高市早苗于今年十月成为新一任日本首相。我们认为，她的经济政策"早苗经济学"由三大支柱构成： 1）重视国家危机管理与经济增长；2）以应对通胀为核心的扩张性财政政策；3）主张政府负责货币政 策，而日本央行应决定最佳工具的方针。她强调价格目标应通过需求拉动型通胀而非成本推动型通胀来 实现。 虽然预计今年第三季度GDP将出现大幅下滑，但内需仍保持一定韧性。 目前核心CPI通胀率（不含生鲜食品）约为同比3%。然而，随着食品价格回落以及政策措施的下行压 力，我们预计通胀率将在2026年降至2%以下。此后，到2027年，通胀率可能会再次逐步上升至2%。 森田京平博士，野村日本首席经济学家 我们预计日本经济增长将受关税影响而放缓，但仍可避免衰退。 我们认为日本央行行长植田和男的政策立场与高市早苗的立场相符，因为植田和男在衡量潜在通胀时区 分了成本推动型和需求拉动型通胀。植田和男无需在新政府上任后调整政策立场，因此我们维持先前预 期：即日本央行将在2026年一月加息，随后暂停一年，并于2027年再加息两次。 ...

新华财经北京11月10日电（崔凯）日本首相高市早苗的经济顾问会田卓司呼吁日本央行推迟加息，此番 言论再度引发市场对日本政府与央行之间政策协调边界及货币政策独立性的关注。 会田卓司表示，日本央行应避免在12月加息。建议至少推迟至2026年1月再考虑政策调整，以支持当前 仍显脆弱的经济复苏。 会田卓司指出，日本经济在第三季度可能出现萎缩，在家庭实际收入尚未恢复正增长的背景下，加息将 对财政刺激措施形成对冲，增加经济下行风险。他强调，若日本央行确信2026财年经济将实现稳健增 长，则明年1月加息更具可行性。 市场对政策前景高度敏感。目前，投资者焦点集中于日本央行是否会在12月19日或2026年1月采取行 动。 近期，日元持续承压。日本央行10月会议后，美元兑日元一度走弱至154，创2025年2月以来新低。会田 卓司认为，日元在140–150区间总体有利于提升企业竞争力和促进生产回流，但贬值亦推高进口成本， 加剧民众生活负担。 数据显示，日本通胀已连续三年多超过央行2%的目标，而实际工资则连续17个月同比下滑。这种成本 推动型通胀格局，使货币政策制定面临两难。 据市场调查，约半数日本央行观察人士预计12月将加息，而约 ...

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Prominent economists warn that the UK is heading towards a debt crisis similar to the 1970s due to the fiscal policies of Chancellor Reeves, potentially requiring assistance from the IMF [1][3][4] Economic Situation - The UK's fiscal deficit is projected to reach £50 billion, with rising borrowing costs leading to increased interest rates on government debt [1][6] - The debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 96.3%, ranking fifth among developed countries, with interest payments expected to total £111.2 billion this year [6] Inflation and Economic Growth - Economists predict that inflation, particularly in food prices, may remain around 5% next year, contributing to a period of "stagflation" [1][6] - The current economic policies are seen as exacerbating demand-pull and cost-push inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s [4] Political Reactions - Opposition leaders criticize the government's approach, suggesting that tax increases will worsen the economic situation, advocating for spending cuts instead [6][7] - The Conservative Party emphasizes its historical role in stabilizing the economy during past crises, including the 1976 IMF bailout and the 2008 financial crisis [7] Government Response - The UK Treasury dismisses claims of an impending 1970s-style debt crisis as unfounded, asserting that current fiscal measures are aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is at a crossroads due to the impact of tariffs and economic downturn pressures [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Powell acknowledged that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has transitioned from expectation to reality, necessitating a reassessment of inflation prediction models [3] - The cost-push inflation resulting from tariffs may lead to rising wages, as workers may demand higher pay due to shrinking real incomes from increasing prices [3] - Powell expressed skepticism about the assumption that tariff effects are temporary, suggesting that if they are persistent, the Fed may need to maintain a more accommodative stance for a longer period [3] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell emphasized a "special balance" in the labor market, influenced by factors such as technological advancements, the retirement of the baby boomer generation, and tightening immigration policies [4] - These changes are expected to disrupt the traditional Phillips curve framework, prompting the Fed to reconsider its policy approach [4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is adjusting its expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 75% according to futures trading data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a complex decision-making moment characterized by a "triple dilemma" involving a weakening labor market, persistent core inflation pressures, and increasing political interference from the White House [1] Economic Data Divergence - Recent economic data indicates a contradictory phase for the U.S. economy, with signs of a cooling labor market as initial jobless claims reach a three-month high and continued claims rise to a two-and-a-half-year peak [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed a temporary rebound due to a surge in new orders, but capacity utilization remains below long-term averages, reflecting pessimistic future demand expectations [2] - The quality and stability of new job positions are declining, despite the unemployment rate being at historical lows [2] Inflation Dynamics - Core CPI growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in July, yet wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the producer price index (PPI) recording its largest monthly increase in three years [3] - Service sector inflation, particularly in healthcare and education, accelerated to 4.1% [3] - Proposed tariffs of up to 300% on key sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are beginning to impact corporate costs, with some manufacturers experiencing cost increases of 2%-5% [3] Internal Policy Divisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal policy divisions, with hawkish members advocating for no rate cuts due to high inflation, while dovish members suggest preemptive rate cuts if labor market conditions worsen [4][5] - The debate reflects the Fed's struggle to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, revealing limitations in its average inflation targeting framework [5] Market Expectations - The futures market indicates a 73.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expected cumulative cut of 47 basis points for the year, although this consensus is built on fragile foundations [6] - Despite weak employment data supporting rate cuts, the significant rise in wholesale prices has been largely overlooked by the market [6] Political Pressures - Political factors complicate the decision-making environment, with former President Trump pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts and criticizing Chair Powell for delayed actions [7] - Investigations into Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the Justice Department could further threaten the Fed's independence, especially if political appointments shift the board's balance [7] Jackson Hole Meeting - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Powell is anticipated to be a critical moment for policy direction, with expectations of a "fuzzy" strategy that acknowledges economic risks while emphasizing the need to monitor inflation [8] - The Fed's policy path will face tests related to tariff impacts, political pressures, and market expectations, with a likely approach of gradual rate cuts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, adding 407 product categories with a tax rate of 50%, which may exacerbate domestic supply chain pressures and increase consumer prices [1][3][13]. Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The expanded tariff list includes unexpected products such as baby strollers and deodorants, indicating a broadening scope of affected items [3]. - The new tariff policy took effect suddenly, catching many U.S. importers off guard, as they were notified just before the implementation date [7]. - Many U.S. importers face a dilemma with goods already in transit; accepting them incurs high tariffs, while refusing delivery leads to losses [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The expansion of tariffs is expected to impact at least $320 billion in imports, significantly higher than previous estimates of $190 billion, potentially leading to increased production costs and inflationary pressures [15]. - The U.S. domestic manufacturing sector may struggle to meet demand due to the tariffs, particularly in industries like power transformers, which could slow down advancements in sectors such as artificial intelligence [17]. - Analysts warn that not only steel and aluminum but also other industries may experience fluctuating tariff policies in the future, as indicated by recent statements from former President Trump [19][21].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has officially announced an expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, adding 407 product categories to the tariff list with a tax rate of 50% [1][4] - The expanded tariff list includes unexpected items such as baby strollers and deodorant sprays, indicating a broadening scope of affected products [4] - Many U.S. importers are caught in a difficult position, facing increased tariffs on goods already in transit, leading to potential financial losses [6] Group 2 - The expansion of tariffs is seen as a measure to close loopholes and support the revival of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, according to the Deputy Secretary of Commerce [8] - However, economists warn that the expanded tariffs may exacerbate supply chain pressures and increase consumer prices, contributing to inflation [8][10] - The latest tariffs are estimated to impact at least $320 billion in imports, significantly higher than previous estimates, which could lead to increased costs for domestic producers [10] Group 3 - The "Core Alliance," representing the U.S. power transformer industry, has expressed concerns that increased tariffs may extend delivery times and hinder the development of the U.S. artificial intelligence industry [12] - Analysts suggest that not only steel and aluminum but also other industries may experience fluctuating tariff policies in the future, as indicated by recent statements from President Trump [14][16]

Group 1 - The global financial market is closely watching the Jackson Hole event, interpreting Jerome Powell's upcoming speech as a reaffirmation of a hawkish stance [1] - The unexpected surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a warning about cost-push inflation, providing hawkish members of the Federal Reserve with ammunition to resist rate cuts [1] - There are signs of a global economic slowdown, with central banks in Australia, New Zealand, and China expected to adopt more accommodative policies, putting pressure on the Fed to maintain its tightening stance [1][2] Group 2 - Powell is balancing the need to address inflation concerns while acknowledging economic downturn risks, emphasizing "data dependency" to maintain credibility while allowing for flexible policy adjustments [2] - Market reactions will be nuanced; if Powell's speech aligns with expectations, there may be little volatility, but a more hawkish tone could trigger a risk-off sentiment, impacting the dollar and stock prices [2] - Investors must prepare for multiple policy scenarios, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and keen insight into key data in this uncertain environment [3][4]

Group 1 - South Korea's household credit reached 1952.8 trillion won in Q2, with a month-on-month growth of 1.3% in June, significantly up from 0.1% in March, and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, the highest since June 2022 [1] - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong emphasized the "high uncertainty" facing the economy, particularly due to challenging trade conditions and potential risks from US tariff negotiations impacting the export-driven economy [1] - Rising overdue repayment rates among SMEs and local developers indicate increasing debt repayment pressure in certain sectors, reflecting growing financial stability risks domestically [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea will hold a crucial monetary policy meeting on August 28 to assess multiple factors, including economic growth potential, inflation trends, and financial system vulnerabilities [2] - Governor Lee stated that if economic data meets expectations, there is a possibility of resuming a monetary easing cycle, provided the financial system remains stable [2] - Analysts note a policy dilemma for the Bank of Korea, balancing the need to stimulate domestic demand through rate cuts against high household debt levels and rising default risks in specific industries [2]