报告概要 01 整体消费趋势：从"报复性增长"转向"平稳务实" ⦁ 2025年消费市场整体趋稳，41.5%的受访者表示消费支出与去年持平，这是近三年来"基本没变化"占比首次成为主流。此前2023年超半数人消费增加，如 今"报复性消费"热潮已退，人们进入更平稳的消费节奏。 ⦁ 95后是消费意愿最强的群体，44%的人花得比去年多，消费净增长值（增加比例减去减少比例）领跑所有年龄段。相比之下，80后成为唯一消费净增长为 负的群体，年龄越大消费越谨慎。 ⦁ 收入变化直接决定消费行为：收入增加的人群中，近三分之二选择多花钱；收入减少的人群中，超半数削减开支。有钱就花、没钱就省，成为最朴素的消 费逻辑。 02 消费流向与决策逻辑的十一大发现 ⦁ 发现1：体验型消费持续走热，户外取代室内娱乐。 约四成受访者为旅游和户外活动增加开支，旅游消费净值高达26.4个百分点。而KTV、剧本杀等室内 社交娱乐业态明显萎缩，净值分别为-11.4和-9.9个百分点。 ⦁ 发现2："保命主义"成为消费刚需。 食品饮料、服装鞋包、营养保健品是消费净增长最高的三大品类。保健品不再只是中老年专属，各年龄段年轻人均将 其视为"新刚需"，双11期间天 ...

发布时间：2026-02-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资 止跌企稳仍需政策呵护》 - 2026.02.02 宏观研究 春节假期宏观大事分析 核心观点 （1）2026 年春节假期是近年来最长假期，通过跟踪春假假期数 据可知，近年春假长假居民出行需求旺盛，"反向团圆"成为新亮点； 全国文旅市场景气度上升，2026 年春节假期，全国国内旅游市场迎来 历史性爆发，值得注意的是，部分省市文旅市场呈现"量增价弱"现 象；在消费方面，商品消费品质升级，服务消费多元发展，体验型消 费成为主流；电影票房承压，触及近五年低点，且量价齐跌，供需错 配或是主要原因。 （2）美国关税政策再起波澜，美国最高法院裁决对等关税和芬 太尼关税违宪，但特朗普援引 122 条款新增 10%关税，后将关税税率 升至 15%，反映美国特朗普政府主导全球贸易秩序的底层逻辑并未发 生变化。 仅从当 ...

发布时间：2026-02-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资 止跌企稳仍需政策呵护》 - 2026.02.02 宏观研究 春节假期宏观大事分析 核心观点 （1）2026 年春节假期是近年来最长假期，通过跟踪春假假期数 据可知，近年春假长假居民出行需求旺盛，"反向团圆"成为新亮点； 全国文旅市场景气度上升，2026 年春节假期，全国国内旅游市场迎来 历史性爆发，值得注意的是，部分省市文旅市场呈现"量增价弱"现 象；在消费方面，商品消费品质升级，服务消费多元发展，体验型消 费成为主流；电影票房承压，触及近五年低点，且量价齐跌，供需错 配或是主要原因。 （2）美国关税政策再起波澜，美国最高法院裁决对等关税和芬 太尼关税违宪，但特朗普援引 122 条款新增 10%关税，后将关税税率 升至 15%，反映美国特朗普政府主导全球贸易秩序的底层逻辑并未发 生变化。 仅从当 ...

容易上手 创作有乐趣 放慢节奏 让人不焦虑 年轻人涌进DIY拼豆店 在追求效率与意义的当下，一群年轻人却甘愿被一颗颗微小的塑料豆子"定"在桌前数小时。这并非儿童 专属的玩具，而是一股席卷社交网络的手作小风潮——拼豆。 从复古像素画到个性化的"社交货币"，这些五颜六色的小豆究竟有何吸引力，让年轻人涌入DIY拼豆 店，为沉浸在"慢时光"里买单。 一颗小豆的进化史 从益智玩具到社交宠儿 拼豆(Perler Beads)又称熔融豆、像素画，看似简单，却有一套固定的程序：玩家需用镊子，将五颜六色 的塑料小豆依照图纸一颗颗码放在带孔模板上，拼组成图案后，再经熨斗热熔，使豆子相互黏合、定 型。这项活动的历史可追溯到上世纪。 据了解，上世纪70年代，一位瑞典工程师偶然发现这种塑料珠并申请了专利；80年代，这一塑料珠引入 北美后，被改良为儿童益智玩具并推出套件，"拼豆"由此得名。最初，它多用于老人的康复训练与儿童 教育。后来，其独特的像素化风格与各类卡通、游戏IP的图案天然适配，逐渐突破了年龄与场景的界 限，俘获了年轻人的心。 如今，拼豆已演变为兼具个性化创作与社交分享属性的热门活动。在某生活类社交平台上，相关话题浏 览量持续 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising popularity of Perler Beads, a DIY craft that has captivated young people, particularly women, as a form of creative expression and social sharing [1][2][4]. Group 1: Evolution and Appeal of Perler Beads - Perler Beads, originally designed as educational toys, have transformed into a popular DIY activity that allows for personalized creations and social interaction [1][2]. - The activity involves arranging colorful plastic beads on a template and fusing them with heat, which has evolved from a simple pastime to a complex creative outlet [1][2]. Group 2: Social Media and Community Engagement - The topic of Perler Beads has garnered significant attention on social media, with over 5.04 billion views and more than 17 million participants discussing it on a lifestyle platform [2]. - Players often share their creations and designs online, fostering a sense of community and encouraging interaction among enthusiasts [2][4]. Group 3: Psychological and Emotional Benefits - Engaging in Perler Beads provides a sense of immersion and focus, allowing individuals to escape the fragmented nature of modern life and experience a "flow state" [3][12]. - The repetitive nature of the craft can be therapeutic, helping individuals manage stress and enhance their emotional well-being through creative expression [12][13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The low entry cost of Perler Beads has contributed to their rapid popularity, with basic kits priced affordably, making them accessible to a wide audience [6][7]. - As consumers become more invested in the craft, there is a trend towards higher spending on quality materials, with some enthusiasts spending thousands on supplies [7][9]. Group 5: Offline Experience and Retail Growth - The rise of physical stores offering Perler Bead crafting experiences has complemented online sales, providing a space for social interaction and focused creativity [9][10]. - These stores offer a comprehensive service, including materials and guidance, which enhances the overall crafting experience and attracts a diverse customer base [10][11].

从20世纪80年代的布匹烟酒，到90年代的米面粮油，再到如今的无人机、国潮文创等"中国好物""国货 之光"，《金融时报》记者连日来走访春节年货市场，发现年轻人的年货清单，正悄悄变了模样。 在大疆国贸商城旗舰店，不少年轻人围着展示台，仔细研究各款无人机产品，时不时发出赞叹。 "看，这是我为自己准备的'电子年货'。"来自北京平谷区的女孩李冉（化名）拿着刚刚下单的大疆最新 款运动相机，兴奋地展示给记者看："今年赶上'史上最长春节假期'，早早就约好了朋友，利用假期后 半段去天津深度游，这次做了个升级换代，就当作送给自己的新年礼物。" 另一对小情侣王浩（化名）和张琪（化名），在店内耗时许久，最终选定一款心仪已久的无人机。与李 冉不同的是，他们着实"下了一回血本"，趁着春节前入手了防风性能最强、稳定性最好的"终极款"产 品，尤其适合户外开阔场景的航拍。 "大年初五，我们就飞往印度尼西亚旅行，那里允许游客携带无人机入境，虽然花了些银子，但这份'大 件儿'年货，符合我们的审美，满足我们的需求，期待这趟印尼之旅。"王浩和张琪对记者说，这款承载 硬核技术的"电子年货"，是"中国制造"中的高端产品，贵有贵的理由，他们也愿意把钱花在 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is driving a surge in consumer spending, with a shift from merely purchasing goods to focusing on experience and service, indicating an upgrade in consumption quality [1][5] Group 1: Trends in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly participating in both online and offline "New Year Goods Festival" activities, reflecting a cultural significance and a festive atmosphere [1][2] - There is a notable shift in dietary habits towards healthier and more nutritious options, with retailers offering traceability for food products to ensure safety and quality [4] - The trend of "buying experiences" rather than just goods is emerging, with services like home cleaning gaining popularity among consumers [5][6] Group 2: Retail Strategies and Innovations - Retail platforms are implementing various promotional strategies, such as large discounts and consumer coupons, to stimulate spending during the New Year Goods Festival [3][4] - Instant retail services are being enhanced to meet the demand for quick delivery, allowing consumers to receive products within 30 minutes, thus supporting the shift towards "on-demand" purchasing [5][6] - The integration of cultural elements and local specialties into the New Year Goods Festival is being emphasized, creating immersive shopping experiences for consumers [3][6]

Core Insights - The rise of "pixel art" made from "beads" reflects the enthusiasm of Generation Z for experiential and emotional consumption [1][8] - The number of "bead" stores in Changsha has surpassed 100, indicating a growing market [1][7] Industry Overview - The popularity of "beads" has led to a rapid increase in DIY handcraft stores, with over 100 offering bead services in Changsha [7] - Many stores are adopting a price competition strategy, with some offering unlimited experience tickets for as low as 19.9 yuan [7] - The business model is characterized by low entry barriers and high competition, leading to reduced profit margins for operators [7] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are drawn to the creative and personal aspects of making bead art, which allows for self-expression and emotional fulfillment [8] - The experience of creating bead art is seen as therapeutic, providing a sense of accomplishment and stress relief [8] Market Performance - Sales of beads on major e-commerce platforms reached 291 million yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 896.46% [8] - The trend is expected to continue as the industry adapts to consumer preferences and explores new creative avenues [8]

以下文章来源于暗涌Waves ，作者何愚 暗涌Waves . 钱的流向，人的沉浮。36氪旗下投资报道账号。 "不仅关于消费或投资。" 文 ｜ 黑蚁资本 何愚 来源｜ 暗涌Waves（ID：waves36kr） 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 2026年的1/12即将走完，"暗涌Waves"的"2025尾声"仍在继续。对于中国人来说，农历春节未至，真正的一年似乎总还没走到尽头。有384天的漫长乙巳蛇年 还有两周有余也将收起它绵长的尾，这个新旧交替的时刻，有人想将中国社会长尾中真实的脉动带到人们眼前。 黑蚁资本创始合伙人何愚选择以一份"田野笔记"来参与"2025尾声"。 在这场跨年专题的参与者中，何愚是一个挺特别的存在。当一级市场的"主流"投资人沉浸在AI agent、具身智能的投资热潮里时，他和黑蚁资本的团队走到 了广东佛冈、湖南汨罗、河北安国等地的县镇街头，去发现一个个不在主流语境里的故事。 这也不是黑蚁资本第一次在县域的街头"扫街"了。2021年到2022年，团队就曾深入495个县域，带回了一份在创投圈引起不小反响的县域研究报告。 那为何在三年后重返？ 何愚告诉"暗涌Waves"，他的动机挺简单的：那个市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the unique dynamics of China's lower-tier cities and the potential investment opportunities that arise from them, particularly through field research and direct engagement with local markets [2][5][6]. Group 1: Field Research and Insights - The company has conducted extensive field research in various counties, including Guangdong and Hunan, to uncover stories and market dynamics that are often overlooked by mainstream investors [2][3]. - Previous research efforts involved visiting 495 counties, resulting in a significant report that garnered attention in the venture capital community [3]. - The motivation behind this research is to gain a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in lower-tier cities, which are often neglected by traditional investment strategies [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Insights from interviews indicate that while individual life satisfaction may have decreased due to economic pressures, overall satisfaction levels in county residents remain stable [13][14]. - Economic pressure is increasingly mentioned by residents, leading to a shift in spending habits where non-essential expenditures are being cut, particularly those associated with social status [16][17]. - Despite the perception of economic pressure, actual income levels for many families have remained stable or even increased, suggesting a disconnect between perceived and actual financial conditions [20][22]. Group 3: Changes in Work and Migration Attitudes - There is a noticeable increase in the perception of a faster work pace among county residents, with nearly half reporting feeling busier compared to previous years [24]. - Interest in migrating to larger cities has decreased, with residents weighing the costs and benefits more critically than before [26]. - Homeownership remains a priority, but the impact of housing prices on consumer behavior is limited, as many residents do not feel a strong connection to the fluctuations in the real estate market [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company categorizes consumer spending into efficiency-driven and experience-driven consumption, noting a growing interest in experience-based spending among county residents [34][37]. - The supply landscape in lower-tier cities is characterized by a lack of quality and variety, which presents opportunities for businesses that can offer better value and experiences [38][39]. - The potential for explosive growth in certain categories is linked to the ability to meet the emerging demands of consumers in these markets, driven by innovative supply solutions [40][48]. Group 5: Gender Dynamics and Social Change - The article highlights the income disparity between genders in county areas, with a significant portion of women earning below 35,000 yuan annually, reflecting broader societal issues [49][50]. - There is a budding awareness among county women regarding their self-identity and roles, which could influence future consumption patterns and market dynamics [50][51]. - The focus on women's self-awareness is not merely a consumption trend but indicates a shift in societal attitudes that could lead to structural changes in the market [50][52].