Core Insights - Allianz Group has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from October to December 2025, reflecting complexities in the U.S. economy between persistent inflation and resilient growth [1][2] - The May U.S. CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% but a month-on-month slowdown of 0.1%, indicating potential inflationary pressures despite a temporary cooling [1][2] - The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates, creating a paradox where robust employment supports consumption while raising concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [2][3] Economic Indicators - The forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2025 has been revised down to 1.4%, yet corporate earnings resilience and consumer confidence remain in the expansion zone [3] - The Federal Reserve has raised its core PCE forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, aligning with Allianz's view on the risks of transitory shocks evolving into persistent inflation [2][3] Market Reactions - Following Allianz's adjustment, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.27%, while the euro fell to 1.1490, indicating market pricing for a later-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to 4.1%, reflecting a rare combination of a strong dollar and rising bond prices amid economic slowdown concerns [3][4] Asset Allocation - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 23 tons in the third week of June, contrasting sharply with the previous surge when gold prices exceeded $2400 [4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have risen from 35% to 58% over the past month, suggesting potential for further adjustments in market pricing [4][5] Global Policy Implications - Allianz's forecast adjustment is triggering global policy ripple effects, with the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S. widening to 225 basis points following the European Central Bank's eighth rate cut [4][5] - Emerging markets are experiencing increased capital flow uncertainty, with significant foreign capital outflows from Brazil and India, totaling $4.7 billion, the highest since November 2024 [4][5] Structural Risks - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is leading to a reconfiguration of global asset pricing models, particularly in light of potential new tariff policies from the U.S. government [5] - The tension between inflation targets and economic realities is compressing the Federal Reserve's policy space, highlighting structural risks that may be obscured by current economic resilience [5]

市场普遍认为周四凌晨美联储会议的结果已无悬念，预测美联储维持利率不变的概率超过99%，但一些 专家担忧美联储将"错过最佳行动时机"。 罗兰和米斯金预计，美联储可能等到8月杰克逊霍尔会议才会释放明确信号，周四的会议或下调核心 PCE通胀预期但维持实际GDP预估。他们警告："依赖数据的美联储若持续观望关税影响数月，终将重 蹈政策滞后的覆辙"。 道富环球顾问首席经济学家莫库塔（Simona Mocuta）主张今夏降息以维系经济增长，当前情境与2024 年9月紧急降息前如出一辙。 她上月接受采访时指出："尽管存在关税风险，但劳动力市场和整体经济比一年前脆弱得多"。联邦雇员 裁减等负面因素尚未体现在数据中，过晚降息可能加剧衰退风险。 目前市场定价反映2025年降息1-2次、2026年再降2次，但多位市场专家对此发出警示。 文艺复兴宏观研究经济主管杜塔（Neil Dutta）表示，虽不预期通胀反弹，但劳动力市场显露的疲态更 令人忧心：失业救济申请持续增加、招聘速率放缓、薪资停滞。3月美联储预测2026年底失业率为 4.3%，如今市场共识已上调至4.6%。 杜塔周一在研讨会上强调："根据失业率走势，他们本应为2026年规划 ...