证券研究报告 策略 PPI 上行如何影响 AH 权益？ 需求拉动型通胀：由于内生需求回暖推动价格上行，全产业链利润扩张，风 险偏好提升，行业轮动呈现明显的上游->大金融->消费的顺序，回测上看， 非金属材料、能源金属、乘用车、光伏设备、其他电源设备、玻璃玻纤等板 块主要受益，消费电子、专业服务、一般零售、厨卫电器、通信服务等板块 可能受损。 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 专题研究 宏观视角，PPI 同比有望于 5-6 月转正 考虑到 PPI 中石油化工相关商品价格、CPI 中运输和与能源相关性较高的分 项或表现强于此前预期。此外，随着 AI 投资相关需求以及外需走强，叠加 国内"反内卷"政策的稳步推进，对 PPI 波动率贡献较为显著的黑色系、有 色系上游商品价格有望延续温和回升态势，中下游（光伏设备、汽车等）价 格亦有望企稳，共同推动 PPI 指标同比降幅收窄。华泰宏观团队预测中国 PPI 或将在今年 5-6 月转正，为 2022 年 10 月来首次；2026 全年平均 PPI 或将从去年的-2.6 回升至+0.1%，而今年年底 PPI 可能达到 1%左右（《PPI 何时转正?》2026 年 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS's 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook report indicates that the seemingly robust growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on the AI sector, and a potential AI bubble burst could raise the probability of a recession to 50% [1] Economic Growth and Risks - The foundation of U.S. economic growth is extremely narrow, with AI-related equipment investment increasing by approximately 17% over the past four quarters, while non-AI equipment investment has declined by about 1% [3] - Non-residential construction investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has decreased in four out of the last five quarters [3] - Without the contribution from AI, the U.S. economy is essentially stagnating [3] - Consumer spending shows a K-shaped divergence, with high-income groups benefiting from AI-driven stock market wealth effects, while middle and low-income groups face erosion of purchasing power due to inflation and tariffs [3] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market's weakness is more pronounced than surface data suggests, with non-farm employment declining by an average of 41,000 per month in the last four months of 2025 when excluding healthcare and social assistance sectors [3] - The broader U-6 unemployment rate has risen to 8.43%, significantly above pre-pandemic levels [3] - There are indications that current employment data may overestimate job growth by about 60,000 per month, suggesting that labor market weakness poses a risk to the economy [3] Monetary Policy Insights - UBS believes that the market has mispriced the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with current expectations suggesting a delay until June [4] - Factors such as actual labor market weakness and potential soft signals from the February non-farm report indicate a higher necessity for rate cuts before June than the market anticipates [4] - UBS forecasts two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate target range down to 3.00%-3.25% [4] Market Divergence - There is a clear divide among market participants regarding UBS's outlook, with optimistic views suggesting a 2.7% GDP growth in 2026 and a 36% year-on-year increase in AI-related capital expenditures [5] - Some institutions agree with UBS's assessment of economic fragility, highlighting the risks associated with over-reliance on AI and the hidden weakness in the labor market [5] Tariff Policy Implications - The current weighted average tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 13.2%, equivalent to a tax burden of 1.1% of GDP, which is gradually being passed on to consumers and pushing core PCE inflation higher [6] - Inflation is expected to peak in the summer of 2026 and remain around 3% in the long term, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [6] - Fiscal policy may provide short-term support, but the impact of tax rebates in Q2 2026 is expected to diminish quickly [6] - Key variables influencing the U.S. economic trajectory and Federal Reserve policy include the conversion of AI investment into productivity gains, the visibility of labor market weakness, the extent of tariff-induced inflation, and the Fed's balancing act between inflation and employment goals [6]

Group 1 - The Japanese government maintains a cautiously optimistic view of the economy, while warning about potential downward risks from U.S. trade policies [1] - The Cabinet Office's January economic assessment reiterates that Japan's economy, as the world's fourth-largest, is experiencing moderate recovery, but highlights potential impacts on the automotive industry due to U.S. policies [1] - Private consumption, which accounts for over 50% of Japan's economy, has been assessed as remaining stable for the fifth consecutive month, described as "showing a recovery trend" [1] Group 2 - Japan's economy contracted at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declining exports from high tariffs [2] - The Bank of Japan recently raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but is expected to maintain this rate in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [2] - Political developments, including the announcement of an early House of Representatives election, have increased economic uncertainty, with concerns that proposed fiscal spending and tax policies may worsen Japan's already strained public finances [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite various measures taken by Kweichow Moutai, including share buybacks and marketing strategy optimization, the company's stock price continues to decline, experiencing an 8-day consecutive drop as of January 22, with a cumulative decline of 5.84% during this period and 2.7% for the month of January [2][4] - Historical data shows that Kweichow Moutai has previously experienced similar streaks of consecutive declines, including 8-day drops in May 2005 and November 2007, a 10-day drop in June 2008, and an 11-day drop in October 2022 [3] - Analysis indicates that after a streak of 5 or more consecutive down days, Kweichow Moutai has less than a 50% probability of seeing an increase on 6 or more of the next 10 trading days [2] Group 2 - As of January 22, Kweichow Moutai's closing price was 1340.06 CNY per share, falling below that of Cambricon Technologies (1353 CNY), marking the 19th time since August 2025 that Cambricon has surpassed Kweichow Moutai's closing price [4] - The decline in Kweichow Moutai's stock price reflects a broader investor disinterest in the consumer sector, as evidenced by significant reductions in holdings by public funds, including notable funds managed by Xiao Nan, which have adjusted their white liquor allocations [4] - Xiao Nan's strategy indicates a shift towards the livestock industry, suggesting a focus on inflation-driven cost increases rather than demand-driven growth in the coming two years [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price continues to decline despite various measures taken by the company, including buybacks and marketing strategy optimization, with an 8-day consecutive drop observed recently [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 22, Guizhou Moutai's stock price has dropped 5.84% from January 13 to January 22, with a total decline of 2.7% in January [1] - Historical data shows that Guizhou Moutai has experienced multiple instances of consecutive declines, including an 8-day drop in May 2005 and November 2007, a 10-day drop in June 2008, and an 11-day drop in October 2022 [2] - After a series of declines, the probability of the stock price rising in the following 10 trading days is less than 50% if it has fallen for 5 days or more [1] Group 2: Market Position and Investor Sentiment - As of January 22, Guizhou Moutai's closing price was 1340.06 CNY per share, falling below that of Cambricon Technologies (1353 CNY), marking the 19th time since August 2025 that Cambricon has surpassed Moutai's closing price [3] - The decline in Guizhou Moutai's stock reflects a broader investor disinterest in the consumer sector, as evidenced by significant reductions in holdings by public funds, including E Fund's adjustments in its white liquor portfolio [3] - Notably, E Fund's manager has shifted focus from high-end liquor to the livestock industry, anticipating a greater likelihood of cost-push inflation over demand-pull inflation in the next two years [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has expressed concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. economic expansion, indicating that the growth is heavily reliant on artificial intelligence (AI) investments, which could pose risks if these investments slow down or asset prices decline [1][2]. Economic Outlook - UBS models suggest a 50% probability of recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months, primarily if the AI investment boom cools down [2]. - Long-term GDP growth potential is estimated to rise to about 2.5%, driven by improved productivity and a lessening demographic drag [2]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to over 13%, equivalent to a hidden tax of about 1.1% of GDP, which is expected to elevate core inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming years [2][9]. Investment Trends - AI-related equipment investment has grown approximately 17% over the past four quarters, while non-AI equipment investment has declined by about 1% [3]. - Residential investment has contracted in four out of the last five quarters, and non-residential construction has shrunk for six consecutive quarters [4]. Consumption Dynamics - The resilience in consumer spending is attributed to wealth concentration rather than income improvement, with real disposable income growing by only 1.5% while real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.6% [7]. - The share of stock assets in household wealth reached a historical high of 35%, primarily driven by AI and technology sectors, leading to a significant amplification of high-income household consumption [7]. Employment Insights - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate, UBS indicates that the labor market's true condition is underestimated, with non-farm employment declining by an average of 41,000 jobs per month over the last four months [11]. - The U-6 unemployment rate has risen to 8.43%, significantly above pre-pandemic levels, indicating a chronic employment contraction driven by demand-side factors [11]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The "Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) is expected to provide temporary support in Q2 2026, with approximately $55 billion in tax rebates boosting consumption, but this stimulus is anticipated to fade quickly [12]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to lower interest rates twice in 2026, but the scope for easing is limited due to cost-push inflation driven by tariffs [14]. - The Fed has shifted towards balance sheet expansion to stabilize financial conditions, with gold's role evolving from a cyclical hedge to a structural asset in a high-uncertainty environment [15]. Conclusion - The current U.S. economic expansion is not a recession that has already occurred but rather a phase heavily reliant on a single engine, with the real test being whether AI can transition from narrative to structural change before the next economic shock [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should adopt a cautious stance on interest rate hikes while the government should utilize fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to inject stronger momentum into the economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Yutaka Harada emphasized the need for the Bank of Japan to be careful with interest rate increases, as rapid hikes could overly tighten policies and exert unnecessary pressure on the economy [1] - The Bank of Japan recently raised borrowing costs to the highest level in 30 years, indicating that it believes the economy is gradually approaching its price stability target [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Harada supports the government's proactive and "responsible" fiscal policy, suggesting that a "high-pressure economy" could lead to increased wages due to labor shortages, thereby improving overall productivity in Japan [1] - The government is nearing completion of its preliminary budget for the new fiscal year starting in April, which includes the largest economic stimulus plan since the pandemic [2] - Harada advised that necessary expenditures should be concentrated in the initial budget, while temporary supplementary budgets should be reduced in scale to maintain their limited, supplementary role [2] Group 3: Taxation - Harada pointed out that many taxpayers are paying more taxes without a real increase in purchasing power, highlighting the burden of the current progressive income tax system in an inflationary context [2] - He urged the government to adjust the tax system, particularly tax brackets, in line with rising nominal incomes [1][2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Harada cautioned the Bank of Japan to maintain distance when discussing the concept of "neutral interest rate," which is difficult to define due to its dependence on natural rates and inflation expectations [2] - He warned that an excessive focus on neutral interest rates could hinder the flexibility of policy decisions [2]

Core Insights - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs but is likely to avoid recession [1] - The core CPI inflation rate is currently around 3% year-on-year, with expectations of falling below 2% by 2026 [1] - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takamatsu, has introduced an economic policy framework called "Takamatsu Economics" focusing on crisis management, expansionary fiscal policy, and government responsibility in monetary policy [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - A significant decline in GDP is anticipated in Q3 of this year, yet domestic demand shows resilience [1] - Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling food prices and downward pressure from policy measures [1] - By 2027, inflation may gradually rise back to 2% after dipping below 2% in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy - The stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda aligns with Prime Minister Takamatsu's views, distinguishing between cost-push and demand-pull inflation [1] - No immediate policy adjustments are expected from Ueda following the new government's inauguration [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates in January 2026, pause for a year, and then implement two more rate hikes in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economic advisor, Takushi Aida, urges the Bank of Japan to delay interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need to support the fragile economic recovery until at least January 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's economy may have contracted in the third quarter, with household real income not yet showing positive growth, indicating that an interest rate hike could counteract fiscal stimulus and increase economic downside risks [1][3] - The Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, advocates for a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that current inflation is driven by raw material costs rather than domestic demand [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at approximately 0.5% during its latest meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold since January [2] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding the maintenance of an accommodative stance, with two policy committee members voting against the current rate [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market focus is on whether the Bank of Japan will take action on December 19 or in January 2026, with approximately half of observers expecting a rate hike in December [3] - The yen has been under pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low not seen since February 2025, raising concerns about the impact of yen depreciation on import costs and living standards [3]

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]