Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's strategy report indicates that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surpassed the previously set benchmark target of 1250 points and is moving towards the optimistic target of 1350 points, driven by the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The initial prediction in June was for a single rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in December, but the forecast has now been revised to a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, starting from September 17 [1] - The expected rate cuts are anticipated to weaken the US dollar and strengthen emerging market currencies, providing room for emerging market central banks to initiate, extend, or resume their own rate-cutting cycles [1] - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging markets, specifically in India, South Korea, Brazil, the Philippines, and South Africa [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch indicates that the depreciation of the US dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, increasing economic and fiscal pressures on major oil-exporting countries [1] - The reduction of US international aid has heightened risks faced by some emerging markets [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar alleviates the burden of dollar-denominated debt for emerging markets [1]