港交所再现震撼一幕。 今日（1 月 28 日），湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司（简称 " 鸣鸣很忙 "）挂牌上市，成为港股 " 量贩零食第 一股 "。此次 IPO 基石投资者 集结腾讯、淡马锡、贝莱德、富达等十余家国际顶 级机构，开盘大涨 80%，市值超 900 亿。 也许很多人还记得，2023 年 11 月零食很忙和赵一鸣零食官宣合并，鸣鸣很忙由此诞生。但可能鲜少有人清楚，作为合并前赵一鸣零食的唯 一财 务投资人，黑蚁资本从 2023 年初的首轮领投，到数度加注，再到赵一鸣零食与零食很忙合并后，见证并深度参与了这场零售行业的价值链重构。 这三年的历程更像是一场投资人与企业的共同成长，赵一鸣零食从行业前十之外跻身头部阵营，鸣鸣很忙则从合并走向万店、奔向两万店——成 长为国内第 一个跨越 28 个省份、所有线级城市、59% 的门店位于县城乡镇的零售企业。 如果回望一轮又一轮消费浪潮中走出的标志性公司，更早的喜茶、元气森林，到全球瞩目的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金，再到如今的鸣鸣很忙以及即将 IPO 的袁记食品，黑蚁可能是少有的能够抓住每一波浪潮的机构。 做最 好的消费投资机构，这或许不是一个当下主流的叙事，但偏执和独立 ...

1月28日，港股市场迎来一个"不走寻常路"的企业——湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司。它的主要 市场，并非繁华的一线都市，而是广袤的中国县域。截至发稿，鸣鸣很忙的市值超900亿港元。 鸣鸣很忙的崛起备受瞩目。其实它的成功并非偶然。FBIF关注到，县域市场的"刻板印象"正被逐一打 破。对于食饮行业而言，读懂县城消费的"反直觉"密码，无疑是打开增量空间的关键钥匙。 鸣鸣很忙集 团；图片来源：鸣鸣很忙集团 那么县域市场，有着哪些"消费新现象"？ 调研显示，现在的县城人群对收入预期并不悲观。他们收入看涨，支出预期同步攀升。 他们不像过去那样关心"在别人眼中我是否过得还不错"。中产身份认同感显著淡化，在年轻一代中这一 趋势尤为明显。 同时折叠消费成为常态。县城人群愿意买9.9元的眼影和1.5万元的金手镯，品质需求和极致性价比共 存。 县域市场； 图片来源：黑蚁资本 我们需要意识到，县域不是泛泛的"低线市场"，而是由县级市、县和自治县组成的中国真正的腰部大众 市场。 根据《中国统计年鉴2024》的数据，截至2023年底，全国有1813个县级行政区划，这些地域的主城区和 周边城镇（不包含乡村）统称为县域。[1] 县域是国家 ...

以下文章来源于暗涌Waves ，作者何愚 暗涌Waves . 钱的流向，人的沉浮。36氪旗下投资报道账号。 "不仅关于消费或投资。" 文 ｜ 黑蚁资本 何愚 来源｜ 暗涌Waves（ID：waves36kr） 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 2026年的1/12即将走完，"暗涌Waves"的"2025尾声"仍在继续。对于中国人来说，农历春节未至，真正的一年似乎总还没走到尽头。有384天的漫长乙巳蛇年 还有两周有余也将收起它绵长的尾，这个新旧交替的时刻，有人想将中国社会长尾中真实的脉动带到人们眼前。 黑蚁资本创始合伙人何愚选择以一份"田野笔记"来参与"2025尾声"。 在这场跨年专题的参与者中，何愚是一个挺特别的存在。当一级市场的"主流"投资人沉浸在AI agent、具身智能的投资热潮里时，他和黑蚁资本的团队走到 了广东佛冈、湖南汨罗、河北安国等地的县镇街头，去发现一个个不在主流语境里的故事。 这也不是黑蚁资本第一次在县域的街头"扫街"了。2021年到2022年，团队就曾深入495个县域，带回了一份在创投圈引起不小反响的县域研究报告。 那为何在三年后重返？ 何愚告诉"暗涌Waves"，他的动机挺简单的：那个市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the unique dynamics of China's lower-tier cities and the potential investment opportunities that arise from them, particularly through field research and direct engagement with local markets [2][5][6]. Group 1: Field Research and Insights - The company has conducted extensive field research in various counties, including Guangdong and Hunan, to uncover stories and market dynamics that are often overlooked by mainstream investors [2][3]. - Previous research efforts involved visiting 495 counties, resulting in a significant report that garnered attention in the venture capital community [3]. - The motivation behind this research is to gain a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in lower-tier cities, which are often neglected by traditional investment strategies [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Insights from interviews indicate that while individual life satisfaction may have decreased due to economic pressures, overall satisfaction levels in county residents remain stable [13][14]. - Economic pressure is increasingly mentioned by residents, leading to a shift in spending habits where non-essential expenditures are being cut, particularly those associated with social status [16][17]. - Despite the perception of economic pressure, actual income levels for many families have remained stable or even increased, suggesting a disconnect between perceived and actual financial conditions [20][22]. Group 3: Changes in Work and Migration Attitudes - There is a noticeable increase in the perception of a faster work pace among county residents, with nearly half reporting feeling busier compared to previous years [24]. - Interest in migrating to larger cities has decreased, with residents weighing the costs and benefits more critically than before [26]. - Homeownership remains a priority, but the impact of housing prices on consumer behavior is limited, as many residents do not feel a strong connection to the fluctuations in the real estate market [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The company categorizes consumer spending into efficiency-driven and experience-driven consumption, noting a growing interest in experience-based spending among county residents [34][37]. - The supply landscape in lower-tier cities is characterized by a lack of quality and variety, which presents opportunities for businesses that can offer better value and experiences [38][39]. - The potential for explosive growth in certain categories is linked to the ability to meet the emerging demands of consumers in these markets, driven by innovative supply solutions [40][48]. Group 5: Gender Dynamics and Social Change - The article highlights the income disparity between genders in county areas, with a significant portion of women earning below 35,000 yuan annually, reflecting broader societal issues [49][50]. - There is a budding awareness among county women regarding their self-identity and roles, which could influence future consumption patterns and market dynamics [50][51]. - The focus on women's self-awareness is not merely a consumption trend but indicates a shift in societal attitudes that could lead to structural changes in the market [50][52].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumer market is expected to deepen its development along the path of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement by 2026, driven by macroeconomic policies and emerging consumption trends [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies and Consumer Growth - The "old-for-new" policy has been effective in boosting consumer spending, with over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales benefiting more than 360 million consumers in 2025 [2][3]. - In 2026, the focus will shift to more targeted and effective macro policies, optimizing support areas, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms [2][3]. Group 2: County Market Dynamics - The county market is emerging as a new growth engine for consumption, with the instant retail sector expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2026 [4][5]. - Major brands are accelerating their expansion into county markets, with notable growth in sectors like hospitality and dining [5]. Group 3: New Consumption Trends - New consumption hotspots are reshaping the market, including seasonal tourism driven by the ice and snow economy, which saw a 57% increase in bookings during the New Year period [6][8]. - Emotional consumption is gaining traction, with activities like rock climbing and cultural experiences driving new consumer ecosystems [7][8]. - The transformation of national cultural experiences is evident, with cities like Xi'an and Nanjing becoming popular travel destinations, integrating traditional culture with modern experiences [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the county-level market in China is showing strong consumer vitality and growth potential, becoming a new "blue ocean" for businesses to expand and seek incremental growth [1][2] - The sales performance of Hema stores in county-level cities has exceeded expectations, indicating a significant shift in consumer demand towards quality and experiential consumption in these areas [1] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that rural market sales growth is steady, with rural retail sales accounting for 38.7% of total social retail sales by November 2025 [1] Group 2 - Well-known brands in the hotel, restaurant, and retail sectors are accelerating their entry into the county-level market, reflecting optimism about the consumption prospects in these areas [2] - The rapid development of county-level hotels is highlighted, with major hotel groups expanding their presence and introducing culturally integrated products to penetrate the high-end market [2] - The consumer purchasing power in county and rural areas has significantly increased, driven by economic development and rising incomes, leading to a stronger demand for quality living [2] Group 3 - The strategy of chain brands to expand into lower-tier markets is seen as a wise move in response to market trends, as competition in first and second-tier cities intensifies [3] - The diverse and personalized consumer demands in lower-tier markets provide ample space for innovation, positioning these markets as new growth engines for consumption in China [3] - Lower-tier markets are expected to play a crucial role in promoting domestic demand and facilitating high-quality economic development [3]

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group is actively seeking to expand its brand presence by establishing 600 brand collection stores in lower-tier cities by mid-2026, with over 1,000 investors showing interest in the investment opportunity of 1 million yuan for brand agency rights [2][6]. Group 1: Investment Opportunity - The investment threshold for becoming a GAC brand agent is set at 1 million yuan, significantly lower than the traditional 4S store model which often requires around 10 million yuan [3]. - Investors are required to prepare a venue of 200-300 square meters and provide a deposit of 3 million yuan, while GAC will assist with standardized renovations [3][4]. - Despite the low entry cost, operational expenses such as rent and labor will be borne by the dealers, raising concerns about profitability in a challenging market [2][5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - A survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that 84.4% of car dealers are experiencing price inversions, with 60.4% facing price inversions exceeding 15% [2]. - The automotive market is undergoing a transformation from traditional 4S store models to a more diversified system including agency and direct sales, leading to a competitive environment between dealers and manufacturers [2][8]. - The overall market demand in first and second-tier cities is saturated, pushing manufacturers to focus on lower-tier markets for growth [8]. Group 3: Strategic Expansion - GAC's plan to open 600 brand collection stores reflects its strategy to build a skilled sales team and target county-level markets, which account for 38.35% of China's economic output [6][7]. - Other brands like BYD and Xpeng are also targeting county markets, indicating a broader industry trend towards down-market expansion [6][7]. - The establishment of charging infrastructure in rural areas is expected to support this market shift, with government initiatives promoting the development of charging stations [7]. Group 4: Risks and Concerns - The lightweight agency model may lead to challenges in after-sales service quality, as smaller dealers may lack the resources to provide adequate support [9]. - The rapid expansion of GAC's network could complicate channel management and increase operational risks for both manufacturers and dealers [9]. - Industry experts warn that the profitability of dealers is increasingly dependent on the manufacturers' product strength and pricing strategies, making the investment landscape more uncertain [9].