新务实主义

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工银国际首席经济学家程实:房地产政策重心应向“稳需求”倾斜
news flash· 2025-05-26 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The focus of real estate policy should shift towards "stabilizing demand" in the short term, while maintaining a balance of "ensuring supply" and "basic needs" in the long term [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Recent economic data from April indicates a recovery in consumption and optimization of economic structure [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Short-term policies in the real estate market can moderately lean towards "stabilizing demand" [1] - Long-term strategies should emphasize the construction of a multi-level and sustainable housing supply system [1] Group 3: Corporate Strategy - Companies should adapt to the "new pragmatic" consumption trend by focusing on the dual demand for "quality-price ratio" and "supporting services" [1] - There is potential for growth by integrating products and services in areas such as "education + technology," "healthcare + smart devices," and "elderly care + customized services" [1]
专访工银国际首席经济学家程实:房地产政策重心应向“稳需求”倾斜,企业可顺应“新务实主义”消费趋势|大咖谈经济
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-26 06:54
Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to April totaled 147,024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [1] Structural Challenges - Despite the positive growth in industrial and consumer sectors, structural challenges remain, including the need for further improvement in residents' income and the ongoing bottoming out of the real estate market [2] - The external environment poses risks such as geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, but there is potential for China to diversify its export markets and enhance its high-tech product offerings [2] Manufacturing Growth - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry achieved high growth rates of 9.8% and 10% respectively, indicating ongoing industrial structure optimization [2][3] - Government support through fiscal measures and subsidies is suggested to bolster emerging technology products and enhance market efficiency [2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, and policies should focus on stabilizing demand while ensuring risk control [4] - Short-term measures may include lowering mortgage rates and optimizing city-specific support policies to meet housing demand [4][5] Consumer Spending - The introduction of differentiated subsidies is recommended to stimulate consumption, particularly in lower-tier cities and rural areas [6] - The shift in consumption patterns from "external display" to "internal entertainment" highlights the importance of service consumption in driving economic growth [7][8] Foreign Trade - In April, exports increased by 9.3%, with a notable shift towards emerging markets, which helps mitigate risks from traditional markets [11] - Future focus areas for foreign trade include enhancing the resilience of supply chains, deepening regional cooperation, and improving the competitiveness of products in international markets [12]