Core Insights - Allianz Group has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from October to December 2025, reflecting complexities in the U.S. economy between persistent inflation and resilient growth [1][2] - The May U.S. CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% but a month-on-month slowdown of 0.1%, indicating potential inflationary pressures despite a temporary cooling [1][2] - The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates, creating a paradox where robust employment supports consumption while raising concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [2][3] Economic Indicators - The forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2025 has been revised down to 1.4%, yet corporate earnings resilience and consumer confidence remain in the expansion zone [3] - The Federal Reserve has raised its core PCE forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, aligning with Allianz's view on the risks of transitory shocks evolving into persistent inflation [2][3] Market Reactions - Following Allianz's adjustment, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.27%, while the euro fell to 1.1490, indicating market pricing for a later-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to 4.1%, reflecting a rare combination of a strong dollar and rising bond prices amid economic slowdown concerns [3][4] Asset Allocation - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 23 tons in the third week of June, contrasting sharply with the previous surge when gold prices exceeded $2400 [4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have risen from 35% to 58% over the past month, suggesting potential for further adjustments in market pricing [4][5] Global Policy Implications - Allianz's forecast adjustment is triggering global policy ripple effects, with the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the U.S. widening to 225 basis points following the European Central Bank's eighth rate cut [4][5] - Emerging markets are experiencing increased capital flow uncertainty, with significant foreign capital outflows from Brazil and India, totaling $4.7 billion, the highest since November 2024 [4][5] Structural Risks - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is leading to a reconfiguration of global asset pricing models, particularly in light of potential new tariff policies from the U.S. government [5] - The tension between inflation targets and economic realities is compressing the Federal Reserve's policy space, highlighting structural risks that may be obscured by current economic resilience [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Internationally, the joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with both sides canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending the implementation of 24% of tariffs, and China suspending or canceling non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will help foreign trade enterprises. Fundamentally, the copper import TC spot index continues to decline, and the supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The overall supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. Demand may weaken as downstream consumption approaches the off - peak season, and the inventory reduction rate is slowing down. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars emerging above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to hold a light position with a slightly bullish view on the volatile market, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,556.50 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 181,940 lots, down 5,790 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai copper futures are 10,832 lots, up 5,188 lots. The LME copper inventory is 190,750 tons, down 1,025 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 80,705 tons, down 8,602 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 29,157 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,275 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,505 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 115 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 99 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 185 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 23.87 US dollars/ton, down 25.32 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.39 million tons, up 21.10 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,760 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,460 yuan/metal ton, up 160 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the South is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it is 750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 124.80 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 32,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,190 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 212.52 million tons, down 14.76 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 19,904.17 billion yuan, up 9,184.43 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,197,199,900 pieces, down 80,202,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.87%, down 7.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.22%, down 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 14.67%, down 0.0070 percentage points; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.86, up 0.0523 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials are cautious about interest - rate actions due to policy uncertainties. Goldman Sachs adjusts the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raises the Q4 2025 US economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowers the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%, while also lowering the core PCE inflation forecast. In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with significant growth in new - energy vehicle production and sales. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to both sides modifying tariff policies, and China will suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. The Ministry of Commerce will support foreign trade enterprises [2]

Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, Nasdaq up 4.35%, and S&P 500 up 3.26%, marking the highest closing levels since March [4][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 5.40%, reaching a new high since April 4, driven by strong performances from popular Chinese stocks [3][6] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve's second-quarter GDP real-time forecast increased to 2.42%, up from 2.34% the previous week, providing a favorable environment for major stock ETFs [4] - U.S. tariff revenue in April soared to a record $16.3 billion, an 86% increase from March's $8.75 billion and more than double the $7.1 billion from the same month last year [4] - Cumulative tariff revenue for the 2025 fiscal year reached $63.3 billion, over 18% higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks saw substantial increases, with Amazon rising over 8%, Meta over 7%, and Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia all gaining over 5% [3][5] - Speculation surrounds Apple's potential price increase for the upcoming iPhone 17 series, with the current iPhone 16 series starting at $799 [5][6] Chinese Stocks - Notable gains in Chinese stocks included WeRide up over 27% and XPeng and Bilibili both rising nearly 8% [3][6] - WeRide announced a strategic partnership with Uber to expand autonomous Robotaxi services in 15 new cities over the next five years, with Uber committing an additional $100 million investment [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw collective gains, with Pfizer and Novo Nordisk both rising over 3% following Trump's signing of an executive order aimed at lowering prescription drug prices [7][8] - The executive order mandates that pharmaceutical companies provide "most favored nation pricing" to the U.S. market, aligning drug prices with those in other developed countries [8][9]