Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Hold long positions and monitor macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If Myanmar's supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but the pressure is reduced compared to October. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The market remains in a state of high - level price fluctuations. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in all links. Pay attention to the support level of the spot price, the establishment of the platform company, production control, and demand - side orders. For trading, focus on the 50,000 support level for futures, and hold and observe ETFs/related stocks [5]. Copper - The copper market is in a wait - and - see mode. Macro factors such as interest rate cuts, tariffs, and overseas liquidity will affect copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and downstream demand is resilient. The bottom of copper prices is expected to gradually rise, with the main contract focusing on the 86,500 support level [8]. Zinc - The fundamentals and macro factors of zinc have limited changes. The supply is expected to face less pressure, and the demand is average. The LME zinc price has an upper - bound pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is expected to range between 22,300 - 23,000 [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short entanglement. Macro factors exert pressure, and the supply of refined nickel is high. The supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 118,000 - 124,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Macro driving forces are weakening, the supply of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure. The supply is still under pressure, and demand is insufficient. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging between 12,400 - 12,800 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum - alloy market has reached a new high. The cost is strongly supported, but demand is weak due to high prices. Inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging between 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market fluctuates widely. The supply is gradually increasing, and demand is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and downstream demand changes [20]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a weak - supply and weak - demand situation, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by macro factors, with strong capital sentiment but weak fundamentals. The price may test the 22,000 pressure level [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.15% to 291,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 155.03% to 85.00 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. In October, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992.0 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98% to 68.12% [4]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased by 117.76% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the import volume increased by 28.46% to 0.13 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.03% to 86,795 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 84.77 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased by 1.54 percentage points [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.95% to 11.50 million tons [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.22% to 22,610 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 542.25 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points [10]. - **Inventory**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.63% to 3.6 million tons [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.70% to 120,450 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.10% to - 201 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% [11]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.14% to 49,133 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.20% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.70% [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.42% to 7.14 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread of Foshan crushed aluminum increased by 2.42% [15][17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.95% [15][17]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [15][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.22% to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) increased by 30.17% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% [20]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [20]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.23% to 21,670 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 170.1 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.21% to 54.4 million tons [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton [5][120] 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supply side shows stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals last week, and port inventory reduction. Domestic iron mills' losses have widened, leading to reduced production schedules, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules have increased, and nickel iron inventory has accumulated. Domestic refined nickel production schedules have decreased, and export profits have expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production schedules have increased, while precursor production schedules have decreased. Stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series. Alloy electroplating demand is stable. In terms of inventory, pure nickel social inventory increased last week, while bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][94] - Stainless steel: From a fundamental perspective, stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series, while the production schedule of the 300 series is basically flat, and the terminal demand for stainless steel is weak. The cost-side support continues to weaken, with nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome prices falling. In terms of inventory, the total inventory has increased, while the 300 series inventory has decreased. Overall, the demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [5][120] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.99%. The trading volume of SHFE nickel decreased to 546,500 lots (-46,200), and the open interest increased to 121,900 lots (+9,400). LME nickel also declined by 1.35% weekly, and its trading volume increased to 37,500 lots (+7,200) [11] - The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China also remained stable [20] - In September, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [25] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 415,000 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 220,000 wet tons [27] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron increased by 150 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel widened [32] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports reached 1.085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 47.2%. Imports are expected to decline in October [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [44] - Nickel pig iron inventory has accumulated [46] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [50] - The export profit of electrolytic nickel has expanded [54] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, while exports decreased [58] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [63] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [67] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price decline of pure nickel was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 20.4% year-on-year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month-on-month and 39.8% year-on-year [76] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month-on-month and 23.4% year-on-year [78] - In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.617 million units, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume reached 1.604 million units, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [84] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory increased [85] - Last week, the bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, while the six-region social total inventory increased by 1,029 tons [90] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP externally decreased. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel through MHP integration is significantly higher than that through nickel matte integration [93] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high-nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome decreased, and the cost-side support weakened [101] - The profit of the 200 series of stainless steel decreased, the loss of the 300 series widened, and the loss of the 400 series decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [109] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory has increased. The inventory of the 200 series has increased, the 300 series has decreased, and the 400 series has increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [120]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 9, 2025 [3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: Market Review, Fundamental Analysis, and Future Outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section focuses on the price trend of the nickel futures主力合约 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore at ports [10] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, the monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from Fubao [13][15][18] - **Downstream**: Analyzes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [20][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on the 29th local time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [35] - The nickel futures in Shanghai showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of Typhoon "Seagull", supply was affected, while the Indonesian nickel ore market supply was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream ternary sales, but its medium - term strength remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel主力合约 is approximately 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel主力合约 is about 12,200 - 13,100 yuan/ton [35]

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Waste Incineration and New Materials Key Points Financial Performance - In 2024, Weiming Environmental's waste incineration segment generated revenue of **3.37 billion yuan** with a gross margin of **59.5%**, significantly above the industry average due to advanced technology and self-manufacturing capabilities [2][3][10] - The company achieved a gross profit of **2 billion yuan** in the waste incineration segment, reflecting strong operational efficiency [3] Market Expansion Strategy - Weiming Environmental has chosen **Indonesia** as a key market for overseas expansion due to its large population of approximately **300 million** and significant economic potential [4][5] - The Indonesian government employs a sovereign fund model for waste incineration project tenders, enhancing project revenue certainty [5] - The company aims to capture about **20%** of the Indonesian market, equivalent to **1/4** of its domestic scale [6] Strategic Partnerships - Collaboration with **Qingshan Holding** in high-nickel smelting and downstream nickel electrolysis is a strategic move to penetrate the new energy materials sector [2][6] - The partnership is expected to yield initial results and contribute to revenue growth [2][5] Risk Management - To mitigate risks associated with overseas expansion, Weiming Environmental collaborates with established firms like Qingshan Holding and adopts a **PPP model** to align interests with local governments [9] - The company emphasizes enhancing its operational management capabilities to ensure successful project implementation [9] Future Growth Projections - By **2026**, the company's PE ratio is projected to drop to around **11 times**, with overall profitability expected to double [2][7] - The forecasted net profit for 2026 is estimated to reach between **3.4 billion to 3.5 billion yuan**, corresponding to a PE valuation of less than **12 times** [20] Equipment Manufacturing and New Materials - The equipment manufacturing segment has shown a strong recovery, with revenues of **2.9 billion yuan** in 2023, a **56%** increase year-on-year [13] - New materials business, including high-nickel smelting, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue as it enters the operational phase [14][17] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a significant turnaround in free cash flow, reaching **707 million yuan** in the first three quarters, compared to a negative **160 million yuan** in the same period last year [18][19] - The asset-liability ratio stands at approximately **40%**, indicating a solid financial position to support future investments [19] Conclusion - Weiming Environmental is positioned for robust growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Indonesia, with strategic partnerships and a focus on operational efficiency driving its expansion and profitability [8][20]

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [3] Report Analysts - Wu Jinheng, Research Institute [3] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [4][92] - Stainless Steel: Hold Short Position [5][117] Core Views - Nickel market shows weak supply - demand fundamentals and large inventory pressure, with low valuation, expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] - Stainless steel market has weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, expected to fluctuate weakly [5][118] Summary by Section 1. Nickel 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.14%, trading volume increased to 592,700 lots (+150,500), and open interest decreased to 112,500 lots (-89,000) [9] - LME nickel had a weekly decline of 0.72%, and trading volume increased to 30,300 lots (+32,000) [9] - The basis premium was 1,050 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: Last week, prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and shipping prices from the Philippines to China were unchanged; in September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease and 33.9% YoY increase; last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 391,400 tons, and port inventories decreased by 180,000 wet tons [18][23][25] - **Nickel Pig Iron**: 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 5.5 yuan/nickel point, 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron price fell by 100 yuan/ton; in September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY increase, expected to decline in October; in November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization decreased, while those in Indonesia increased; nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [30][33][41][43] - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In November, refined nickel production and capacity utilization decreased; electrolytic nickel export profit expanded; in September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel**: In November, stainless steel production decreased, with 300 - series production remaining basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, imports increased by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [60][106][109] - **New Energy**: Nickel sulfate price remained flat while pure nickel price dropped, and the premium of nickel sulfate over pure nickel expanded; in November, ternary precursor production decreased by 0.1% MoM and increased by 20.4% YoY, ternary material production increased by 1.4% MoM and 39.8% YoY, and nickel sulfate production increased by 4.8% MoM and 23.4% YoY [69][74][76] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased; Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons, and six - region social total inventory decreased by 698 tons [83][88] 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP was significantly lower than that from integrated nickel matte [91] 1.6 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold; Operating range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton; Due to loose fundamentals, large inventory pressure, and low valuation, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] 2. Stainless Steel 2.1 Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.03%, and the basis widened to 850 yuan/ton; trading volume decreased to 574,200 lots (-64,700), and open interest decreased to 82,000 lots (-62,200) [95] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices dropped, weakening cost support; 200 - series profit increased, 300 - series loss widened, and 400 - series loss narrowed [98][102] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to 200 - series production cuts, and 300 - series production remained basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased and imports increased, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [106][109] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased; 200 - series and 300 - series inventories increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [115] 2.5 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold short position; Operating range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton; Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][117][118]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume, mainly affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price remained firm, the nickel iron price continued to decline, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price declined, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes** - Nickel ore prices (red clay nickel ore with different grades) remained unchanged compared to last week. The price of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate also remained unchanged. The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same, while the high - nickel iron price decreased by 0.53%. The price of electrolytic nickel (Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price) decreased, and the 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 0.36% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Conditions** - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and the freight remained the same as last week. As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.26%. The imported nickel ore volume in September 2025 decreased by 3.66% month - on - month but increased by 33.91% year - on - year. The northern Philippines had a tender with a firm price, and the rainy season in Surigao was approaching [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions** - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume. In the long - term, the supply and demand will both increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary materials in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volume also changed, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in September 2025 compared to the previous month. The LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][26][30]. - **Nickel Iron Market Conditions** - The nickel iron price declined. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The nickel iron import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in September 2025 was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Conditions** - The 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In September 2025, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with an increase in the 300 - series production. The import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the national stainless - steel inventory increased by 370 tons [59][65][71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales** - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%. In September 2025, the total battery production was 151.2 GWh, and the power battery loading volume was 76.0 GWh [75][78]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. During the price decline this week, there was obvious position - increasing, and position - reducing occurred around 120,000. The MACD direction was not clear, and the KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area [81]. 4. Industry Chain Sorting Summary - **Fundamental View** - Nickel ore: Neutral, with stable quotes, flat freight, and the approaching rainy season. - Nickel iron: Neutral, with a stable - to - decreasing price and a certain decline in the cost line. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish, with the long - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged and continuous inventory build - up at home and abroad. - Stainless - steel: Neutral, with a slight increase in inventory. - New energy: Neutral, with good production data and a year - on - year increase in ternary battery loading [84]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].