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何愚:三年后再吃5元一碗的牛肉面,深入县域才能保持体感丨2025尾声
36氪· 2026-01-26 13:58
以下文章来源于暗涌Waves ,作者何愚 暗涌Waves . 钱的流向,人的沉浮。36氪旗下投资报道账号。 "不仅关于消费或投资。" 文 | 黑蚁资本 何愚 来源| 暗涌Waves(ID:waves36kr) 封面来源 | IC Photo 2026年的1/12即将走完,"暗涌Waves"的"2025尾声"仍在继续。对于中国人来说,农历春节未至,真正的一年似乎总还没走到尽头。有384天的漫长乙巳蛇年 还有两周有余也将收起它绵长的尾,这个新旧交替的时刻,有人想将中国社会长尾中真实的脉动带到人们眼前。 黑蚁资本创始合伙人何愚选择以一份"田野笔记"来参与"2025尾声"。 在这场跨年专题的参与者中,何愚是一个挺特别的存在。当一级市场的"主流"投资人沉浸在AI agent、具身智能的投资热潮里时,他和黑蚁资本的团队走到 了广东佛冈、湖南汨罗、河北安国等地的县镇街头,去发现一个个不在主流语境里的故事。 这也不是黑蚁资本第一次在县域的街头"扫街"了。2021年到2022年,团队就曾深入495个县域,带回了一份在创投圈引起不小反响的县域研究报告。 那为何在三年后重返? 何愚告诉"暗涌Waves",他的动机挺简单的:那个市场 ...
何愚:三年后再吃5元一碗的牛肉面,深入县域才能保持体感丨2025尾声
暗涌Waves· 2026-01-26 04:05
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the unique dynamics of China's lower-tier cities and the potential investment opportunities that arise from them, particularly through field research and direct engagement with local markets [2][5][6]. Group 1: Field Research and Insights - The company has conducted extensive field research in various counties, including Guangdong and Hunan, to uncover stories and market dynamics that are often overlooked by mainstream investors [2][3]. - Previous research efforts involved visiting 495 counties, resulting in a significant report that garnered attention in the venture capital community [3]. - The motivation behind this research is to gain a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in lower-tier cities, which are often neglected by traditional investment strategies [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Insights from interviews indicate that while individual life satisfaction may have decreased due to economic pressures, overall satisfaction levels in county residents remain stable [13][14]. - Economic pressure is increasingly mentioned by residents, leading to a shift in spending habits where non-essential expenditures are being cut, particularly those associated with social status [16][17]. - Despite the perception of economic pressure, actual income levels for many families have remained stable or even increased, suggesting a disconnect between perceived and actual financial conditions [20][22]. Group 3: Changes in Work and Migration Attitudes - There is a noticeable increase in the perception of a faster work pace among county residents, with nearly half reporting feeling busier compared to previous years [24]. - Interest in migrating to larger cities has decreased, with residents weighing the costs and benefits more critically than before [26]. - Homeownership remains a priority, but the impact of housing prices on consumer behavior is limited, as many residents do not feel a strong connection to the fluctuations in the real estate market [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company categorizes consumer spending into efficiency-driven and experience-driven consumption, noting a growing interest in experience-based spending among county residents [34][37]. - The supply landscape in lower-tier cities is characterized by a lack of quality and variety, which presents opportunities for businesses that can offer better value and experiences [38][39]. - The potential for explosive growth in certain categories is linked to the ability to meet the emerging demands of consumers in these markets, driven by innovative supply solutions [40][48]. Group 5: Gender Dynamics and Social Change - The article highlights the income disparity between genders in county areas, with a significant portion of women earning below 35,000 yuan annually, reflecting broader societal issues [49][50]. - There is a budding awareness among county women regarding their self-identity and roles, which could influence future consumption patterns and market dynamics [50][51]. - The focus on women's self-awareness is not merely a consumption trend but indicates a shift in societal attitudes that could lead to structural changes in the market [50][52].