日本央行上周将借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平，显示其认为经济正逐步接近价格稳定目标。尽管通胀 目标取得进展，意味着央行与政府理论上可以逐步减少刺激措施，高市政府近期反而加大支出力度，以 寻求更强劲的经济增长，这一立场令部分投资者感到不安。 Harada对政府积极而"负责任"的财政政策表示支持，并预计在高压经济环境下，劳动力短缺将倒逼企业 提高薪酬，从而改善日本整体生产率。不过，这位以再通胀立场著称的经济学家也提醒，随着名义收入 上升，税制尤其是税档设置需要同步调整。 周三，日本央行前政策委员会委员Yutaka Harada指出，日本央行在推进货币政策正常化的同时，应对加 息保持审慎立场，而政府则应充分动用财政、货币及税收政策，为经济注入更强动力。 Harada指出，现任首相Sanae Takaichi领导的政府应致力于打造"高压经济"，通过全面刺激需求来推动增 长。"如果加息步伐过快，可能会导致政策过度收紧，对经济造成不必要的压力。" 他认为，日本当前的通胀在一定程度上源于供给侧因素，例如大米价格上涨等成本推动型因素，而进一 步加息对抑制这类通胀的效果可能有限。 "真正需要的支出应该在初始预算中解决，"他直言 ...

Core Insights - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs but is likely to avoid recession [1] - The core CPI inflation rate is currently around 3% year-on-year, with expectations of falling below 2% by 2026 [1] - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takamatsu, has introduced an economic policy framework called "Takamatsu Economics" focusing on crisis management, expansionary fiscal policy, and government responsibility in monetary policy [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - A significant decline in GDP is anticipated in Q3 of this year, yet domestic demand shows resilience [1] - Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling food prices and downward pressure from policy measures [1] - By 2027, inflation may gradually rise back to 2% after dipping below 2% in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy - The stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda aligns with Prime Minister Takamatsu's views, distinguishing between cost-push and demand-pull inflation [1] - No immediate policy adjustments are expected from Ueda following the new government's inauguration [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates in January 2026, pause for a year, and then implement two more rate hikes in 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economic advisor, Takushi Aida, urges the Bank of Japan to delay interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need to support the fragile economic recovery until at least January 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's economy may have contracted in the third quarter, with household real income not yet showing positive growth, indicating that an interest rate hike could counteract fiscal stimulus and increase economic downside risks [1][3] - The Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, advocates for a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies, highlighting that current inflation is driven by raw material costs rather than domestic demand [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at approximately 0.5% during its latest meeting, marking the sixth consecutive hold since January [2] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding the maintenance of an accommodative stance, with two policy committee members voting against the current rate [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market focus is on whether the Bank of Japan will take action on December 19 or in January 2026, with approximately half of observers expecting a rate hike in December [3] - The yen has been under pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low not seen since February 2025, raising concerns about the impact of yen depreciation on import costs and living standards [3]

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Prominent economists warn that the UK is heading towards a debt crisis similar to the 1970s due to the fiscal policies of Chancellor Reeves, potentially requiring assistance from the IMF [1][3][4] Economic Situation - The UK's fiscal deficit is projected to reach £50 billion, with rising borrowing costs leading to increased interest rates on government debt [1][6] - The debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 96.3%, ranking fifth among developed countries, with interest payments expected to total £111.2 billion this year [6] Inflation and Economic Growth - Economists predict that inflation, particularly in food prices, may remain around 5% next year, contributing to a period of "stagflation" [1][6] - The current economic policies are seen as exacerbating demand-pull and cost-push inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s [4] Political Reactions - Opposition leaders criticize the government's approach, suggesting that tax increases will worsen the economic situation, advocating for spending cuts instead [6][7] - The Conservative Party emphasizes its historical role in stabilizing the economy during past crises, including the 1976 IMF bailout and the 2008 financial crisis [7] Government Response - The UK Treasury dismisses claims of an impending 1970s-style debt crisis as unfounded, asserting that current fiscal measures are aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is at a crossroads due to the impact of tariffs and economic downturn pressures [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Powell acknowledged that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has transitioned from expectation to reality, necessitating a reassessment of inflation prediction models [3] - The cost-push inflation resulting from tariffs may lead to rising wages, as workers may demand higher pay due to shrinking real incomes from increasing prices [3] - Powell expressed skepticism about the assumption that tariff effects are temporary, suggesting that if they are persistent, the Fed may need to maintain a more accommodative stance for a longer period [3] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell emphasized a "special balance" in the labor market, influenced by factors such as technological advancements, the retirement of the baby boomer generation, and tightening immigration policies [4] - These changes are expected to disrupt the traditional Phillips curve framework, prompting the Fed to reconsider its policy approach [4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is adjusting its expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 75% according to futures trading data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a complex decision-making moment characterized by a "triple dilemma" involving a weakening labor market, persistent core inflation pressures, and increasing political interference from the White House [1] Economic Data Divergence - Recent economic data indicates a contradictory phase for the U.S. economy, with signs of a cooling labor market as initial jobless claims reach a three-month high and continued claims rise to a two-and-a-half-year peak [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed a temporary rebound due to a surge in new orders, but capacity utilization remains below long-term averages, reflecting pessimistic future demand expectations [2] - The quality and stability of new job positions are declining, despite the unemployment rate being at historical lows [2] Inflation Dynamics - Core CPI growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in July, yet wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the producer price index (PPI) recording its largest monthly increase in three years [3] - Service sector inflation, particularly in healthcare and education, accelerated to 4.1% [3] - Proposed tariffs of up to 300% on key sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are beginning to impact corporate costs, with some manufacturers experiencing cost increases of 2%-5% [3] Internal Policy Divisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal policy divisions, with hawkish members advocating for no rate cuts due to high inflation, while dovish members suggest preemptive rate cuts if labor market conditions worsen [4][5] - The debate reflects the Fed's struggle to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, revealing limitations in its average inflation targeting framework [5] Market Expectations - The futures market indicates a 73.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expected cumulative cut of 47 basis points for the year, although this consensus is built on fragile foundations [6] - Despite weak employment data supporting rate cuts, the significant rise in wholesale prices has been largely overlooked by the market [6] Political Pressures - Political factors complicate the decision-making environment, with former President Trump pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts and criticizing Chair Powell for delayed actions [7] - Investigations into Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the Justice Department could further threaten the Fed's independence, especially if political appointments shift the board's balance [7] Jackson Hole Meeting - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Powell is anticipated to be a critical moment for policy direction, with expectations of a "fuzzy" strategy that acknowledges economic risks while emphasizing the need to monitor inflation [8] - The Fed's policy path will face tests related to tariff impacts, political pressures, and market expectations, with a likely approach of gradual rate cuts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, adding 407 product categories with a tax rate of 50%, which may exacerbate domestic supply chain pressures and increase consumer prices [1][3][13]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The expanded tariff list includes unexpected products such as baby strollers and deodorants, indicating a broadening scope of affected items [3]. - The new tariff policy took effect suddenly, catching many U.S. importers off guard, as they were notified just before the implementation date [7]. - Many U.S. importers face a dilemma with goods already in transit; accepting them incurs high tariffs, while refusing delivery leads to losses [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The expansion of tariffs is expected to impact at least $320 billion in imports, significantly higher than previous estimates of $190 billion, potentially leading to increased production costs and inflationary pressures [15]. - The U.S. domestic manufacturing sector may struggle to meet demand due to the tariffs, particularly in industries like power transformers, which could slow down advancements in sectors such as artificial intelligence [17]. - Analysts warn that not only steel and aluminum but also other industries may experience fluctuating tariff policies in the future, as indicated by recent statements from former President Trump [19][21].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, adding 407 product categories to the tariff list with a tax rate of 50% [1][4] - The expanded tariff list includes unexpected items such as baby strollers and deodorant sprays, indicating a broadening scope of affected products [4] - Many U.S. importers are caught in a difficult position, facing increased tariffs on goods already in transit, leading to potential financial losses [6] Group 2 - The expansion of tariffs is seen as a measure to close loopholes and support the revival of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, according to the Deputy Secretary of Commerce [8] - However, economists warn that the expanded tariffs may exacerbate supply chain pressures and increase consumer prices, contributing to inflation [8][10] - The latest tariffs are estimated to impact at least $320 billion in imports, significantly higher than previous estimates, which could lead to increased costs for domestic producers [10] Group 3 - The "Core Alliance," representing the U.S. power transformer industry, has expressed concerns that increased tariffs may extend delivery times and hinder the development of the U.S. artificial intelligence industry [12] - Analysts suggest that not only steel and aluminum but also other industries may experience fluctuating tariff policies in the future, as indicated by recent statements from President Trump [14][16]

Group 1 - The global financial market is closely watching the Jackson Hole event, interpreting Jerome Powell's upcoming speech as a reaffirmation of a hawkish stance [1] - The unexpected surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a warning about cost-push inflation, providing hawkish members of the Federal Reserve with ammunition to resist rate cuts [1] - There are signs of a global economic slowdown, with central banks in Australia, New Zealand, and China expected to adopt more accommodative policies, putting pressure on the Fed to maintain its tightening stance [1][2] Group 2 - Powell is balancing the need to address inflation concerns while acknowledging economic downturn risks, emphasizing "data dependency" to maintain credibility while allowing for flexible policy adjustments [2] - Market reactions will be nuanced; if Powell's speech aligns with expectations, there may be little volatility, but a more hawkish tone could trigger a risk-off sentiment, impacting the dollar and stock prices [2] - Investors must prepare for multiple policy scenarios, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and keen insight into key data in this uncertain environment [3][4]