智通财经APP获悉，对于怀疑美国股市在经历新一轮大涨之势后还能上涨多少的那些立场较谨慎的华尔街机构投资者们来说，屡创历史新高的美国股 票市场的一个愈发占据主导性质的非机构力量仍然明显偏于看涨立场。这些自2025年4月全球股市罕见暴跌以来为美股强劲的长期牛市提供重大且持续 的增量看涨驱动力的投资者们，并不像历史数据所显示的那样归功于各大机构资金，而是基本属于"散户型投资者"。 "市场似乎更多地由资金流动而非估值驱动，因此——只要散户投资者们仍然非常愿意并能够持续将资金投入股票市场，这对美股市场来说无疑是个非 常积极的牛市信号。"来自Interactive Brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。 截至目前，这一信号依然是绿色的积极增长颜色。自2026年年初以来(累计四个交易日统计数据)，散户投资者们已买入价值约101亿美元的美国股票 ——主要通过交易所交易基金(即指数型ETF)——这一数据远超过去12个月每周五个交易日约65亿美元的平均股票买入水平，摩根大通的一项统计数据 显示。 这波新一轮股票买入浪潮跟随了2025年散户型投资者们的无比辉煌表现。根据摩根大通的统计数据，2025年全年度的散户 ...

黄金作为备受追捧的投资品，小到我们的个人理财账户，大到家庭资产配置组合，其实都该有一席之 地。尤其是在传统储蓄的收益率持续下行、储蓄概念不断扩大的当今，对于我们很多的"囤金者"来说， 储蓄黄金，不再是一道选择题，而是必答题。 近期黄金的走势也比较给力，配得上对它充满信仰的囤金者的拥戴——以我们国内金价的SGE黄金9999 为例，年内上涨超58%，价格距离10月年内最高点仅一步之遥，而且已经是近一个月的新高点了。 （Wind，2025.12.17） 照例盘一盘近期与金价有关的重要消息，以及在这个位置如何看待黄金交易。 弱美元逻辑重回轨道 要说近一个多月金价为何又能震荡上涨，地缘政治的影响可能较为一般，弱美元、机构囤金是更加强劲 的理由。 我们之前反复提到，目前的美元处于降息周期内，对金价整体有利。但并不是说降息区间就会一直涨， 偶尔也会因为美元指数阶段走强而导致金价下跌（黄金以美元计价，二者通常呈现负相关），比如在10 月下旬到11月初，美元指数快速上行，金价大跌；而最近一个月美元指数重回下降态势，黄金也迎来反 弹。 众央行囤金仍在持续 再说机构囤金。这里的机构，最"有钱"的当属一众央行了。 先说我们自己。与之 ...

摘要北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎 司，目前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附 近。 北京时间周四(12月18日)亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.367附近，现货黄金开盘于4340.68美元/盎司，目 前交投于4332.10美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于974.48元/克附近，沪金主力交投于980.00元/克附近。 上一交易日美元指数收涨0.18%，报99.319，现货黄金收涨0.81%，报4337.16美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属纷纷上涨：现货白银收涨3.82%，报66.17美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.62%，报 1896.20美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.52%，至1646.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月17日COMEX黄金库存1119.46吨，较前一交易日保持不变；COMEX白银库存14088.35吨，较前一 交易日减少27.85吨。 09:00中国11月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比 10:00美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话 1 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 期货市场 | 979.720 | 8.3↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 15512 | +846.00↑ | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | | 197,105.00 | +899.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 18,292.00 | +938.00↑ | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 275,889 ...

贵金属期货日报 2025/12/15 | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 970.660 12.5↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14793 | | -99.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 203,038.00 -836.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 7,206.00 | | -196.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 439,719.00 +147983.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 2,357,087.00 | | +630503.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 820,921 | | 36893↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 0.00 0.00↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,638.00 | | -83.00↓ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -970.66 -96 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.341, while spot gold opened at $4277.76 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4216.29 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading around 963.50 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at 968.84 CNY per gram [1] Price Movements - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index decrease by 0.29% to 98.357, while spot gold increased by 1.22% to $4205.38 per ounce. Other precious metals showed mixed results: spot silver rose by 2.84% to $63.54 per ounce, platinum increased by 2.30% to $1693.40 per ounce, and palladium gained 1.08% to $1492.50 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of December 11, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1123.32 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 14177.51 tons, a decrease of 18.65 tons [2] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 1050.83 tons, up by 4.01 tons from the previous day. SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 16083.16 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut has significantly increased, and the precious metals market has maintained a strong performance. The "short squeeze" in the silver market has intensified, driving the recent accelerated rise in silver prices. The slowdown in the US core PPI growth rate and the cooling of the employment market have boosted market sentiment. Although geopolitical risks have eased to some extent, the mainstream market expectation of a rate cut in December is likely to continue to boost market bullish sentiment. The tight inventory of physical silver may exacerbate the short - squeeze in the short term. Any macro data or news falling short of expectations may amplify the callback risk in the precious metals market. In the long - term, the US debt pressure makes gold an attractive asset, and central bank gold purchases provide structural support for gold prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 963.28 yuan/gram, up 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 13,278 yuan/kilogram, up 551 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 342,979 lots, up 153,266 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,703,384 lots, up 1,072,037 lots. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 205,325 lots, up 3,196 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 38,724 lots, down 8,486 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 90,873 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 573,702 kilograms, up 14,820 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 958.46 yuan/gram, up 10.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,303 yuan, up 685 yuan [2] 3.3 ETF and CFTC Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,610.54 tons, up 28.21 tons. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 203,916 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC was 43,181 contracts, down 3,036 contracts [2] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] 3.5 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.44, down 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.79%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, down 0.86; the CBOE gold volatility index was 22.87, up 0.92. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 77.74, down 0.05 [2] 3.6 Industry News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US - Ukraine talks were "productive". White House official Kevin Hassett hinted that Trump might name the next Fed chair by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs said the Fed would cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a market - priced probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December was 87.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by January next year was 67.5% [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - US November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1st, US JOLTS job openings data on December 2nd, US ADP private sector employment data on December 3rd, and US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

黄金真坚挺啊， 10月21日闪崩后，有不少人看空。比如花旗当时给出的预测是：可能要回调到3800美元/盎司，关键支 撑位在3600美元/盎司。 但实际却是，金价在3886美元/盎司触底，比花旗的预测价高了差不多100美元，现在已经反弹到了4200 美元/盎司。 如果听花旗的预测，死等3800美元/盎司抄底，那基本是要错过这轮反弹。 | 最高：9.591 | 今开:9.558 | 涨停：10.370 | 成交量：151.29万手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低：9.543 | 昨收:9.427 | 跌停 : 8.484 | 成交额:14.48亿 | | 换手 :-- | 市价：9.581 | 单位净值：9.439 | 基金份额：35.22亿 | | 振幅：0.51% | 溢价率:0.04% | 累计净值：3.646 | 资产净值:337.47亿 | | 成立日：2013-11-29 | 净值日期：2025-11-12 | 到期日 : -- | 货币单位：CNY | 01 黄金为啥这么坚挺呢？ 关键是黄金牛市的核心驱动力还在。 回顾前两轮黄金大牛市， 上世纪70年代的黄金牛市，核 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by market conditions and expectations regarding U.S. economic policy [1][2]. - On November 10, 2023, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $9.8, closing at $4,133.2 per ounce, marking a 0.24% increase [1]. - During the trading session, gold prices reached a three-week high of $4,155 per ounce, indicating strong market interest [2]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown may improve market risk appetite, but the anticipated economic impact could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, providing significant support for precious metals [2]. - Despite limited demand for gold jewelry, the demand for gold allocation remains strong, as evidenced by a 4.3-ton increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings on November 11 [2]. - UBS Group forecasts that gold demand in the next two years could reach its strongest level since 2011, with potential for gold prices to rise to $4,700 per ounce due to ongoing political and financial market risks [2]. Group 3 - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.67, closing at $51.075 per ounce, reflecting a 1.33% rise [3].