"鲍威尔的表态比市场预期的更为鸽派，市场显然给出了积极回应，"萨斯奎哈纳国际集团衍生品策略联 席主管克里斯·墨菲表示，"我们看到部分投资者上调对标普500指数ETF的保护仓位，并买入SPDR黄金 ETF的看涨期权价差，作为通胀交易策略的一部分。" 由于市场仍处于"逢低买入"模式，许多策略师推荐标普500指数看跌期权价差;近期，若市场短期内持续 震荡上行，回溯型或重置型看跌期权也被认为会派上用场。但在近期的对冲工具选择中，有一个明显 的"缺席者"：买入芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)的看涨期权——这通常是投资者的常用对冲工 具。 "在当前市场环境下，标普500指数的香草看跌期权或看跌期权价差可能是更可靠的对冲工具，"彭博情 报全球衍生品策略主管坦维尔·桑德胡指出，"此外，标普500指数的波动率偏斜较为陡峭，这有助于降 低看跌期权价差的成本。" 摩根大通策略师上周指出，美国财政赤字以及唐纳德·特朗普对美联储的施压，可能开始对国债和股市 形成双重压制。他们建议采取一种二元交易策略：押注标普500指数年底前跌幅超5%，同时10年期美债 收益率上升0.2%。在欧洲市场， Euro Stoxx 50指数的数字式看跌期 ...

Group 1 - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Nvidia by over 154%, making it the fund's third-largest position [2] - Microsoft saw a holding increase of over 111%, while Google and Meta increased their stakes by over 84% and nearly 90%, respectively, ranking as the sixth, fifth, and seventh largest positions in the fund [2] - Uber's holdings surged by more than five times, and Johnson & Johnson's stake increased by over 667% [2] Group 2 - Bridgewater reduced its positions in Amazon by nearly 6%, AMD by nearly 19%, and PayPal by over 12% [2] - The fund completely exited its positions in Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com [2] - New positions include chip design company Arm, as well as Intuit, EQT, Lyft, and Ulta Beauty [2] Group 3 - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains Bridgewater's largest holding, although the stake was reduced by approximately 21.9% [2] - The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) holdings remained unchanged in the second quarter [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price continues to oscillate, with regional price differences widening. After the U.S. clarified that gold is not subject to tariffs, the price difference between New York gold and London gold converged. The market will focus more on the economic fundamentals, and the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging. The U.S. economy shows signs of stagflation. The short - term gold price remains in an oscillatory state, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - Various gold - related indicators show changes, including a 28.0% change in the domestic basis, a - 49.1% change in the internal - external futures price difference, a 0.8% increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, etc. [12] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.35%, oil prices fell 4.9%, the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.39%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.97% to 98.2, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.28%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.36%, and the VIX index dropped to 15.15 [18][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 2.43%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11%. Real interest rates fluctuated around 1.88%, the gold price rose 1%, the spot commodity index rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index closed down. U.S. and German bonds rebounded, the U.S. - German interest rate spread is 1.59%, the UK Treasury yield is 4.6%, and the Japanese bond yield is 1.49%. The euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, and most non - U.S. currencies appreciated [23][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation rose to 162,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 959 tons. The RMB appreciated slightly, and Shanghai gold was at a discount to the overseas market. Gold and silver closed up, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88.6 [35][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important economic data and events include Japan's market closure on Monday, the U.S. July CPI and 7 - month NFIB small business confidence index and the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate meeting on Tuesday, Germany's July CPI on Thursday, and the U.S. July PPI and initial jobless claims on Friday [38]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rather than supply and demand dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies and Economic Data - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars under taxable codes, effective August 7, leading to significant impacts on the global gold refining center in Switzerland, with an estimated additional tariff cost of about $24 billion [1]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and a drop in ISM manufacturing PMI to a nine-month low, has raised concerns about economic slowdown, further supporting gold prices [1][2]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks continued to favor gold, with a net increase of 22 tons in official gold reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases [2]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 2,300.41 tons by the end of July, marking a continuous nine-month increase [2]. Group 3: ETF Holdings and Market Sentiment - SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 959.64 tons, the highest since September 2022, indicating a growing trend in gold investment [3]. - Domestic gold ETF holdings in China reached 199.505 tons by June 30, with a significant increase of 84.771 tons in the first half of the year [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold prices remains strong, with expectations of continued upward movement due to economic weakness and dovish Federal Reserve policies [4]. - The potential meeting between Trump and Putin in mid-August could impact gold prices, especially if there are substantial developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [4].

Group 1: Ethereum Market Dynamics - Ethereum price surged over 8% on August 9, reaching $4218.2, the highest since December 2021, with a cumulative increase of 200% since April 8 [1][3] - The market capitalization of Ethereum surpassed $500 billion, contributing to a total cryptocurrency market cap that briefly exceeded $4 trillion [3] - Over 100,000 traders experienced liquidations in the last 24 hours, with total liquidation amounting to $408 million [3][4] Group 2: ETF Inflows and Institutional Interest - Significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs were reported, with a total net inflow of $461 million on August 8, led by BlackRock's ETF with $255 million and Fidelity's ETF with $132 million [5] - The total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs reached $23.384 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $9.816 billion [5] - Institutional interest in Ethereum is increasing, with market sentiment described as the highest ever, and aggressive price predictions suggesting Ethereum could reach $10,000 or even $16,000 [5] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - A recent executive order by President Trump allows alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, to be included in 401(K) retirement accounts, potentially opening up $12.5 trillion in retirement funds to these markets [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, which is likely to support gold prices in the near term [1] - As of August 1, the COMEX gold futures contract increased by 2.32% to $3,416 per ounce, while the SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.4% decrease to 953.08 tons [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, which was below the expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the gold industry, covering sectors such as mining and jewelry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiating Linkage C (021674) and A (021673) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and gold holdings may suggest a potential investment opportunity in gold for ordinary investors, but historical trends indicate that central bank actions do not always correlate with gold price movements [2][3]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold Holdings - As of mid-2025, China's foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $3.3 trillion, with gold holdings reaching 73.9 million ounces, marking an increase for eight consecutive months [2]. Historical Context of Gold Prices - Despite central banks increasing gold purchases, gold prices have sometimes declined. For instance, from November 2012 to December 2015, gold prices fell by 37% even as central banks bought more gold [2][3]. - The price of gold has historically experienced significant volatility, often influenced by geopolitical factors and economic conditions rather than solely by central bank actions [3]. Recent Trends in Gold Prices - Since January 2022, domestic gold prices in China rose from 368 yuan per gram to a peak of 825 yuan per gram by April 2025, reflecting a 124% increase, while international gold prices also saw over a 110% rise during the same period [3]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter of 2025, global gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of 123 tons, the largest in three years, indicating that some investors are cashing out [4]. - Domestic retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with significant spikes in trading volume during periods of heightened geopolitical tension [4][5]. Caution for New Investors - The influx of ordinary investors into the gold market may signal that prices have already factored in current uncertainties, suggesting a potential peak in investment demand [5]. - New investors should carefully consider their asset allocation and the associated risks, especially given the high transaction costs and potential for lower returns from short-term gold holdings [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market declined under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tariff concerns, despite the warming of interest - rate cut expectations during the week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term technical pattern is weak and under pressure. The report suggests maintaining the idea of buying on dips [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, gold prices in the precious metals market declined, and silver prices were volatile. Geopolitical tensions eased as the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East calmed down, reducing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The trade tariff deadline was postponed, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund positions: The SPDR Gold ETF's weekly holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 954.82 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's weekly holdings increased by 115.91 tons to 14,866.18 tons. - Short - term fund positions: As of June 24, according to the CFTC report, gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts to 195,004 contracts, and silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 4,227 contracts to 62,947 contracts. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.3 tons to 1,152.3 tons, COMEX silver inventory increased by 112.7 tons to 15,523.5 tons, SHFE gold inventory increased by 69 kg to 18.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 65.43 tons to 1,295.7 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1,357.8 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. - Events: The US Senate will vote on the "Great Beauty" bill, and several Fed officials will give speeches. The COMEX precious metals trading will end early on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday [4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - SHFE gold main contract price was 766.4 yuan/gram, down 1.15%; SGX gold TD price was 763.08 yuan/gram, down 1.32%; CME gold main contract price was 3,286.1 dollars/ounce, down 1.66%. - SHFE silver main contract price was 8,792 yuan/kg, down 0.05%; SGX silver TD price was 8,748 yuan/kg, down 0.28%; CME silver main contract price was 36.165 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%. - CME gold - silver ratio was 90.8641, down 0.61% [6]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 97.2616, down 0.05%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1643, unchanged. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 43,819.27 points, up 1%; WTI crude oil spot price was 65.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.43%. - LmeS copper 03 price was 9,896 dollars/ton, up 1.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 0.7%; 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.01%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.56%, unchanged [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the unexpected performance of gold prices during the recent Israel-Iran conflict, where geopolitical tensions did not lead to the anticipated rise in gold prices, contrary to historical trends [1][2][3] - The London spot gold price briefly reached $3450 per ounce at the onset of the conflict but subsequently fell to around $3330, marking a cumulative decline of 1.87% [1] - The lack of a significant increase in geopolitical risk premium for gold during this conflict is noted as an anomaly compared to historical reactions to similar geopolitical events [1][3] Group 2 - Citibank Research has significantly lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150, reflecting a 10% decrease [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could still challenge $3500 or higher [5] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are still far from the peak levels seen in 2011, indicating that gold has not yet reached a bubble state [5][6] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with one-third of 75 global central banks planning to do so in the next one to two years, which could support gold prices [7] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies may lead to inflationary pressures, with the potential for stagflation risks increasing, which could provide opportunities for gold investment [8] - The dollar's credit crisis is a concern, as the dollar index has dropped by 9.72% this year, prompting investors to shift funds from dollar assets to gold and other safe-haven assets [9] Group 4 - The gold ETF (518800) has seen its scale grow to 18.1 billion, with an increase of over 11 billion this year, indicating active trading and interest in gold investments [10] - For retail investors, gold ETFs may offer better liquidity and preservation compared to physical gold or jewelry, reflecting the overall trend and investment value in the gold market [10]