今年新兴市场货币整体表现不俗：摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场货币指数7月创下历史新高，年内涨幅已超6%，有望迎来2017年以来的最佳 年度成绩。接受路透社采访的交易员、基金经理和分析师大多预计，这一良好态势在明年也将延续。 MSCI新兴市场货币指数上涨 匈牙利福林向来是小众的新兴市场货币，但自美国总统特朗普今年1月就职以来，其交易量已增长超一倍。在特朗普宣布全面的"解放日"进口 关税政策后，交易员对这一货币的关注度更是持续攀升。 在日均交易量近10万亿美元的全球外汇市场中，交易员、策略师及对冲基金均表示，此番交易量增长绝非短期偶然现象。 今年以来，匈牙利福林兑美元汇率已升值约20%，有望创下近25年来的最佳年度表现，同时跻身2025年表现最佳的新兴市场货币之列。 此次新兴市场货币走强，源于美元波动加剧且持续走软。这一态势促使投资者重新考量自身的美元资产敞口，且开始质疑长期以来对美元走 向与地位的固有认知。与此同时，投资者在推进资产配置多元化、减少对美国资产依赖的过程中，押注南非、匈牙利等多个发展中国家的货 币价值将进一步提升。 摩根大通新兴市场固定收益策略研究主管乔尼·古尔登（Jonny Goulden）称："我 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's strategy report indicates that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surpassed the previously set benchmark target of 1250 points and is moving towards the optimistic target of 1350 points, driven by the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The initial prediction in June was for a single rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in December, but the forecast has now been revised to a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, starting from September 17 [1] - The expected rate cuts are anticipated to weaken the US dollar and strengthen emerging market currencies, providing room for emerging market central banks to initiate, extend, or resume their own rate-cutting cycles [1] - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging markets, specifically in India, South Korea, Brazil, the Philippines, and South Africa [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's emerging market strategy report indicates that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surpassed the previously set benchmark target of 1250 points and is moving towards an optimistic target of 1350 points, driven by the anticipated easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Predictions - The bank initially expected only one rate cut of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in December, but now forecasts a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, starting from September 17 [1] - An additional rate cut of 25 basis points is anticipated in 2026, which is expected to accelerate the weakening of the dollar and strengthen emerging market currencies [1] Group 2: Emerging Market Central Banks - The shift in Federal Reserve policy provides room for emerging market central banks to initiate, extend, or resume their own rate-cutting cycles [1] - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging markets, specifically in India, South Korea, Brazil, the Philippines, and South Africa [1]