Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the context of the long - term dollar credit narrative and the continuation of central bank gold - buying trends, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains intact. It is recommended to make long - term layouts on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1,148.10 yuan/gram, down 3.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 22,062 yuan/kilogram, down 194 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai Gold was 105,803 lots, down 1,925 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai Silver was 3,354 lots, up 202 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold was 163,830 lots, down 15,737 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver was 414,009 lots, up 19,026 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 105,420 kilograms, up 510 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 309,974 kilograms, up 58,115 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1,146.45 yuan, down 3.97 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 21,594 yuan, down 706 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.65 yuan/gram, down 0.09 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 468 yuan/gram, down 512 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,077.28 tons, up 3.71 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,539.06 tons, down 115.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 160,145 contracts, up 968 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 23,338 contracts, up 1,078 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total demand for silver in the year was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.85, up 0.03 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 24.23, down 0.70; the CBOE gold volatility index was 30.68, down 1.43. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.31, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 60.10, up 1.25 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump stated that the US military action against Iran was "about to end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received internal instructions to stop the military action [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the energy supply disruption risk caused by the Iran war [2]. - The US February CPI report showed that the overall inflation performance was basically in line with market expectations, but the February inflation data did not fully reflect the upward pressure on international oil prices [2]. - The US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit from the beginning of the fiscal year to February exceeded $1 trillion, but was about 12% lower than the same period in 2025 [2]. 3.6 Option Analysis - For the outer - market gold options, the $5,000 level is the most important lower support, and there is also some defensive strength around $5,100. The main resistance area is between $5,200 and $5,225, with concentrated long - call positions. The Put/Call ratio is generally below 1, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2]. - For the outer - market silver options, the $85 level is the most important long - short balance center, and there is also some defensive strength around $84. There is some resistance around $89, and the expansion of long - call positions at higher strike prices is not obvious, indicating that new bullish drivers are needed for further upward movement. The Put/Call ratio has recently fallen below 1, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index will be released. - On March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders will be released [2].

Macro - In January-February 2026, exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, driven by strong overseas demand, competitive advantages of high value-added products, and a diversified market strategy [5] - Short-term disruptions may arise from the US-Iran conflict and high base effects, but long-term prospects remain optimistic due to China's manufacturing advantages, strong demand from emerging markets, and infrastructure investment needs in Belt and Road countries [5] - Potential easing of US-China relations from Trump's visit to China, along with AI investment demand and EU fiscal support, will further bolster exports [5] Strategy - In March 2026, the industry allocation strategy focuses on growth and balanced styles, with a preference for high valuation sectors [5] - Industries such as power equipment, defense, electronics, and machinery are highlighted as having high scores and potential investment opportunities [5] Metals - Aluminum prices increased by 4.5% to 24,400 CNY per ton, while tungsten prices rose by 15.1% to 919,000 CNY per ton [6] - The new export orders PMI for February was reported at 45.00%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [6] Automotive - In January, domestic passenger car retail sales decreased by 13.9% year-on-year and 31.7% month-on-month, totaling 1.544 million units [7] - Wholesale sales also saw a decline of 6.2% year-on-year and 29.3% month-on-month, amounting to 1.973 million units [7] - New energy vehicle retail sales dropped by 20.0% year-on-year and 55.4% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trends of both Shanghai gold and silver futures are in an upward channel, but they may be approaching the end of the trend. For gold, short - term market may continue to oscillate in the current range to digest the gains, and in the long - term, the weakening US dollar index and potential geopolitical policy risks provide upward space for gold prices. For silver, in the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise due to the expanding supply - demand gap and the weakening US dollar [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the gold main contract rose 3.52% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it sorted in the range of 1,146 - 1,151 yuan/g. The market volatility narrowed, trading was active, and long - position funds continued to increase positions. In the short - term, the market may continue to oscillate, and in the long - term, the weak US dollar and geopolitical risks provide upward space. It is necessary to pay attention to the US dollar trend, US tariff policy, and main position changes [7] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 was in short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It was recommended to buy on dips [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the main contract rose 12.84% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it stabilized in the range of 22,600 - 23,000 yuan/kg. The trading volume increased significantly, and the short - side did not dominate. The continuous supply shortage of global silver and the significant reduction of COMEX inventory provide fundamental support. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to the COMEX silver price, inventory changes, and Fed policy signals [33] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [34] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 was in high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [38] - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 18,000 - 21,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [39] 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [47][49][51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, highlighting price changes, production rates, and economic indicators that may impact investment opportunities and risks in these areas [4][5][6][7][11][12]. Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings saw a slight increase during the Spring Festival period [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for February 2026 is at 48.66, a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $5042 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in January-February is expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -0.73%, rubber at +3.14%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -0.43%, and iron ore at -1.04% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates saw month-on-month changes of -0.16 percentage points, +0.00 percentage points, and -1.3 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide prices unchanged and glass prices up by 1.14% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1880 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is at 73.89% [6] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for January is at 49.20% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.26%, copper at +0.34%, and aluminum at -0.04%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +23.95%, -9.93%, and -0.15% [7] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 59.44%, a month-on-month decrease of 13.32 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached the lowest level since 2018 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1946.84 yuan per ton, up by 0.14% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23100 yuan per ton, down by 0.04%, with a calculated profit of 6063 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down by 0.15% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 100440 yuan per ton, up by 0.34% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 697500 yuan per ton, up by 1.90% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of hot-rolled to rebar is at the lowest level for the same period in five years [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.10 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 300 yuan per ton, down by 70 yuan per ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.09 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 180 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 30 yuan per ton [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in January is at 47.80%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is at 1088.14 points, down by 3.03% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is at 77.80%, up by 0.70 percentage points [11] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the implementation of export licensing management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.36%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at +3.59% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 57.60% and 82.79%, respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]

Real Estate - In January, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 15 core cities increased by 14.3% year-on-year, while the transaction amount of commodity residential properties in 30 core cities was 185.9 billion yuan, down 28.7% year-on-year, with an average transaction price of 24,285 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate expectations and suggests that leading companies may benefit from an optimized competitive structure as supply-side adjustments continue [5][6] Metals - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings saw a slight increase during the Spring Festival period, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards gold [5] - The steel industry is expected to see a strengthening of supply-side adjustments in the short to medium term, as losses for listed steel companies in Q4 2025 approached those of Q3/Q4 2024. The tightening of steel export policies may impact the industry's profitability, which heavily relies on direct and indirect exports [5] Energy Storage - The domestic large-scale energy storage capacity for 2026/2027 is a critical variable in assessing lithium battery demand. Key indicators to monitor include regional coal power capacity pricing, the scale of energy storage project lists, and changes in spot market price differentials [6] - The domestic energy storage industry is entering a phase of healthy development, with leading companies expected to benefit from this trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2026 outlook for the metals and mining sector, focusing on three main themes: persistent safe-haven demand, supply structure changes driving divergence in base metals, and resource security becoming a policy priority [3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold is expected to outperform the S&P 500 again in 2026, with an average price projected around $5,000 per ounce [3][6]. - Silver may experience a modest correction after a strong rally, but its average price is still anticipated to be significantly above market consensus [3][5]. Group 2: Supply Structure Changes - The copper market is expected to tighten, with prices likely to remain above $12,000 per ton, while nickel may see a price drop to around $15,000 due to oversupply unless Indonesia intervenes [4][5]. - The alumina market is projected to see price support from cost curves, with a potential decline limited to about 10% [4]. Group 3: Resource Security - Government funding is driving accelerated development of rare earth resources, with an estimated $10 billion in public sector investment expected [4][5]. - U.S. steel tariffs are likely to remain in place, benefiting domestic producers [4]. Group 4: Mining Companies Outlook - Major mining companies are reflecting a rebound in market risk appetite, with a trend of capital reallocation towards tangible assets [9]. - The structural supply constraints in metals, particularly copper, support price resilience, indicating potential upward revisions in profit forecasts [9]. Group 5: Silver Mining Companies - Silver mining companies, including Fresnillo, are expected to maintain strong performance in 2026, benefiting from high precious metal prices and robust operational execution [11]. - The consensus forecast predicts a 44% year-over-year increase in earnings for silver companies in 2026, based on silver and gold prices of $83 and $4,820 per ounce, respectively [11][12].

Group 1 - The gold and silver market experienced a significant drop on February 12, with gold prices falling from a high of $5099 per ounce to a low of $5044, closing at $5051.57, a decrease of $31 or 0.63% [1][3] - Silver prices also declined, dropping by $0.234 to $82.49 per ounce, a decrease of 0.28%, while the Shanghai silver futures saw a more substantial drop of 1.87% [1][3] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to a concentrated market correction following a substantial increase in gold prices over the past three months, where gold rose over 24% from approximately $375 to over $5000 [3][6] Group 2 - The primary reasons for the sudden drop in gold prices include: 1. Short-term profit-taking by investors, leading to a sell-off after significant gains [6][7] 2. Ongoing hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, which raises concerns about potential interest rate hikes, making gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets [8] 3. A shift in investment focus from gold to other hard assets like copper, resulting in reduced buying pressure for gold and silver [9] Group 3 - The impact of the price drop is significant for various stakeholders: - Investors who bought gold at higher prices are facing losses, while those purchasing gold jewelry may not need to panic as the price fluctuations are less impactful on jewelry [11] - Mining companies like Zijin Mining saw stock price increases, indicating a divergence in market reactions based on asset class [11] - Short-term outlook suggests continued volatility in gold prices due to profit-taking and Fed rate hike concerns, while long-term predictions remain optimistic with potential prices reaching $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to persistent inflation [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - In early 2026, individual investors are significantly accumulating gold to hedge against risks arising from global order fragmentation, leading to record inflows into gold ETFs and increased volatility in the precious metals market [1][6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Investment Trends - Gold ETF investment demand, particularly from Asia, has become a key driver of gold prices in recent months [3]. - In January, global gold ETFs attracted $19 billion in inflows, marking the strongest single month on record, with a 20% increase in total assets under management, reaching a historical high of $669 billion [4]. - The SPDR Gold ETF, the largest physically-backed gold ETF, saw a trading price of $460.67, down 1.4%, but still up over 16% year-to-date [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Price Sensitivity - The strategy of using ETFs to hedge against global disorder and diversify away from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is increasing volatility in the precious metals market [6]. - ETF investors are more sensitive to price changes and market dynamics, leading to potential sell-offs during price corrections, which can significantly impact gold prices [6]. - Recent fluctuations in gold prices included a record closing high of $5,354.80 per ounce on January 29, followed by a sharp decline of about 13% in the subsequent days [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold Prices - Despite potential short-term sell-offs, long-term global investment demand is expected to support higher gold prices, with emerging market central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings [7]. - The current gold bull market is not considered unusual by historical standards, and significant sell-offs have historically interrupted major bull markets [9]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo suggest that the recent price correction is a healthy adjustment following a strong rally, with expectations for gold prices to rise again, projecting a year-end target of $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, indicating at least a 20% upside from current levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a historic crash on January 30, 2026, with silver prices plummeting 36% and gold prices dropping over 12%, marking the largest single-day declines since 1980. This crash was triggered by President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman [1][3]. Market Reaction - The crash began at 23:00 Beijing time, leading to panic selling as Warsh's nomination was announced. Silver fell to a low of $74.31 per ounce, erasing most of its 19.12% gain for January, while gold's 13.01% increase was also halted [3]. - The market analysis indicated that the crash was largely a result of a "liquidation cascade" due to leveraged positions built up during previous price surges. As prices fell, investors faced margin calls and were forced to sell, creating a vicious cycle [3]. Kevin Warsh's Background - Kevin Warsh, born in 1970, has an impressive background with a BA from Stanford and a JD from Harvard. He served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, becoming the youngest in history. During the 2008 financial crisis, he opposed large-scale money printing, fearing it would damage the Fed's credibility [4]. Political Dynamics - Warsh is labeled a "hawk" in the financial community, but his stance has shifted with political winds. He resigned during the Obama administration due to his hawkish views, then adapted his position during Trump's first term to support growth, and returned to a hawkish stance under Biden [6][7]. - Trump's choice of Warsh is seen as a strategic political move, aligning with the administration's need for lower interest rates while also addressing inflation risks through balance sheet reduction [8]. Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been historically challenged, with past instances of political pressure affecting its decisions. Trump's nomination of Warsh is viewed as a direct threat to this independence, especially in light of ongoing investigations into current Fed officials [10]. Market Repricing - The market's violent reaction to Warsh's nomination reflects a re-evaluation of the Fed's policy direction. Warsh's proposed combination of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts contradicts the prevailing narrative of diminished central bank independence and asset inflation [11]. Post-Crash Market Behavior - Following the crash, some investors began to buy at lower prices, with gold rebounding to $4932.84 per ounce (up 5.87%) and silver to $87.04 per ounce (up 10%) by February 3. However, experts caution against blindly buying the dip, suggesting potential further declines in gold prices [13]. Future Challenges for the Federal Reserve - If Warsh is confirmed by the Senate, he will face significant challenges as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, needing to persuade colleagues on interest rate cuts amidst internal divisions [14]. Ongoing Political Struggles - Warsh's nomination requires Senate approval, and political tensions remain high, particularly with ongoing investigations into current Fed officials. Republican Senator Tom Tillis has expressed opposition to confirming any Fed-related nominations under these circumstances [15].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced unprecedented volatility, with prices plummeting from nearly $5,600 to a low of $4,400, marking a 9% drop—the largest since 1980—followed by a sharp rebound of 6% to around $4,900 within two days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The catalyst for the price drop was the nomination of hawkish Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about liquidity tightening and prompting the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to increase margin requirements, forcing speculative long positions to liquidate [3]. - Gold prices surged by 25% and silver by 63% within a month, indicating a significant deviation from traditional valuation frameworks, with analysts suggesting gold is overvalued by 80% compared to its reasonable valuation of $2,990 per ounce for 2026 [5]. - The domestic gold price disparity is notable, with bank investment gold bars priced at 1,095-1,099 CNY per gram, while retail prices in Shenzhen reached 1,252 CNY per gram, highlighting a significant channel premium and brand cost gap [7]. Group 2: Institutional and Retail Behavior - During the price drop, SPDR Gold ETF saw an inflow of 12 tons of gold in a single day, and the domestic gold T+D holdings surged by 12.7%, indicating institutional investors are positioning themselves while retail leveraged funds amplify volatility [9]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. was reported at 47.8, close to the critical 47.0 level, which could strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, adding to market uncertainty regarding Walsh's policy direction [11]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The silver market exhibited even higher volatility, with a 26% single-day drop, attributed to its smaller market size and higher retail participation, although long-term industrial demand provides some support [12]. - Deutsche Bank maintains a price target of $6,000 for gold, while JPMorgan sets an even higher target of $6,300, though analysts caution that current prices may have exhausted future growth potential, raising concerns about whether gold's safe-haven status has been overshadowed by speculative trading [14].