投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 镍：底部运行，警惕供给端扰动 报告日期 2025-9-29 四季度报告 ⚫ 观点总结 展望四季度，美联储降息路径仍有不确定性，国内稳增长政策有望陆 续出台，"反内卷"叙事影响反复，镍价仍受到宏观事件带来的阶段 性影响。基本面来看，原生镍过剩格局延续，需求端暂难有起色，镍 价料底部盘整，价格对供给端扰动更为敏感，四季度重点关注矿端消 息及宏观变化，纯镍估值区间可关注一体化电积镍生产成本（随矿价 浮动）。操作上以短线区间为主，可持续通过卖出虚值看涨期权等组 合策略增厚收益，注意控制风险。 ⚫ 风险提示 资源国镍相关政策变动、国内外宏观消息扰动、镍库存变化 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 LME&SHFE 镍价格走势 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源：Wind 往期相关报告 1.基本面暂乏驱动，镍不锈钢宽幅 震荡 2025.08.20 2.不锈钢期货震荡反弹，关注期现 正套机会 2025.08.05 3.印尼 PNBP 镍新政落地，影响如 何？2025.04.17 投资观点： 区间震荡 | 镍（NI） | | --- | 分析师： ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 节前扰动有限 镍价震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美国二季度经济数据表现亮眼，GDP增速及个人消 费增速超市场预期，劳动力市场高频数据彰显韧性，但通胀 压力略有抬升。而从8月数据来看，核心PCE增速放缓，个人 消费支出增速略超预期，消费韧性下通胀曲率放平，滞涨风 险似有消退。报告期内，美联储官员密集发声，但票委间对 降息路径存 ...

民生证券发布研报称，力勤资源与合作伙伴在印尼Obi岛合作投资镍冶炼产线，湿法镍规划产能合计12 万吨镍+1.4万吨钴，权益产能6.9万吨镍+0.82万吨钴，2024年已全部投产;火法项目一期产能9.5万吨，已 与2023年投产，二期项目部分产线已于2025H1投产，2026年全部投产，公司产能将增至28万吨，权益 产能增至15.5万吨，产能弹性大。 智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，9月25日，力勤资源(02245)股东将股票由德意志银行转 入华盛资本证券，转仓市值5.43亿港元，占比4.86%。 ...

民生证券发布研报称，力勤资源与合作伙伴在印尼Obi岛合作投资镍冶炼产线，湿法镍规划产能合计12 万吨镍+1.4万吨钴，权益产能6.9万吨镍+0.82万吨钴，2024年已全部投产;火法项目一期产能9.5万吨，已 与2023年投产，二期项目部分产线已于2025H1投产，2026年全部投产，公司产能将增至28万吨，权益 产能增至15.5万吨，产能弹性大。 香港联交所最新资料显示，9月25日，力勤资源(02245)股东将股票由德意志银行转入华盛资本证券，转 仓市值5.43亿港元，占比4.86%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of leading global nickel smelter, Lygend Resources (2245.HK), surged over 17% to a record high of 17.95 HKD, with trading volume reaching 320 million HKD, driven by news of the Democratic Republic of Congo lifting its cobalt export ban and implementing annual export quotas [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's largest supplier of cobalt, will allow the export of up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support, indicating a potential for price recovery [1]. Group 2: Company Positioning - Lygend Resources' wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is unaffected by the export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing the company to fully benefit from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1]. - The combination of new production capacity and cost advantages significantly enhances the growth potential of Lygend Resources [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, with the dot - plot indicating 2 more potential rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell emphasized the need to prevent labor market risks and the existence of inflation risks [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September, but the overall impact on the spot market was limited. Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October", ferronickel still had an upward trend, but the increase was weakening. Nickel salts remained popular, with the production of ternary materials increasing monthly, and the consumption of power terminals improving marginally. Pure nickel showed little change [3]. - Domestically, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, which may provide a second - round boost to the macro - environment. Nickel prices have fallen to the lower end of the range and are expected to be corrected technically. However, the fundamentals show no obvious driving force, and the inventory accumulation pressure has increased, indicating weak downstream consumption. It is expected that nickel prices may rise slightly driven by the macro - environment and technical factors [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Wednesday. The new dot - plot implies 2 more rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell stated that this rate cut was preventive, and the Fed was optimistic about the future economic outlook [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September. The market is concerned about the RKAB approval in October [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 3.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The profit margins of some processes improved. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia and Norway, and exports also increased. As of September 18, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1272.68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron rose slightly. In August, China's ferronickel production increased by 11.77% month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 15, the inventory of ferronickel decreased. In July, imports increased year - on - year, with significant changes in imports from different countries [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In August, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel increased. As of September 15, the inventory increased slightly. In September, steel mills' production plans increased, and the de - stocking trend may continue [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In August, the production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The downstream and upstream inventory days remained stable. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of high - demand but soft - price [9]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 59.8%. The inventory of the passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the production - sales ratio has increased. The subsidy policy may have limited impact on demand [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 429 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 2314 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3360 tons, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 5674 tons [10]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia announced the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore in September, which increased by about 0.68% compared to the first - phase [13]. - Antam and CATL plan to invest $1.9 billion in building a comprehensive nickel smelter in Indonesia. The HPAL project aims to produce 55,000 tons of MHP per year, and the RKEF smelter aims to produce 88,000 tons of NPI per year [13]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Group 1 - The company is currently in the ramp-up phase of its nickel smelting production capacity in Indonesia, indicating that full production capacity has not yet been reached [2] - Overall operational conditions are reported to be good, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's performance [2] - As production capacity gradually increases, the company expects to enhance its industrial synergy, effectively reduce comprehensive production costs, and improve product profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - Liken Resources (02245) reported significant growth in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached approximately 18.1466 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.8% [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company was around 1.426 billion HKD, up 143.0% compared to the previous year [1] - Earnings per share stood at 0.92 HKD [1] Production and Operational Highlights - The growth in revenue and profit was primarily due to a substantial increase in the production of hydrometallurgical products such as nickel-cobalt hydroxide and pyrometallurgical products like nickel iron [1] - The increase in production was attributed to the full operational capacity of the ONC project and the production release from the KPS project [1] - The company optimized its product structure and implemented refined cost control management, along with technological improvements to enhance production processes and profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production from key projects and improved operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 18.1466 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.8% [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 1.426 billion, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 143.0% [1] - Earnings per share stood at 0.92 yuan [1] Operational Highlights - The growth in revenue and profit was primarily due to a significant increase in the production of hydrometallurgical products such as nickel-cobalt hydroxide and pyrometallurgical products like nickel iron [1] - The ONC project achieved full production capacity, and the KPS project contributed to the release of production capacity [1] - The company optimized its product structure and implemented refined cost control management, along with technological improvements to enhance production processes, further boosting profitability [1]