朋友们，刚刚打开行情软件，越南股市那根大阴线看得我都愣了——单日跌超5%，直接创下六个月来最大跌幅！别光看数字吓人，这背后藏着的"数万亿越 南盾地产雷"，才是真让人揪心的事儿。我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，一直盯着中长线投资的门道，今天就用聊天的方式，跟大家说说这越南市场到 底出了啥问题。 其实这次暴跌不是没征兆的，上周五越南政府一份监察报告一出来，就像给市场扔了颗炸弹。报告里明明白白写着，67家债券发行人里，不管是地产公司还 是银行，都查出了一堆"猫腻"——资金挪用、信息不透明、还不上本金利息，说白了就是"钱没用到正地方，还藏着掖着"。 这里面最扎眼的，就是越南第二大地产商Novaland。咱们先不说数万亿越南盾有多吓人（差不多几十亿人民币），关键是它的操作太离谱：发了1.5万亿越 南盾的债券，本该用在项目上，结果绕了好几圈，把钱转到了关联公司手里，甚至连子公司的注册资本都是"空的"。更要命的是，跟它有关系的20家发债公 司里，还有近17万亿越南盾的债没还，好几家已经逾期了，连本带利都给不出，这不是明摆着"爆雷"吗？ 更让人担心的是银行也掺了进来。五家被查的主要银行里，有三家直接把债券募集的钱挪去放短期 ...

Market Overview - UBS estimates recent global growth momentum corresponds to an annualized growth rate of only 13% [1] - UBS anticipates a short-term consolidation in global stock markets, with potential for further upside in the medium term, but also an increasing probability of a bubble [1] US Market Analysis - US stock market demonstrates resilience due to strong structural buying forces like corporate stock buybacks and individual pensions [2] - UBS expects continued positive earnings growth for US companies, driven by AI and a weaker dollar [2] Emerging Markets Analysis - UBS suggests emerging market stocks face downside risk as new reciprocal tariff rates are announced, with over 35% of their overall revenue coming from overseas [2] - Emerging markets do not appear to have priced in this risk [2] Monetary Policy - UBS anticipates potential for significant Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening labor market, leading to lower US Treasury yields [2] - UBS believes investors are overestimating the short-term increase in Treasury supply [2] - Stronger labor market data could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts [2]