期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年03月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：近强远弱，价差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：成本重心抬升，价格宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：成本重心抬升，价格宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场多空情绪持续博弈，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场多空情绪持续博弈，价格震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：下游补库热情发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：下游补库热情发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋宽，煤价回调 | 9 | | 原木：供给回升库存累积，原木价格回调 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 16 日 铁矿石：近强远弱，价差正套 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report focuses on the log market, stating that log demand is picking up and suggesting a positive spread arbitrage strategy [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The 2605 contract's closing price was 802.5 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 0.4%. Its trading volume was 14,288, a daily increase of 375.9% and a weekly increase of 377%. The open interest was 9,571, a daily increase of 2.9% and a weekly increase of 14%. Similar data is provided for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1] - **Spread Data**: The spread between the spot and 2605 contract was -32.5 on March 9, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.3% and a weekly increase of 10%. Other spreads such as spot - 2607, 2605 - 2607, etc., also showed various changes [1] - **Spot Market Data**: Different types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets had different price trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market remained at 770 yuan/m³, with no daily or weekly change [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on further optimizing and adjusting real - estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs is seasonally recovering, and the spread positive arbitrage is in operation [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 800 on March 6, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly change of 0.0%; the trading volume was 3002, a daily decline of 23.3% and a weekly decline of 20%; the open interest was 9299, a daily increase of 1.4% and a weekly increase of 10%. Similar data is presented for the 2607 and 2609 contracts [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between 2605 - 2607 was -2.5 on March 6, 2026, with a daily increase of 150.0% and a weekly change of 0.0%. Other spreads such as 2605 - 2609 and 2607 - 2609 also showed different changes [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed different trends. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 770 on March 6, 2026, with a daily change of 0.0% and a weekly increase of 2.7% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on further optimizing and adjusting real - estate policies, which came into effect on February 26, 2026 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]

原木周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年03月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 行情走势：需求季节性回升，价差正套运行 ◼ 短期：需求季节性回升、港口库存或将高位去库，现货价格稳中偏强，价差正套运行； ◼ 中期：三月供给回升，需求缓慢复苏，港口库存或将高位去库；原木供给参考船期节奏，预计 维持正常水平，需求端地产新开工偏弱，持续拖累原木需求。 资料来源 ： 千里目资讯 、 国泰君安期货研究所 资料来源：千里目资讯、国泰君安期货研究所 730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 元/方 DCE：原木：05合约：收盘价（日） DCE：原木：07合约：收盘价（日） DCE：原木：09合约：收盘价（日） -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 元/方 05-07 05-09 07-09 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 ...