经济数据分化：就业降温与通胀反复并存 最新经济数据显示，美国经济正步入一个高度矛盾的阶段。一方面，劳动力市场出现明显降温迹 象。美国劳工部最新数据显示，初请失业救济人数创三个月新高，续领失业金人数升至两年半峰值，暗 示企业裁员步伐加快。制造业PMI虽因新订单激增短暂反弹，但产能利用率却持续低于长期均值，反映 出企业对未来需求的悲观预期。这种"低裁员、弱招聘"的特殊就业形态，正是美联储双重使命面临的典 型困境：一方面，失业率尚处历史低位；另一方面，新增就业岗位的质量与稳定性显著下降。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）在东南各州实地调研中发现，中小企业普遍反映借 贷成本挤压利润空间，消费者购买力因实际工资负增长而受损，这种微观层面的经营困境尚未充分体现 在宏观统计数据中。 与此同时，通胀形势呈现复杂态势。尽管7月核心CPI同比涨幅回落至3.2%，但批发价格指数已连 续三个月攀升，生产者价格指数PPI也录得三年来最大单月涨幅，服务业通胀——尤其是医疗和教育 ——加速至4.1%。更令人担忧的是，特朗普政府拟对半导体、药品、钢铝等关键领域加征高达300%的 关税，已开始对企业成本形成实质性冲击。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29-30, highlighting structural challenges facing the U.S. economy [1][3]. Economic Growth and Labor Market - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth momentum, evidenced by weakening hard economic indicators (industrial production, retail sales) and soft market sentiment data [3]. - The labor market is in a "critical state," with signs of slowing hiring rates and a mild increase in unemployment, posing a threat to the Fed's dual mandate of achieving full employment [3]. - Waller's assertion that the current policy rate (4.25%-4.5%) is significantly above the neutral rate (approximately 3%) supports his call for a rate cut [3]. Trade Policy and Inflation - Waller presents a differentiated analysis of trade policy impacts on inflation, suggesting that a hypothetical 10% tariff would only translate to a 0.75%-1% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), characterized as "one-time and non-persistent" [4]. - He emphasizes that the Fed should focus on long-term economic trends rather than short-term price fluctuations, especially as core inflation expectations remain stable [4]. Policy Path and Flexibility - Waller outlines a clear policy adjustment roadmap, indicating that the July rate cut is just the beginning, with future actions strictly adhering to data dependency principles [5]. - He notes that if economic data confirms accelerating weakness, further rate cuts may be considered, while stronger-than-expected data could lead to a pause in adjustments [5]. Market Impact and Investment Strategy - Waller's remarks have significantly increased the probability of a July rate cut, with market pricing for a rate cut exceeding 60% prior to the meeting [8]. - In the bond market, the yield curve may steepen, with short-term Treasury yields likely to decline due to anticipated rate cuts [8]. - The dollar index may face temporary pressure in the forex market, while growth stocks could benefit from lower interest rate expectations, although caution is warranted regarding potential impacts on corporate earnings due to economic slowdown [8]. Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to utilize forex options to construct dollar volatility hedging strategies and to consider the allocation value of safe-haven assets like gold amid policy uncertainty [9]. - ETO Markets will continue to monitor economic data releases and official statements to provide forward-looking strategic support for investors [9].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade-long large-scale stimulus policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized the need to closely monitor upcoming economic data and the overall inflation situation before considering any rate hikes [1] - There is a recognition of high uncertainty in the economic environment, with mixed signals from sentiment surveys and actual economic data, which complicates the timing of potential interest rate increases [1] Group 2 - Trade uncertainties are expected to suppress winter bonuses and next year's wage negotiations, with actual impacts difficult to predict until more data is available [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising food prices could affect inflation expectations and potential inflation in Japan, necessitating careful monitoring of these developments [2] - The impact of trade tensions may primarily manifest through declining manufacturing profits, prompting companies to adopt cost-cutting pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows consumer inflation fluctuating around 3%, primarily driven by rising import costs and rice prices, although these pressures are expected to gradually dissipate [3] - There is a significant uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, which poses greater downside risks to Japan's economy and price levels [3]