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数字关税战争:TikTok争端背后的全球规则博弈
虎嗅APP· 2025-10-29 00:27
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of "digital tariffs" as a new form of economic warfare, particularly illustrated through the case of TikTok in the U.S., where compliance requirements effectively impose hidden costs on the platform and its users [2][4]. Group 1: Digital Tariffs and Economic Impact - The U.S. government has mandated TikTok to migrate user data to local servers, resulting in an investment of approximately $1.5 billion for restructuring [4]. - The annual expenditure for data storage and auditing has surged by over $200 million, translating to an "invisible tax" of about $1.2 per American user [5]. - The increased operational costs lead to higher advertising prices and commissions, impacting small businesses that rely on TikTok for customer acquisition [5]. Group 2: Algorithm Control and Intellectual Property - TikTok's recommendation algorithm, which contributes over 70% to its business value, is a focal point of U.S. regulatory demands, aiming to gain control over this core technology [6]. - A compromise allows TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to retain intellectual property rights while a local joint venture in the U.S. operates a copy of the algorithm, effectively turning it into a "leased asset" [6]. Group 3: Advantages of Digital Barriers - Digital tariffs circumvent multilateral trade rules, as they are framed under the guise of national security and privacy protection, allowing the U.S. to impose strict requirements selectively [8]. - The flexibility and rapid adjustment of digital barriers enable regulators to redefine "sensitive data" swiftly, making them a more agile tool compared to traditional tariffs [9]. - Digital barriers are often tied to public sentiment and social issues, making them more palatable to the domestic audience and complicating retaliatory measures from other countries [9]. Group 4: Global Digital Governance Fragmentation - The article outlines three major global camps regarding data sovereignty: the U.S. with its "long-arm jurisdiction," the EU with its stringent privacy standards, and China focusing on "sovereignty first" [11][12][13]. - The fragmentation of digital governance could lead to significant economic losses, with estimates suggesting a potential global GDP decline of 4.5% if strict data localization measures are implemented [15]. - Small businesses are particularly vulnerable, as rising costs associated with compliance could force them to reduce marketing budgets or exit platforms like TikTok [15]. Group 5: Future Directions and Solutions - Companies are exploring proactive strategies, such as Huawei's establishment of local data centers in Germany to meet regulatory requirements while retaining control over technology [18]. - Regional agreements like the RCEP could pave the way for coordinated digital rules, potentially forming a "data tariff alliance" among member countries [19]. - The competition for data value chain pricing power signifies a shift from product competition to rule competition in the digital economy [21].
8.27黄金破高大涨45美金 决战3400
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 08:06
黄金V型反转,一柱擎天,上演惊天逆袭。多空争夺后,再次延续破高,大涨45美金,再战3400关口。 今天的走势 昨晚快涨快跌,多空激烈争夺后。 昨天主要因素: 一方面,特朗普继续进攻美联储,上周鲍威尔认怂,依然没有躲过特朗普的追讨,这次又开始对准了美 联储理事库克,继续干预美联储内部的决策,从解决内部人员开始,一步步冲击美联储独立性,美主权 信用风险升温,美债收益率走强,利好黄金逆袭。 再次上破,到今天最高3395。 再次回落调整,下方再穿3380的位置。 下方看3373位置,看反弹的机会。 上方延续,再破高,面临3400的关口。 再次延续,看涨延续,上看3438的阻力。 不过,处在3400下方,再次回调。 下方跌破了3373的位置,继续看到3350的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后,到本月临近尾声,迎来连续4个月横盘。而且整体围绕3300关口,不断高位调整。本 月依然不改震荡格局,大范围内多空争夺了4个月,随时大幅突破,多空迎最后决战。 操作方面,黄金逆袭后,延续多头,看反弹延续,关注3373和3350做多的机会。此外,黄金上方面临关 键阻力区域,关注3400和3438做空的机会。 另外一方面,特朗普本性不改,万税爷 ...
关税博弈:21世纪全球经济的隐形战场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 11:44
一、从大航海时代到数字时代:关税的权力基因 关税作为国家主权的经济符号,自15世纪西班牙设立"百万金税"起,就始终是大国博弈的筹码。书中通 过西班牙帝国、英国东印度公司、美国《斯穆特-霍利关税法》等经典案例,揭示关税政策如何成为铸 造经济霸权的铁锤。当历史镜头切换至WTO多哈回合谈判破裂、中美贸易战芯片关税升级、欧盟碳边 境调节机制落地,作者以经济学家的严谨与历史学家的纵深,解构关税政策背后的大国权力更迭密码。 二、全球化时代的三维博弈场 在全球化浪潮与逆全球化思潮激烈碰撞的今天,一场没有硝烟的战争正在重塑世界经济秩序——这就是 《关税博弈》所揭示的当代国际经济最核心的博弈场域。本书以犀利的洞察力穿透贸易数据的迷雾,为 读者呈现一幅21世纪关税战的立体画卷。 面对"关税战-通胀-衰退"的恶性循环,本书并非止步于问题揭示,更提出具有实操价值的解决方案: 构建"关税弹性机制",借鉴新加坡可变关税体系应对供应链冲击 创建"数字关税沙盒",在自贸试验区探索数据跨境流动的税收新范式 推行"关税能力建设",帮助发展中国家提升规则制定参与度 本书创造性地提出"关税博弈三维模型": 宏观维度,解析G20峰会关税承诺与实际行动 ...