成本抬升支撑镍价偏强 震荡 镍周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：本周高镍生铁价格维持强势，周五SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面，上游 厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重心上移。整体来看，上 下游博弈仍在延续，但在刚需成交的支撑下，高镍生铁价格继续走强。 ◆ 中 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call discusses the impact of Indonesia's resource nationalism on coal, metals, and agriculture sectors, particularly focusing on aluminum, nickel, coal, and palm oil [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resource Nationalism in Indonesia**: Indonesia is strengthening control over its resources through measures such as reducing export quotas and combating illegal mining to address economic pressures and enhance resource prices [1][2][4]. - **Coal Supply Impact**: Indonesia's reduction of coal export quotas is expected to significantly affect global coal supply, especially for China, potentially leading to tighter domestic supply and price fluctuations between 800 to 1,000 RMB [1][8][6]. - **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: The acceleration of state control over the palm oil industry, combined with environmental sanctions and U.S. biofuel policies, is anticipated to drive a bull market in palm oil, with prices gradually increasing [1][10][11]. - **Nickel Price and Supply Adjustments**: A decline in nickel prices has led to losses in nickel smelting capacity, prompting the government to reduce nickel ore quotas by approximately 40% in 2026, which may reverse supply-demand dynamics and support price increases [1][13][14]. - **Tin Market Conditions**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand tightness, with significant contributions from China and Indonesia, and instability in regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo affecting prices [1][18][20]. Additional Important Content - **Government Policies**: Indonesia's government has implemented policies to combat illegal mining and reduce resource quotas, transitioning from multi-year to annual quota agreements, indicating a strong shift towards resource nationalism [4][5]. - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high spot ratios that can benefit from price increases, such as Liu'an Huanneng and Jin Kong Coal, which are seen as having significant upside potential [9][17]. - **Long-term Nickel Supply Concerns**: The long-term outlook for high-grade nickel resources is challenging, with expectations of depletion by 2035, necessitating solutions to address the shortage [16]. - **Tin Demand Resilience**: Despite potential price increases, the demand for tin, primarily in the electronics sector, is expected to remain stable, indicating a positive outlook for price growth [21][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Zanyu Technology**: The company has a competitive advantage due to its refinery in Indonesia, allowing it to produce refined products without export taxes, thus benefiting from rising palm oil prices [12]. - **Tin Industry Leaders**: Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous, both of which are positioned well in the current market environment and are expected to provide significant investment value [22][24].

上游（采矿）：资源稀缺，矿企议价能力强，盈利丰厚。 中游（冶炼）：受制于原料紧张和二级镍向一级镍转化的技术瓶颈，高品质产品供应不足，库存多为交 割囤货，实际流通货源有限。 下游（加工与终端）：面临高成本和原料结构性短缺的双重压力，普遍采取低库存策略，部分中小企业 产能收缩。全产业链低库存与结构性矛盾是核心特征。 镍期货市场：美元下跌提振及全球关键矿产储备计划升温，隔夜伦镍收涨2.05%；伦镍最新收盘报 17395，比前一交易日上涨350美元/吨，涨幅为2.05%，成交10074手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍高位运 行，尾盘大幅收涨，沪镍主力合约2603最新收报135770元/吨，上涨3100元/吨，涨幅为2.34%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月3日伦镍库存报285528吨，较前一交易日库存量持平。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2603合约开盘报135400涨2730，9：10分沪镍主力2603 合约报135780涨3110；沪期镍开盘高高走，盘面维持高位运行；宏观面，国内央行逆回购加量续作，流 动性宽松预期升温，利好工业金属市场情绪，带动镍价联动走强；国外：美元震荡偏弱、美股避险资金 分流，叠加美联 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

1月19日，电解镍市场突现重挫，据长江有色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场报价跌至147,500-150,200 元/吨，均价报148,850元/吨，单日暴跌超3,800元，跌幅逾2.5%。此番急跌并非单一利空所致，而是宏 观预期转向、政策监管收紧、高库存压力与终端需求疲软等多重因素叠加共振，导致市场恐慌情绪集中 释放的结果。 一、宏观面：内外部压力形成"双杀"格局 本次价格剧烈回调，首要压力来自宏观情绪的骤然降温。外部方面，全球主要央行特别是美联储的政策 立场趋于审慎，市场对早期降息的乐观预期大幅消退，推动美元指数强势上行，对包括镍在内的美元计 价商品构成普遍压制，风险资金从大宗商品领域流出迹象明显。内部层面，国内金融市场监管政策旨在 抑制过度投机，相关交易规则的调整在落地前已引发前期累积的多头头寸加速了结。同时，前期市场已 对部分结构性货币政策利好进行了充分定价，新的增量支撑有限，宏观面呈现"外压内控"的双重利空环 境。 二、供需面：高库存"堰塞湖"遭遇需求"季节性寒流" 当前市场最核心的矛盾在于显著的供应宽松与疲软的现实需求。供应端，全球范围内电解镍显性库存持 续攀升，无论是国内期货交易所还是海外主要仓库， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - On January 13, the nickel price declined and adjusted following the sector. The main contract closed down 2.21% at 138,450 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by more than 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain continued to rise. On January 13, the NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise in the context of global resource competition and policy disturbances in Indonesia, gradually moving out of the bottom area [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has alleviated market concerns about supply shortages, but the Indonesian government may continue to hype the situation, and the nickel price is expected to have significant upward elasticity before the policy is finalized, with high market volatility [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On January 13, the nickel price dropped with the sector. The main contract closed at 138,450 yuan/ton, down 2.21%, and the total open interest decreased by over 11,000 lots to 400,000 lots [8]. - The prices of other products in the industry chain rose. The NPI quotation increased by 9.5 to 980.5 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price increased by 150 to 32,850 yuan/ton [8]. - In the medium term, the nickel price may rise due to global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances [8]. - The statement from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has eased supply shortage concerns, but the government may still hype the situation, and the nickel price is likely to be highly volatile before the policy is determined. Caution is advised, and risk control is necessary [8]. Group 5: Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at around 290 million tons to match smelter capacity [9]. - The government aims to adjust production quotas for nickel and coal to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves [9]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, but the government says the data is still being integrated to ensure the profitability of the downstream industry without heavy reliance on imports [10]. - Due to the lack of government approval for the 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining operations, but management expects the license to be approved soon, and the temporary suspension is not expected to affect the long - term sustainability of the joint venture. The impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].

Group 1 - Nickel prices surged over 10% on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching a peak of $18,545 per ton, marking the largest intraday increase since 2022, with a cumulative rise of over 20% in the past two weeks [1] - The core logic behind the price increase is the strengthening expectation of supply contraction, driven by the suspension of nickel mining activities by Indonesia's Vale due to unapproved annual work plans [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas by 250 million tons by 2026, which has intensified supply constraint expectations, significantly boosting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the suspension of nickel mining by Vale and the Indonesian government's quota reduction plan are expected to accelerate the supply-demand rebalancing in the nickel industry [2] - The long-term upward trend for industrial metals remains intact, supported by supply shortages in copper and expectations of mid-term easing from the Federal Reserve, with nickel benefiting from supply contraction and renewable energy demand [2] - The rise in nickel prices will directly benefit nickel mining, smelting, and nickel-cobalt new material companies, while also exerting cost pressure on downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy batteries [2] Group 3 - Company Greenme focuses on the recycling and manufacturing of new energy battery materials, possessing nickel resource recovery and smelting capacity, and has established stable cooperation with downstream battery enterprises [3] - Company Huaxin Environmental's subsidiary, Anhui Huaxin Jintong Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., primarily produces cathode copper from black copper refining, along with gold, silver, and nickel products [3]