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电解镍:外鹰内规摧镍市,万点恐慌待春宁
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 07:55
1月19日,电解镍市场突现重挫,据长江有色金属网获悉,今日长江现货市场报价跌至147,500-150,200 元/吨,均价报148,850元/吨,单日暴跌超3,800元,跌幅逾2.5%。此番急跌并非单一利空所致,而是宏 观预期转向、政策监管收紧、高库存压力与终端需求疲软等多重因素叠加共振,导致市场恐慌情绪集中 释放的结果。 一、宏观面:内外部压力形成"双杀"格局 本次价格剧烈回调,首要压力来自宏观情绪的骤然降温。外部方面,全球主要央行特别是美联储的政策 立场趋于审慎,市场对早期降息的乐观预期大幅消退,推动美元指数强势上行,对包括镍在内的美元计 价商品构成普遍压制,风险资金从大宗商品领域流出迹象明显。内部层面,国内金融市场监管政策旨在 抑制过度投机,相关交易规则的调整在落地前已引发前期累积的多头头寸加速了结。同时,前期市场已 对部分结构性货币政策利好进行了充分定价,新的增量支撑有限,宏观面呈现"外压内控"的双重利空环 境。 二、供需面:高库存"堰塞湖"遭遇需求"季节性寒流" 当前市场最核心的矛盾在于显著的供应宽松与疲软的现实需求。供应端,全球范围内电解镍显性库存持 续攀升,无论是国内期货交易所还是海外主要仓库, ...
观察| AI漫剧杀疯了!比霸总短剧还赚?
未可知人工智能研究院· 2025-10-29 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI comic dramas is not just a potential trend but a rapidly expanding market, with profitability outpacing traditional short dramas by tenfold [1]. Cost Reduction and Production Efficiency - The production cost of comic dramas has drastically decreased from 800-1200 RMB per minute to 20-50 RMB, thanks to AI tools [3][4]. - AI has streamlined the production process, allowing script generation in 10 minutes and visual creation with tools like Midjourney, enhancing efficiency by over ten times [3]. - Traditional animation techniques have been replaced by AI tools that automate lip-syncing and body movements, reducing production time significantly [3]. Market Demand and User Demographics - The primary user base for AI comic dramas is aged 18-45, with 68% from third and fourth-tier cities and over 70% being female [8]. - Users prefer fast-paced, high-conflict storylines, which AI comic dramas effectively deliver [9]. - A specific AI comic drama achieved over 5 billion views on Douyin, indicating strong market demand [11]. Monetization Strategies - AI comic dramas are diversifying their revenue streams beyond traditional advertising, including live streaming sales and IP derivatives [13]. - Advertising revenue can reach 5,000-8,000 RMB per episode with over 1 million views, and can exceed 100,000 RMB for viral hits [14]. - Live streaming during key plot points has proven lucrative, with one instance generating 3 million RMB in sales [15]. - The clarity of copyright for AI-generated characters allows for extensive IP development, including virtual idols and merchandise [16]. Challenges and Risks - The industry faces risks such as content homogenization, with 80% of AI comic dramas following similar tropes, potentially leading to viewer fatigue [19]. - Copyright issues remain a concern, as similarities to existing IPs can result in legal disputes [19]. - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with platforms beginning to implement content reviews for AI-generated material [19]. Conclusion - The emergence of AI comic dramas represents a significant shift in the cultural industry, driven by cost efficiency and high production capabilities, positioning it as a potential new revenue-generating phenomenon [20]. - However, sustainable success will depend on innovation in content, managing copyright risks, and adapting to regulatory changes [21].