1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost increase supports the strong and volatile nickel price. The RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the nickel ore price center continues to rise, providing support for the nickel price. However, the short - term nickel supply - demand contradiction is still relatively limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly following the overall non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, the nickel ore market in the Philippines was affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, with light trading and limited supply. In Indonesia, the focus was on the RKAB mining quota approval, and the tightened quota led to a prominent shortage of ore for smelters. Although the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia declined slightly, the overall price remained strong [12]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron remained strong this week, with the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point on Friday. The upstream manufacturers' quotes were firm, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, driving the price up [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The nickel intermediate product market showed obvious differentiation. The supply of MHP shrank due to an accident in an Indonesian park, and the downstream restocked after resuming work, leading to an increase in quotes and the nickel coefficient. The supply and demand of high - grade nickel matte were both weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price rose slightly this week due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 140,980 yuan per ton, up 3.46% week - on - week. The spot trading was light. The Fed's January FOMC meeting minutes released a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June rose to 92%. The domestic social inventory increased by 2200 tons to 77,000 tons this week, and the LME inventory was basically flat. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai nickel price expected to range from 130,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M contract from 16,000 to 20,000 US dollars per ton [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price rose slightly this week due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2605 closed at 140,980 yuan per ton, up 3.46% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the import nickel premium remained stable at a low level, indicating a loose spot market. The ferronickel price rose steadily, and the premium of refined nickel over ferronickel returned to a normal level. The price of nickel sulfate fluctuated with the nickel price [17][19][22]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. As the nickel price rose, the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore also increased. Currently, the price of 1.6% - grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen to 63.7 US dollars per ton, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore has risen to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][28][30]. - **Ferronickel production**: In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel [33]. - **Intermediate product production**: In January, the production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly month - on - month due to the sharp rise in the MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over ferronickel. The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [37][41]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: In January 2026, the national refined nickel production was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [46]. - **Demand**: In January 2026, the domestic stainless - steel production was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November. The inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [49]. - **Import and export**: The global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly reflected in the domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 3800 tons compared with last week [55]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate production was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly. The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [60][62][65]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the supply - demand balance data of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products. The global primary nickel supply exceeded demand, and the supply - demand gap showed an increasing trend. The global refined nickel supply - demand gap also showed a certain pattern of change, and the visible inventory continued to increase [68].

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a public notice soliciting opinions on 243 industry standards, including the "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Sulfuric Acid Industry" [2][3] - The standards cover various sectors, including chemical, black metallurgy, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, and shipbuilding, with a total of 243 standards being reviewed [2][3] Chemical Industry - The "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Sulfuric Acid Industry" outlines the content, methods, and procedures for energy conservation supervision in sulfuric acid production enterprises [5] - The "Technical Specification for Energy Conservation Supervision in the Polyvinyl Chloride Industry" provides similar guidelines for PVC resin production enterprises [5] Black Metallurgy Industry - The "Artificial Intelligence Empowered Waste Steel Intelligent Classification System Technical Requirements" specifies the system architecture, equipment requirements, data requirements, and system performance for intelligent classification of scrap steel [6] - The "Artificial Intelligence Empowered Online Detection System for Iron and Steel Ladle Erosion State" details the system architecture and performance requirements for detecting the erosion state of ladles in steel production [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The "Technical Specification for Wastewater Recycling in Cobalt Smelting Enterprises" outlines the overall requirements for wastewater treatment and recycling processes in cobalt smelting [7] - The "Technical Specification for Wastewater Recycling in Nickel Smelting Enterprises" provides similar guidelines for nickel smelting operations [7] Building Materials Industry - The "Technical Specification for Alkali-Resistant Glass Fiber Roving" includes classification, requirements, testing methods, and storage guidelines for alkali-resistant glass fibers [8] - The "Technical Specification for Water-Based Epoxy Modified Cement Floor Materials" details the classification, requirements, and testing methods for these materials used in construction [8] Machinery Industry - The "Technical Guidelines for Energy Conservation Diagnosis in the Heat Treatment Industry" establishes the principles and procedures for conducting energy conservation diagnostics in heat treatment enterprises [11] - The "Technical Specification for Filter Bag Frames for Bag Dust Collectors" specifies the classification and technical requirements for manufacturing filter bag frames [11] Additional Standards - The standards also include various technical specifications for other industries, such as lithium-ion battery materials, construction materials, and environmental protection equipment [9][10][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call discusses the impact of Indonesia's resource nationalism on coal, metals, and agriculture sectors, particularly focusing on aluminum, nickel, coal, and palm oil [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resource Nationalism in Indonesia**: Indonesia is strengthening control over its resources through measures such as reducing export quotas and combating illegal mining to address economic pressures and enhance resource prices [1][2][4]. - **Coal Supply Impact**: Indonesia's reduction of coal export quotas is expected to significantly affect global coal supply, especially for China, potentially leading to tighter domestic supply and price fluctuations between 800 to 1,000 RMB [1][8][6]. - **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: The acceleration of state control over the palm oil industry, combined with environmental sanctions and U.S. biofuel policies, is anticipated to drive a bull market in palm oil, with prices gradually increasing [1][10][11]. - **Nickel Price and Supply Adjustments**: A decline in nickel prices has led to losses in nickel smelting capacity, prompting the government to reduce nickel ore quotas by approximately 40% in 2026, which may reverse supply-demand dynamics and support price increases [1][13][14]. - **Tin Market Conditions**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand tightness, with significant contributions from China and Indonesia, and instability in regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo affecting prices [1][18][20]. Additional Important Content - **Government Policies**: Indonesia's government has implemented policies to combat illegal mining and reduce resource quotas, transitioning from multi-year to annual quota agreements, indicating a strong shift towards resource nationalism [4][5]. - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high spot ratios that can benefit from price increases, such as Liu'an Huanneng and Jin Kong Coal, which are seen as having significant upside potential [9][17]. - **Long-term Nickel Supply Concerns**: The long-term outlook for high-grade nickel resources is challenging, with expectations of depletion by 2035, necessitating solutions to address the shortage [16]. - **Tin Demand Resilience**: Despite potential price increases, the demand for tin, primarily in the electronics sector, is expected to remain stable, indicating a positive outlook for price growth [21][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Zanyu Technology**: The company has a competitive advantage due to its refinery in Indonesia, allowing it to produce refined products without export taxes, thus benefiting from rising palm oil prices [12]. - **Tin Industry Leaders**: Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous, both of which are positioned well in the current market environment and are expected to provide significant investment value [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel futures market is experiencing upward momentum driven by a weaker dollar, global mineral reserve plans, and macroeconomic factors supporting prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - London nickel closed at 17,395 USD per ton, up 350 USD or 2.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 10,074 contracts [1] - Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 closed at 135,770 CNY per ton, increasing by 3,100 CNY or 2.34% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global nickel supply is shifting from surplus to shortage due to tightening policies, geopolitical risks, and raw material shortages affecting high-quality nickel supply [2][3] - Demand is driven by the dual engines of new energy (high-nickel batteries) and stainless steel, with robust demand in emerging sectors offsetting traditional seasonal impacts [2][3] Group 3: Industry Leaders' Performance - Major nickel industry players are benefiting from rising nickel prices and demand, focusing on resource control and high-end capacity [3] - Domestic leaders like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenme are extending upstream into resource projects while also expanding into high-value downstream sectors [3] - The industry is characterized by a strong upstream, bottlenecks in midstream, and pressure in downstream processing due to high costs and structural raw material shortages [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to continue a strong upward trend, supported by macro liquidity, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand balance [4] - The core operational range for Shanghai nickel is projected to be between 135,000 and 136,000 CNY per ton [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Core Viewpoint - The electrolytic nickel market experienced a significant drop, with prices falling to 148,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3,800 yuan in a single day, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic shifts, tightened regulatory policies, high inventory pressures, and weak terminal demand [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The primary pressure for the price drop comes from a sudden cooling of macroeconomic sentiment, influenced by cautious policy stances from major global central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, leading to a strong dollar index that suppresses dollar-denominated commodities like nickel [1] - Domestic financial market regulatory policies aimed at curbing excessive speculation have accelerated the liquidation of previously accumulated long positions, contributing to the downward pressure [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is facing a significant contradiction between ample supply and weak demand, with global electrolytic nickel inventories at near-high levels, creating substantial spot market pressure [2] - The demand side shows weakness in both major downstream sectors, with the stainless steel industry facing reduced terminal consumption due to real estate sector drag, and the new energy battery sector experiencing a slowdown in growth [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Observations - The industry chain is undergoing structural pain, with upstream nickel ore prices remaining relatively firm, but cost pressures not being effectively transmitted to electrolytic nickel and downstream products [3] - Midstream smelting enterprises are facing dual challenges from environmental regulations and squeezed profit margins, while downstream stainless steel and battery material companies struggle to balance insufficient orders with raw material price fluctuations [3] Group 4: Industry Response and Long-term Outlook - Industry leaders are adapting to short-term volatility by optimizing raw material procurement and logistics, adjusting hedging strategies, and accelerating the transition to high-value, high-purity nickel products for new energy applications [4] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term growth trend driven by the energy transition remains intact, prompting industry consolidation and upgrades [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short term, electrolytic nickel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern, with a core range potentially shifting to around 146,000-149,000 yuan/ton, as high inventory levels take time to digest [5] - The market may seek weak stabilization in the coming week, as current prices approach cost levels for some production capacities, limiting further downside potential [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - On January 13, the nickel price declined and adjusted following the sector. The main contract closed down 2.21% at 138,450 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by more than 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain continued to rise. On January 13, the NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise in the context of global resource competition and policy disturbances in Indonesia, gradually moving out of the bottom area [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has alleviated market concerns about supply shortages, but the Indonesian government may continue to hype the situation, and the nickel price is expected to have significant upward elasticity before the policy is finalized, with high market volatility [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On January 13, the nickel price dropped with the sector. The main contract closed at 138,450 yuan/ton, down 2.21%, and the total open interest decreased by over 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain rose. The NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price may rise due to global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has eased supply shortage concerns, but the government may still hype the situation, and the nickel price is likely to be highly volatile before the policy is determined. Caution is advised, and risk control is necessary [8]. Group 5: Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at around 290 million tons to match smelter capacity [9]. - The government aims to adjust production quotas for nickel and coal to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves [9]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, but the government says the data is still being integrated to ensure the profitability of the downstream industry without heavy reliance on imports [10]. - Due to the lack of government approval for the 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining operations, but management expects the license to be approved soon, and the temporary suspension is not expected to affect the long - term sustainability of the joint venture. The impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].