2026 年 3 月 31 日 原木：近强远弱，正套价差走扩 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/3/30 | 2026/3/27 | 2026/3/26 | 2026/3/25 | 2026/3/24 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 826 | 817.5 | 817 | 816 | 823 | 1.0% | 0.4% | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 5467 | 3706 | 3640 | 7468 | 5371 | 47.5% | 2% | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 11387 | 11363 | 11747 | 12096 | 13411 | 0.2% | -15% | | | 2607合约（收盘价） | 823.5 | 817 | 814 | 815 | 821.5 | 0.8% | 0% | | 盘面 | 2607合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report focuses on the log market, stating that log demand is picking up and suggesting a positive spread arbitrage strategy [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The 2605 contract's closing price was 802.5 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 0.4%. Its trading volume was 14,288, a daily increase of 375.9% and a weekly increase of 377%. The open interest was 9,571, a daily increase of 2.9% and a weekly increase of 14%. Similar data is provided for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1] - **Spread Data**: The spread between the spot and 2605 contract was -32.5 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.3% and a weekly increase of 10%. Other spreads such as spot - 2607, 2605 - 2607, etc., also showed various changes [1] - **Spot Market Data**: Different types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets had different price trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market remained at 770 yuan/m³, with no daily or weekly change [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on further optimizing and adjusting real - estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]