy, driven by ongoing political pressures on the Federal Reserve and rising inflation due to tariffs, which may lead to gold replacing the dollar as the primary store of value [1][4]. Group 1: Economic and Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38% as of the end of August, marking its best performance since 1979, positioning it as one of the strongest asset classes for the year [1]. - The U.S. government's approach to the Federal Reserve is a significant factor in gold's recent rise and the dollar's continued weakness [1][2]. - The labor market data indicates a more severe economic slowdown than expected, while inflation data remains complex and concerning [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence and Political Pressure - The struggle for control over the Federal Reserve has significant implications for gold and the dollar, with President Trump’s actions raising unprecedented legal and constitutional questions regarding presidential power and central bank independence [2][3]. - The dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member due to alleged mortgage fraud has sparked concerns about the independence of the Fed, which has historically not seen such dismissals since its establishment in 1913 [2][3]. - The current political climate may lead to a more politicized Federal Reserve, potentially transforming it into a tool for the White House [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Gold Demand - Inflation risks are increasingly driven by monetary and fiscal policies rather than demand, which is favorable for gold [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity costs due to tariffs is expected to increase inflationary pressures, further boosting gold demand as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [3][4]. - The potential for negative real interest rates, driven by fiscal policies and regulatory easing, may enhance gold's appeal as a store of value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Global Financial System - The article suggests that the current dollar-centric global financial system may become unsustainable, with a shift towards gold as a neutral reserve asset [4][6]. - The increasing trust in gold over fiat currencies is evidenced by central banks accumulating gold reserves, highlighting its role as a stable alternative in a changing monetary landscape [4][5]. - The anticipated economic policies, including the "Great and Beautiful" Act and tax cuts, are expected to stimulate the economy, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The "History of Overseas Central Bank Bond Purchases" series systematically analyzes key stages of bond - purchase policies of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the European Central Bank. Their policies have similarities and differences in approach, implementation timing, and scale [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's bond - purchase policies evolved from traditional to innovative tools. The Bank of Japan was a pioneer in unconventional monetary policies, starting quantitative easing in 2001. The Federal Reserve launched quantitative easing in 2008. The ECB was more cautious about unconventional policies and started full - scale quantitative easing in 2015 [1]. - The bond - purchase policies of the Federal Reserve, ECB, and the Bank of Japan have been complex. The Federal Reserve ended QE in 2014, then had a slow balance - sheet reduction (QT), which was halted early in 2019. It restarted QE in 2022 due to the pandemic and then QT due to high inflation. The ECB stopped APP net purchases in 2018, restarted in 2019, and ended bond - buying in 2022 and started passive QT in 2023. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates and started balance - sheet reduction in March 2024. The Bank of Japan's exit was more cautious and delayed, the Federal Reserve's policy cycle was more flexible, and the ECB's policy shift was more sluggish [2]. - The bond - purchase scales of the three central banks are huge. As of August 20, 2025, the Bank of Japan's scale was 574.8 trillion yen, the Federal Reserve's was $6.5 trillion, and the ECB's was 4.2 trillion euros, accounting for 79.5%, 98.6%, and 69.2% of their total assets respectively. Relative to economic aggregates, the Bank of Japan's balance - sheet expansion was more significant [3]. - The Federal Reserve and the ECB have a wider range of bond - purchase categories. The Federal Reserve mainly buys MBS and Treasury bonds. The ECB's bond - purchase scope includes government bonds, covered bonds, asset - backed securities, and corporate bonds. The Bank of Japan, besides buying Treasury bonds, also buys a large amount of stock ETFs and J - REITs [3]. - The Bank of Japan's YCC policy directly sets an interest - rate ceiling, marking a new stage in monetary policy by shifting from controlling bond - purchase quantity to controlling bond interest rates [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog First Stage (2009 - 2010): First Attempt during the Sub - prime Crisis - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Provide liquidity to the bond market. After the 2008 financial crisis, the euro - area banking system faced a liquidity crisis, especially in the covered - bond market [14][15]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Continuously make small - scale purchases in the primary and secondary markets. In May 2009, the ECB announced the CBPP, buying 600 billion euros of covered bonds from July 2009 to June 30, 2010, with a maximum holding of 611.4 billion euros [16]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The CBPP had a certain boosting effect on the covered - bond market, reducing the yield and spread of bank - issued covered bonds and enhancing bank financing ability. However, due to its limited scale, its impact on the overall bond market and economy was relatively mild [17]. Second Stage (2010 - 2012): Emergency Response during the European Debt Crisis - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Provide liquidity to the bond market. After the Greek debt crisis, market panic spread to peripheral countries, causing a sell - off of their sovereign bonds and a surge in yields. The ECB launched the "Securities Markets Programme" (SMP) to address market liquidity and financing difficulties [22]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Buy sovereign bonds of troubled countries in the secondary market. The SMP aimed to buy public and private - sector bonds in the secondary market without disclosing the quantity, time frame, or target level. It initially focused on Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, then expanded to Italy and Spain. The ECB also sterilized the injected liquidity. In 2011, SMP was restarted and expanded. The SMP's total reached a maximum of 2,195 billion euros by March 5, 2012. In 2011, the ECB launched CBPP2 with a planned scale of 400 billion euros but only bought 164 billion euros. In 2012, the "Outright Monetary Transactions" (OMT) plan was introduced but never activated [23][24]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The SMP had an immediate positive impact on the bond market, reducing the yields of Spanish and Italian bonds. The OMT had an "announcement effect", significantly reducing the yields of Spanish and Italian bonds. However, as the economic recovery was weak, the effectiveness of the SMP decreased [25]. Third Stage (2013 - 2018): Full - scale Quantitative Easing under Persistent Low Inflation - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Implement QE in the euro area. After the European debt crisis, the euro - area economy recovered slowly, with low inflation and high financing costs. The ECB introduced negative interest rates and launched multiple bond - purchase programs [31]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Use a combination of measures. In 2014, the ECB announced CBPP3 and the Asset - Backed Securities Purchase Program (ABSPP). CBPP3 bought covered bonds, with a holding of 2,702 billion euros by the end of 2018. ABSPP bought asset - backed securities, with a holding of 276 billion euros by the end of 2018. In 2015, the Expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) was launched, including the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) and the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). The APP ended net purchases in December 2018, with a cumulative net purchase of about 2.65 trillion euros [32][33][35]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The ECB's large - scale bond purchases led to a significant decline in long - term government bond yields in the euro area. The yields of German 10 - year government bonds fell into negative territory in 2016, and the yields of French bonds also dropped close to zero. The spread between peripheral and core countries generally narrowed [39]. Fourth Stage (2019 - 2023): Emergency Bond - purchase Plan during the Pandemic - **Macro Background and Bond - purchase Policy Goals**: Intervene promptly to maintain financial stability. In 2019, due to economic slowdown and low inflation, the ECB restarted QE. In 2020, the "Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme" (PEPP) was launched to deal with the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic [42]. - **Bond - purchase Method**: Systematically increase purchases. In September 2019, the ECB restarted QE with a monthly purchase of 200 billion euros. In March 2020, an additional 1,200 billion euros of purchases were announced. The PEPP was launched in March 2020 with an initial scale of 7,500 billion euros, which was later expanded to 1.85 trillion euros. The PEPP ended net purchases in March 2022, with a cumulative purchase of about 1.71 trillion euros [43][45]. - **Bond - market Impact Analysis**: The PEPP effectively alleviated market panic, stabilized investor confidence, and reduced excessive market volatility. During the implementation and scale - expansion of the PEPP, the 10 - year bond yields in Europe generally declined. When the purchase speed slowed down, bond yields generally rose [52]. Summary and Insights from Overseas Central Bank Bond Purchases - Similarities and differences exist among the bond - purchase policies of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB in terms of approach, implementation timing, and scale, as detailed in the core viewpoints above [53].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant bullish sentiment towards gold, driven by multiple favorable catalysts including central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][10]. Group 1: Gold Market Sentiment - According to Goldman Sachs, the ratio of bullish to bearish investors in gold is approximately 8 to 1, marking gold as the most favored long position in their survey [2][10]. - The price of spot gold reached a historic high of $3600.18 per ounce on September 5, 2023, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 36.65% [3][5]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, with reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2098 tons) as of the end of August, up by 6,000 ounces (about 1.7 tons) from July [5][4]. - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for fourteen consecutive quarters since Q3 2020, indicating a strategic shift from dollar-denominated assets to physical assets like gold [7][8]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with a 100% probability of a cut in September and a forecast of a total reduction of 75 basis points for 2025 [2][14]. - Analysts suggest that the current economic conditions and political pressures may lead the Fed to adopt extreme measures like yield curve control, further supporting gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [14][15]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs predicts a mid-2026 price of $4000 per ounce, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential repetition of the "Nixon era" in the context of current political pressures on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that these pressures may lead to significant changes in monetary policy, including the adoption of yield curve control (YCC) [2][8]. Group 1: Political Pressure and Historical Parallels - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly urged the Federal Reserve to return to "moderate long-term interest rates," highlighting the need for the Fed to focus on its statutory duties of maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term rates [2][5]. - The current economic challenges faced by the U.S. are compounded by the potential loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, which relies on public trust [6]. - The political motivations reminiscent of the Nixon administration's pressure on the Fed to implement expansive monetary policies are seen as a driving force behind potential changes in current monetary policy [8][10]. Group 2: Yield Curve Control (YCC) as a Policy Tool - Hartnett predicts that the rising global long-term bond yields will compel policymakers to intervene, potentially leading to the implementation of YCC as a means to control government financing costs [10][11]. - The article notes that 54% of respondents in a recent global fund manager survey expect the Federal Reserve to adopt YCC [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett outlines a clear investment strategy based on the anticipated adoption of YCC: going long on bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies while shorting the U.S. dollar [12][15]. - The strategy emphasizes that YCC will artificially lower bond yields, creating significant upside potential for bond prices as economic data shows signs of weakness [13]. - The anticipated monetary policy shift is expected to erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies, making gold and cryptocurrencies attractive as stores of value [14][15]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Risks - The article warns that, similar to the Nixon era, the current period of monetary easing could lead to uncontrollable inflation and market crashes in the future, as evidenced by historical patterns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a return to a "Nixon-era" economic environment in the U.S., driven by political pressure on the Federal Reserve to adopt yield curve control (YCC) as a monetary policy tool, which could create opportunities for gold, digital currencies, and bonds while negatively impacting the dollar [1][2][5]. Group 1: Political Pressure and Historical Parallels - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly urged the Federal Reserve to return to "moderate long-term interest rates," criticizing unconventional policies for exacerbating inequality and threatening the Fed's independence [2][4]. - Hartnett draws parallels between the current situation and the early 1970s Nixon administration, where political pressure led to significant monetary easing [5][7]. - The market perceives Yellen's comments as a signal for the Fed to take a more active role in managing long-term interest rates, indicating a potential major shift in U.S. monetary policy [4][6]. Group 2: Yield Curve Control (YCC) as a Policy Tool - Hartnett predicts that rising global bond yields will force policymakers to intervene, potentially leading to the implementation of YCC to control government financing costs [8][9]. - The current environment shows that risk assets are reacting mildly to rising yields, as the market anticipates central bank intervention [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett recommends a clear trading strategy: go long on bonds, gold, and digital currencies, while shorting the dollar until the U.S. commits to implementing YCC [10]. - The first step involves going long on bonds, as YCC would artificially lower bond yields, creating significant upside potential for bond prices [11]. - The second step is to go long on gold and cryptocurrencies, which serve as hedges against currency devaluation resulting from YCC [12]. - The third step is to short the dollar, as the announcement of unlimited money printing to lower domestic rates would undermine the dollar's international value [13]. Group 4: Long-term Risks - Hartnett warns that the current favorable trading window may lead to significant long-term risks, similar to the inflation and market crash that followed the Nixon-era monetary policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in the U.S. is drawing parallels to the "Nixon era," with political pressure potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt extreme measures like Yield Curve Control (YCC) [1][2][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure and Historical Parallels - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, urging a return to its statutory mission of maintaining "moderate long-term interest rates" [2]. - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, notes that political pressure will likely drive the Fed to shift its policies, reminiscent of the Nixon administration's influence on monetary policy in the early 1970s [2][4]. - Historical context shows that during Nixon's presidency, significant monetary easing led to a decline in the federal funds rate from 9% to 3%, resulting in a devaluation of the dollar and a bull market in growth stocks [2][4]. Group 2: Yield Curve Control (YCC) as a Policy Tool - Hartnett predicts that in response to rising government financing costs, policymakers will resort to measures like Operation Twist, quantitative easing, and ultimately YCC [5][6]. - The global bond market is under significant pressure, with long-term yields in countries like the UK, France, and Japan reaching multi-decade highs, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield tested the psychological level of 5% [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett recommends a clear trading strategy based on the anticipated implementation of YCC: going long on bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while shorting the U.S. dollar [7][9]. - The expectation is that YCC will artificially lower bond yields, creating significant upside potential for bond prices as economic data shows signs of weakness [8]. - The strategy also includes a focus on gold and cryptocurrencies as hedges against currency devaluation, with a historical precedent indicating that such measures could lead to a 10% devaluation of the dollar [9][10]. Group 4: Long-term Risks - While the current trading environment may appear favorable, Hartnett warns of potential long-term risks, drawing parallels to the inflation and market crash that followed the Nixon-era monetary policies [10].