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中国春来(01969):在校生稳健增长,期待天平学院并表带来新增量
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-03 14:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see stable growth in student enrollment, particularly from the Anyang College Yuanyang Campus, Health College, and Jingzhou College, with the new Tianping College campus anticipated to contribute to enrollment and revenue growth after its establishment [5] - The company has a solid financial performance with FY2025 revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth of 9.8% and 7.4% respectively, indicating a positive trend in its financial health [2][4] - The company is actively expanding its international education partnerships, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects and create synergies between domestic and foreign institutions [5] Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit, and adjusted net profit are projected to be CNY 1.791 billion, CNY 0.836 billion, and CNY 0.837 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, 7.4%, and 5.9% [2] - The gross margin for FY2025 is 54.2%, with a net margin of 46.7%, showing a decline from the previous year primarily due to increased employee costs [4] - The company maintains a strong cash position with cash and cash equivalents of CNY 0.832 billion, a 5.2% increase year-on-year [4] Enrollment and Tuition Insights - The total number of enrolled students for FY2025 is 110,000, representing a 6.4% increase year-on-year [3] - Tuition fees across various colleges have shown an upward trend, with average tuition fees for different colleges increasing, indicating potential for further revenue growth [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are CNY 2.140 billion, CNY 2.404 billion, and CNY 2.631 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit projections of CNY 1.033 billion, CNY 1.172 billion, and CNY 1.290 billion [6][9] - The company is expected to maintain a strong earnings per share (EPS) growth trajectory, with FY2026 EPS projected at CNY 0.86, increasing to CNY 1.07 by FY2028 [6][9]
好未来(TAL):FY26Q1业绩点评:收入继续高增,利润超预期
EBSCN· 2025-08-04 08:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $575 million for FY26Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $31.28 million, up 174.4% year-on-year [1]. - The learning services segment, particularly small class courses, continues to be the largest revenue contributor, with a retention rate of approximately 80% [1]. - Deferred revenue at the end of FY26Q1 reached $968 million, reflecting a 50.8% year-on-year growth, indicating strong demand resilience [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding the number of learning centers to drive revenue growth, although growth rates are expected to slow compared to FY25 due to increasing base figures [1]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY26Q1, the company achieved a Non-GAAP net profit of $42.05 million, a 42.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.9%, up 3.1 percentage points [3]. - The operating profit margin for FY26Q1 was 2.5%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 4.4%, up 4.2 percentage points [3]. - The company expects continued strong revenue growth in FY26Q2, which is anticipated to be a peak business season [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of $144 million, $234 million, and $349 million for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $0.71, $1.15, and $1.72 [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are 45x, 28x, and 19x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as profitability improves [3][4].