在零售投资者涌入与机构仓位拥挤并存的华尔街时代，本周市场证明了共识的脆弱性——当交易拥挤到极致时，即便小幅波动也能引发剧烈震 荡。 华尔街见闻提及，周五特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，引爆了贵金属"血洗"。黄金暴跌10%，过去两天抹去了5万亿市值。现货白银一度暴跌 37%，现货铂金重挫逾16%，纽铜则回吐昨日全部涨幅。 （金银铜铂1月份走势） 在近来金银价格连续飙升后，拥挤的多头头寸、创纪录的看涨期权购买量以及极端的杠杆水平，令市场处于随时可能触发"伽马挤压"的状态。 Pepperstone高级研究策略师Michael Brown表示： 市场已经非常泡沫化了，只需要一点触发因素就能引发这样的走势。 除贵金属外，其他共识交易同样承压。周五美元指数创下5月以来最大单日涨幅，重创做空美元的投资者。新兴市场股市相对美股的表现创同期以 来最差水平；备受追捧的AI交易也出现动摇。 数万亿美元的资金在短时间内快速流转，沉重的仓位配置几乎不留容错空间。Manulife John Hancock Investments联席首席投资策略师Emily Roland 表示： 任何以抛物线方式上涨的东西，通常也会以抛物线方式下跌，很大程 ...

1月29日，印尼股市再度暴跌，印尼综指盘中一度跌超8%，并触发熔断机制，市场交易暂停30分钟。 恢复交易后继续暴跌，一度跌超10%。截至发稿，跌超6%。 昨日， 印尼综指盘中一度跌超8%，并触发 熔断机制，截至收盘，跌7.35%。 编辑丨瑜见 明晟表示，将立即暂停部分指数调整，并冻结新增成分股，直到印尼监管机构解决上市公司股权过度集中等问题。 明晟警告称，若印尼在5月之前仍未能在信息透明度方面取得足够进展，将重新评估印尼市场的准入状况。 这可能导致所有印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重被下调，甚至面临降级的风险。 据央视财经报道，印尼股市此次暴跌的主要原因是指数编制公司明晟（MSCI）对印尼股市的可投资性提出担忧。 ...

明晟（MSCI）警告称，若印尼在5月之前仍未能在信息透明度方面取得足够进展，将重新评估印尼市场 的准入状况。这可能导致所有印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重被下调，甚至面临降级的风险。 前一个交易日（1月28日），雅加达综合指数报收于8320.56点，较前一交易日下跌7.35%。 北京时间1月29日早盘，印度尼西亚基准股指雅加达综合指数盘中一度跌超8%，并触发熔断机制，市场 交易暂停30分钟。印尼基准股指恢复交易后继续暴跌，截至发稿跌幅扩大至约10%。 据央视财经报道，此次暴跌的主要原因是指数编制公司明晟（MSCI）对印尼股市的可投资性提出担 忧。明晟（MSCI）表示，将立即暂停部分指数调整，并冻结新增成分股，直到印尼监管机构解决上市 公司股权过度集中等问题。 ...

明晟（MSCI）警告称，若印尼在5月之前仍未能在信息透明度方面取得足够进展，将重新评估 印尼市场的准入状况。这可能导致所有印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重被下调，甚至面临 降级的风险。 前一个交易日（1月28日），雅加达综合指数报收于8320.56点，较前一交易日下跌7.35%。 据央视财经报道， 此次暴跌的主要原因是指数编制公司明晟（MSCI）对印尼股市的可投资性 提出担忧。 明晟（MSCI）表示，将立即暂停部分指数调整，并冻结新增成分股，直到印尼监 管机构解决上市公司股权过度集中等问题。 北京时间1月29日早盘，印度尼西亚基准股指雅加达综合指数盘中一度跌超8%，并触发熔断机 制，市场交易暂停3 0分钟。印尼基准股指恢复交易后继续暴跌，截至发稿跌幅扩大至约 10%。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 来源丨央视财经、21世纪经济报道 编辑丨曾静娇 京东、阿里、百度、腾讯集体下跌 短短4天，黄金连破7道整百关口 黄金猛冲5600美元后回落，专家：出现任何回调都是买入机会 SFC 21君荐读 ...

印尼股市暴跌，此前MSCI Inc．表示，在监管机构解决上市公司股权过于集中的问题之前，将暂停某些 指数调整。 基准雅加达综合指数一度下跌8.82%，创9个多月来最大跌幅；盘中一度触发暂停交易30分钟。 该指数编制机构在声明中表示，将立即停止新增指数成分股，并冻结增加可供投资者购买的股票数量， 理由是持续存在"基本投资可行性问题"，以及投资者对潜在蓄意操纵价格感到担忧。 如果印尼在5月份之前未能取得足够的透明度改进，MSCI将重新评估该国的市场可投资状况，此举可能 导致所有印尼公司在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重降低，甚至有可能被降级为前沿市场（frontier- market）。 印尼证券交易所高管Iman Rachman在记者会上表示，交易所对MSCI的做法表达了反对意见，并将致力 于符合MSCI对公司持股透明度的要求。该交易所之前表示，已采取措施提升透明度，包括在交易所官 网上公布自由流通股数据。印尼金融服务管理局、交易所和印尼中央证券存管处将继续与MSCI讨论相 关事项。 MSCI此前曾提议收紧印尼证券自由流通股的定义，是指可供交易的股票数量，并且是股票在基准指数 中权重的一个关键决定因素。该公司表示， ...

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Chinese assets is increasing, with major international banks like Goldman Sachs and HSBC recommending an "overweight" position on A-shares [1][2] - A recent survey by HSBC indicates that over half of the respondents are optimistic about the A-share market, a significant increase from about one-third in June [1][2] - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index from 1370 to 1480 points, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 10% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of Q2, northbound capital's total market value reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% from the end of Q1 [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, with significant inflows in May and June totaling $18.8 billion [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are boosting investor confidence, including policy support and a favorable economic outlook [3] - China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with rapid advancements in industries such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine [3] Group 4 - Long-term capital inflows are a key reason for foreign optimism towards Chinese assets, supported by domestic institutions like insurance and pension funds [4] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to further attract funds into Asian markets [4] Group 5 - Investor interest in the A-share market has significantly increased, driven by ample liquidity and accelerated technological innovation [5] - With households holding substantial additional savings (5% of GDP), there is potential for further revaluation in innovative sectors like robotics [5] Group 6 - The ongoing capital market reforms and opening up are crucial for attracting foreign investment in Chinese assets [6][7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to expedite key measures for capital market openness by 2025, including optimizing the QFII system [6][7]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's strategy report indicates that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surpassed the previously set benchmark target of 1250 points and is moving towards the optimistic target of 1350 points, driven by the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The initial prediction in June was for a single rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in December, but the forecast has now been revised to a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, starting from September 17 [1] - The expected rate cuts are anticipated to weaken the US dollar and strengthen emerging market currencies, providing room for emerging market central banks to initiate, extend, or resume their own rate-cutting cycles [1] - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging markets, specifically in India, South Korea, Brazil, the Philippines, and South Africa [1]

Group 1 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 0.9%, reaching its highest level since early 2022 [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, valued at $87 billion, increased by 0.7% [1] - An index measuring the currencies of developing countries also saw an increase, with the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint leading the gains [1]